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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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21 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Speaking of Sweden.  Maybe a year from now these numbers will balance and come close.  But as of yesterday, I'd rather be in any Scandinavian Country but...

sweden.JPG.efec608ec11fbcde661fe1c547c0d759.JPG

Here is Sweden's COVID deaths per million compared to all of its neighbors on the North and Baltic seas. (Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-07..&country=BEL+DNK+EST+FIN+DEU+IRL+LVA+LTU+NLD+POL+SWE+GBR)  It seems likely that there are many factors involved in the result.

total-covid-deaths-per-million.png

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Very large but non-randomized study on chloroquine - 96,000 patients, 671 hospitals, 6 continents. Results are not positive.

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620311806.pdf

 

chloroquin.jpg

It is pretty much a given that once you are sick enough to be hospitalized, it is not going to help.  Maybe because it is under a controlled environment and the results will not get contaminated by individual choices.  A study of non-hospitalized patients taking it would be worthwhile.  From previous sentence, that depends on good faith of individuals to follow the regiment.   I see Germany is planning on doing one, but their results are not expected until 2021.

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1 hour ago, icicleman said:

Here is Sweden's COVID deaths per million compared to all of its neighbors on the North and Baltic seas. (Source: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&time=2020-03-07..&country=BEL+DNK+EST+FIN+DEU+IRL+LVA+LTU+NLD+POL+SWE+GBR)  It seems likely that there are many factors involved in the result.

total-covid-deaths-per-million.png

Our World In Data.  Dr. John Campbell loves this site.

 

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Very large but non-randomized study on chloroquine - 96,000 patients, 671 hospitals, 6 continents. Results are not positive.

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620311806.pdf

 

chloroquin.jpg

This is called a meta-analysis--it's a lump sum look at several studies that are broken down to look at different endpoints across multiple trials.  This data matches what we've seen (often with full statistical significance)--HCQ with or without azithromycin just doesn't work, and especially not in late disease.  We're not using HCQ at all any more, and pulled it off ALL guideline statements once the VA study came out.

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13 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Sickening application of politics

I've been desperately trying to keep politics out of my posts here, because this is a healthcare and people issue--NOT a political issue (or at least it shouldn't be). 

Whoever or whatever chain of command was responsible for this mistake deliberate misleading of the American people (not to mention exposing the American people to substantial risk solely for political gain or to appease a certain viewpoint should be criminally prosecuted.

"Plandemic" (I'm sure you've seen the video) stars a disgraced "scientist" who falsified data to make her own specious conclusions look correct.  Falsifying scientific data makes you a pariah.  This--the falsification of public health data, MISSION CRITICAL public health data--should make you an inmate.  Blanket statement, don't care what bullshit party is involved.  Prosecute EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

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Interesting still more folks have died from Pneumonia since the 1st case than have died from covid-19. Also, great news that the death rate is really plummeting quickly!!!

image.png.8f779e5b9e883c92454909487967eff1.png

 

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6 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Interesting still more folks have died from Pneumonia since the 1st case than have died from covid-19. Also, great news that the death rate is really plummeting quickly!!!

image.png.8f779e5b9e883c92454909487967eff1.png

Be cautious interpreting data.

"Pneumonia alone" is (Pneumonia)-(Pneumonia and COVID-19), so in that time frame, COVID-19 deaths are 73,639, while pneumonia (without COVID-19) is 57,235.  The declining death rate is also due to interventions taken 3-6 weeks ago.  We'll see in 3-6 weeks how the re-opening progresses.

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1 hour ago, Tiburon said:

Be cautious interpreting data.

"Pneumonia alone" is (Pneumonia)-(Pneumonia and COVID-19), so in that time frame, COVID-19 deaths are 73,639, while pneumonia (without COVID-19) is 57,235.  The declining death rate is also due to interventions taken 3-6 weeks ago.  We'll see in 3-6 weeks how the re-opening progresses.

Yep still very close between Pneumonia and Covid.....that death rate drop is eye popping especially with all of those states opening...

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1 hour ago, chescopawxman said:

Yep still very close between Pneumonia and Covid.....that death rate drop is eye popping especially with all of those states opening...

I wish it was true, but it isn't; it is incomplete.

2 hours ago, Tiburon said:

Be cautious interpreting data.

"Pneumonia alone" is (Pneumonia)-(Pneumonia and COVID-19), so in that time frame, COVID-19 deaths are 73,639, while pneumonia (without COVID-19) is 57,235.  The declining death rate is also due to interventions taken 3-6 weeks ago.  We'll see in 3-6 weeks how the re-opening progresses.

Yeah this is why:

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

COVID Deaths

Florida COVID dashboard......2190.....CDC.....1698

Pennsylvania COVID dashboard.....4984....CDC.....4439

New Jersey COVID dashboard.......10985....CDC....9253

 

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1 hour ago, chescopawxman said:

Yep still very close between Pneumonia and Covid.....that death rate drop is eye popping especially with all of those states opening...

Table appears to be missing most recent deaths.  Per worldometer there were 1360 US COVID deaths yesterday and for the week of May 16 10076 vs 1915 in table.

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7 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Table appears to be missing most recent deaths.  Per worldometer there were 1360 US COVID deaths yesterday and for the week of May 16 10076 vs 1915 in table.

CDC is waiting on the death certificates to make it official.

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Just now, Rainshadow5.8 said:

They are waiting on the death certificates to make it official.

Makes sense. Should have read your post before I posted. Also wonder if some of the pneumonia deaths are undiagnosed COVID since the pnuemonia hump tracks the COVID hump closely.

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I simply have not had the time to read any papers other than one several weeks back, but I'm absorbing info second-hand by reading this thread. 

So in that context, it's becoming increasingly clear that the federal government and some (many?) state governments are gaming the numbers to justify whichever decision they have made regarding loosening of restrictions. So cynical of them because the huge majority of us citizens don't know any better.

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3 hours ago, Tiburon said:

I've been desperately trying to keep politics out of my posts here, because this is a healthcare and people issue--NOT a political issue (or at least it shouldn't be). 

Whoever or whatever chain of command was responsible for this mistake deliberate misleading of the American people (not to mention exposing the American people to substantial risk solely for political gain or to appease a certain viewpoint should be criminally prosecuted.

"Plandemic" (I'm sure you've seen the video) stars a disgraced "scientist" who falsified data to make her own specious conclusions look correct.  Falsifying scientific data makes you a pariah.  This--the falsification of public health data, MISSION CRITICAL public health data--should make you an inmate.  Blanket statement, don't care what bullshit party is involved.  Prosecute EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM.

Agreed, falsification of data by a scientist is gaslighting. 

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2 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

Yep still very close between Pneumonia and Covid.....that death rate drop is eye popping especially with all of those states opening...

Yeah, I just noticed that as well.  I'm not sure where that data (especially that last data point from 5/16 is coming from, since the data from Worldometers is drastically different:

5/10-16: 750 + 1060 + 1871 + 1822 + 1753 + 1602 + 1218 = 10, 076 deaths during this week

5/17-5/21: 865 + 1003 + 1552 + 1403 + 1418 = 6,241 deaths through Thursday this week.

Weekend days are usually lower due to DoH lag in gathering reports.

 

image.png.b5f5562fe69cc2194ad00b560d02b91c.png

I don't see that much to be overly optimistic about there.

 

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Dr. Fauci on CNBC today discussing how staying in a lockdown for too long can cause irreparable damage.

I'm sure he has held steady with his viewpoints throughout the past 6-8 weeks, but there was some fear and backlash after he testified to the Senate last week that made it seem like he was on the opposite end of the spectrum vs. what he said today. It is likely just nuance and him wanting to stay in the "middle ground" as much as possible in this tough situation. But that being said, I have to admit it was still reassuring to hear him say this.

Also, he appears to be cautiously optimistic about a vaccine (the Moderna one) by December, which is great news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-anthony-fauci-says-staying-closed-for-too-long-could-cause-irreparable-damage.html

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21 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Makes sense. Should have read your post before I posted. Also wonder if some of the pneumonia deaths are undiagnosed COVID since the pnuemonia hump tracks the COVID hump closely.

This.  100% this.

Again--this is where it crosses into politics a bit.  I've pretty much abandoned all social media except what I can extensively filter (Reddit) because some of the posts by people I call "friends" on Facebook just make me angry.

Hospitals are not incentivized to put a COVID-19 diagnosis on a death certificate, nor are they even paid more in reimbursement, and for damn sure, neither am I.

In fact, most hospitals in our area are placing hiring freezes and furloughing employees because the outpatient areas--the areas where hospitals make an overwhelming portion of their revenue--aren't bringing in a dime.  This is why the gaslighting idiots say that "hospitals and parking lots are empty."  That and because we aren't allowing visitors except in maternity and to allow family to say goodbye to loved ones.  We just recently started allowing people up in those situations where patient's death was imminent--goodbyes were done via iPads and FaceTime before this week.

Back to my initial point--if a patient tests negative (and the nasopharyngeal swab test has a 20-30% false negative rate) and passes, we ARE NOT PERMITTED to list COVID-19 on their EDRS death certificate as a cause of death--even if they test positive in post-mortem examination.  I've personally had at least eight patients that I've actively treated (that I've been notified of--we are no longer being notified of potential exposures from patients who were presumed negative only to end up positive for the virus) that tested negative multiple times only to test positive later on, including post-mortem.  I'm careful.  I wear full PPE and assume that everyone I encounter is positive, but you can see how that type of thing could be a little inconvenient.  People spreading these insane conspiracy theories should swing by and let me take them on a tour.

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56 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I simply have not had the time to read any papers other than one several weeks back, but I'm absorbing info second-hand by reading this thread. 

So in that context, it's becoming increasingly clear that the federal government and some (many?) state governments are gaming the numbers to justify whichever decision they have made regarding loosening of restrictions. So cynical of them because the huge majority of us citizens don't know any better.

To me it is a half truth.  They are not with-holding confirmed coronavirus cases, but by combining antibody tests (which I think are serology here on the GA site) in with the coronavirus tests they are coming up with a lower positivity rate.  This would to a stat geek like me infer that they are catching all of the Covid cases when in reality they may not.

So yes this bump up in testing (which I thought was great) is polluted by antibody tests being thrown in.  BTW from the article of listed states it is not just a (D) or (R) state that is doing it.   

4444444444.JPG.7839ce4288d21290fe4037693d1476c4.JPG

4.JPG.85a9b60f253b1260e241d6234c6974d9.JPG

BTW these hospitalizations and ICU numbers suck in comparison with NJ.  NJ has 3,049 COVID patients hospitalized and 846 patients in ICU beds. Again assuming both state numbers are legit. 

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1 hour ago, Tiburon said:

This.  100% this.

Again--this is where it crosses into politics a bit.  I've pretty much abandoned all social media except what I can extensively filter (Reddit) because some of the posts by people I call "friends" on Facebook just make me angry.

Hospitals are not incentivized to put a COVID-19 diagnosis on a death certificate, nor are they even paid more in reimbursement, and for damn sure, neither am I.

In fact, most hospitals in our area are placing hiring freezes and furloughing employees because the outpatient areas--the areas where hospitals make an overwhelming portion of their revenue--aren't bringing in a dime.  This is why the gaslighting idiots say that "hospitals and parking lots are empty."  That and because we aren't allowing visitors except in maternity and to allow family to say goodbye to loved ones.  We just recently started allowing people up in those situations where patient's death was imminent--goodbyes were done via iPads and FaceTime before this week.

Back to my initial point--if a patient tests negative (and the nasopharyngeal swab test has a 20-30% false negative rate) and passes, we ARE NOT PERMITTED to list COVID-19 on their EDRS death certificate as a cause of death--even if they test positive in post-mortem examination.  I've personally had at least eight patients that I've actively treated (that I've been notified of--we are no longer being notified of potential exposures from patients who were presumed negative only to end up positive for the virus) that tested negative multiple times only to test positive later on, including post-mortem.  I'm careful.  I wear full PPE and assume that everyone I encounter is positive, but you can see how that type of thing could be a little inconvenient.  People spreading these insane conspiracy theories should swing by and let me take them on a tour.

You would think that evil cabal of calling every death a COVID death for $$$$$$$ would at least do a better job at counting deaths.

I dealt with Dr. Jeff Moran from the Philly medical examiners office for 22 years with respect to heat related deaths in Philadelphia.  It is pretty obvious to even a meteorologist if you were being snowballed (I never was).  It was easy to match heat deaths to weather.  Not that there was $$$$ to it.  If anything it was the Chamber of Commerce nightmare.  It felt like Philadelphia was the heat death capital of the Northeast in comparison to D.C. & NYC.

I can understand if COVID deaths accounted for every mortality (as the gaslighters would want you to believe), but shouldn't they get that count right first?  Plus if COVID (I believe) was here much earlier, wouldn't some of those influenza/pneumonia deaths really have been COVID deaths?

NYC has to do a much better job at cheating.

3.JPG.6b22aef21d054f01823c8bb1c35137ef.JPG

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e5.htm

BTW speaking of gaslighters on FB.  There is a weather weenie/spotter from American who works as a mortician.  He posted an article what he thought would once and for all put an end to this conspiracy theory and lo and behold he was bombarded with responses from his "friends" pretty much telling him not to believe what he was seeing with his own eyes. Sad.

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Dr. Fauci on CNBC today discussing how staying in a lockdown for too long can cause irreparable damage.

I'm sure he has held steady with his viewpoints throughout the past 6-8 weeks, but there was some fear and backlash after he testified to the Senate last week that made it seem like he was on the opposite end of the spectrum vs. what he said today. It is likely just nuance and him wanting to stay in the "middle ground" as much as possible in this tough situation. But that being said, I have to admit it was still reassuring to hear him say this.

Also, he appears to be cautiously optimistic about a vaccine (the Moderna one) by December, which is great news.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/dr-anthony-fauci-says-staying-closed-for-too-long-could-cause-irreparable-damage.html

As a scientist I would expect him to be cautious about forward looking statements.  If it were September and at day 7 the Euro passed Hurricane X 100 miles east of Atlantic City, I wouldn't say the threat from this hurricane is over.  IMO our problem was this virus was spreading much longer than we realized and everyone (including Dr. Fauci) underestimated how contagious it was.  Our experience and the UK's experience (let's go with herd immunity, oh crap everyone is getting sick, nevermind, close the door, close the door!) was similar even though our initial intent was not to go down that route.  Unfortunately we wrecked the economy and it is debatable how much are we now ahead of the curve with regard to COVID.  Moderna.  I am glad there about 7 or 8 companies out there in addition to Moderna that have a shot at a vaccine.  Virus vaccines are not necessarily a slam dunk, so I am glad there is more than one golf club in the bag.

 

 

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21 hours ago, Tiburon said:

There ARE children having serious issues in other places.  The idea behind the school closing is to limit the most obvious vector for spread of the virus.  If you have an asymptomatic carrier that takes the virus to school, whether or not those kids actually become symptomatic, you now have an immediate vector to spread that virus, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, to others in the children’s families.   Even if the virus did NOTHING to children, which isn’t true at all,  how many kids live at home with parents with comorbidities or grandparents with comorbidities?  They’re bringing the virus right into their homes.

Also, my kids both managed to make principal’s list this marking period (for literally the first time ever for each of them)—with two full time and beyond working healthcare-professional parents (my wife is a registered nurse).  We just kept going when we got home and helped them with all their work (after showering off all the COVID).  I’m fairly confident that my kids aren’t behind.  I’d actually be more likely to say that they’re vastly ahead of where they were before all this.  

 

You are rich people with chrome books. Many inner city kids haven't been heard from since the shut down

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3 hours ago, Harbourton said:

You are rich people with chrome books. Many inner city kids haven't been heard from since the shut down

I didn’t know that living in a town with a median household income of $50k counted me as a rich person.  In fact, our school district lent out its cache of almost 1000 Chromebooks to kids who didn’t have any devices to access the internet.  0
 

I’m sure that some kids are struggling.  I’m sure some are struggling in my town.  I can tell you that my kids get literally HOURS of work each day.  Yes, my kids have a PC and a Chromebook to do their work on.  Yes, I put in a great deal of effort to keep them on track, as have many of my friends and the parents of the kids I coach in this town, whether they’ve borrowed Chromebooks or not.

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7 hours ago, Harbourton said:

You are rich people with chrome books.

Lol. That’s news to me. My kids are using $300 laptops (about the cheapest we could find).  The stimulus check Trump sent also verifies we are anything but “rich”. 

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