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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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National Geographic is providing freebie maps on the change of Coronavirus during the past week.  This one is week ending 5/15:

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59 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Testing is increasing, so there were likely more unconfirmed cases with bad outcomes in the past.

BTW a high school/college friend of mine whose friend was hospitalized with it and since released, he still had some symptoms thru 45 days.  It is amazing the differences in how it impacts/does not impact people.

 

Additional testing is a good explanation. Roughly 10% fewer deaths per new case vs 2 weeks ago

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26 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Additional testing is a good explanation. Roughly 10% fewer deaths per new case vs 2 weeks ago

Yeah in the month of May so far no day has had less than 232,000 tests.  Apr 16th-30th  12 of the 15 days had less than 232,000 tests, 8 of them <200,000 tests.

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Do I have to wear a face mask swimming in the ocean?  If  I get caught in a rip current, do the life guards have to maintain a six foot distance? IAre private pools allowed to be filled? Why is the women's bathroom only open at my golf course? We are so deep into the weeds no one knows the answers. At some point, the people HAVE to be trusted to to do the right thing without drones and social distancing police. JMO

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47 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

Do I have to wear a face mask swimming in the ocean?  If  I get caught in a rip current, do the life guards have to maintain a six foot distance? IAre private pools allowed to be filled? Why is the women's bathroom only open at my golf course? We are so deep into the weeds no one knows the answers. At some point, the people HAVE to be trusted to to do the right thing without drones and social distancing police. JMO

At least one bathroom was open. Well anyone’s health is directly correlated to the least common denominator individual you come in closest contact with on any given day.

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@Chubbs, I think this is why your estimates are running high.  In spite of the rhetoric about testing, it is increasing and more importantly, the positivity rate is decreasing!

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2 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Do I have to wear a face mask swimming in the ocean?  If  I get caught in a rip current, do the life guards have to maintain a six foot distance? IAre private pools allowed to be filled? Why is the women's bathroom only open at my golf course? We are so deep into the weeds no one knows the answers. At some point, the people HAVE to be trusted to to do the right thing without drones and social distancing police. JMO

I hear you, I really do. I was strongly hoping that people would do the right thing. But I have an illustration of a public response to counter that, albeit from a different state.

One of my best friends is a bartender at an upscale restaurant in Branson, Missouri. On the first day of MO opening back up, he went to a number of establishments to support industry workers. 

Although the local Chili's did everything right, everywhere else he went, there was a total lack of compliance by patrons, and more importantly, zero, ZERO, compliance by the other establishments. When he called the City and County, he was blown off.

I'm raring to support local restaurants by dining in at establishments that take their role responsibly. But given what my buddy said, it's clear that people cannot be relied upon to do the right thing. 

Okay, I'm stepping down from my soapbox now.

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We took a drive up north and west along the Delaware River in Warren County. There is a very popular stand selling hotdogs and root beer called, I think, Hotdog Johnny. It was packed. 

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7 minutes ago, rramblings said:

We took a drive up north and west along the Delaware River in Warren County. There is a very popular stand selling hotdogs and root beer called, I think, Hotdog Johnny. It was packed. 

We will be lucky to stand in place.  

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On ‎5‎/‎16‎/‎2020 at 5:40 PM, Harbourton said:

Do I have to wear a face mask swimming in the ocean?  If  I get caught in a rip current, do the life guards have to maintain a six foot distance? IAre private pools allowed to be filled? Why is the women's bathroom only open at my golf course? We are so deep into the weeds no one knows the answers. At some point, the people HAVE to be trusted to to do the right thing without drones and social distancing police. JMO

Best quote I've ever heard about this was from George Carlin--"Think about how stupid the average person is.  Now realize that half the people out there are dumber than that."

When you work in medicine, you realize (and this is just my diminished sensitivity over the last few months talking) that Darwin was EXACTLY RIGHT.  Some people are rather unfortunate, some don't take care of themselves, others are just flat out stupid.  I look at all these protests around and see some of the people attending, no masks, screaming in people's faces, and all I can think is that I'll be seeing them in a few weeks, just not vertically.

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We just ran some data to give you an idea of the scope of COVID-19 here in our system.

We went live with a new computer system September 29 last year, so that's our baseline.  We had our first confirmed case of COVID-19 on March 14, 2020.

Between 9/29/19 and 3/13/20, we had 256 patients die in our ICUs (in 166 days).  That mortality rate (deaths to ICU admissions) is 6.2%.

Between 3/14/20 and 5/6/20 (since COVID), we've had 106 deaths in our ICUs (in 54 days).  That mortality rate is 25.5%.  To me, that is just staggering, and we haven't been hit as hard as other institutions--our average ICU volumes overall are down by more than 50%.  Our ventilator mortality rate is just short of 51%.

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1 hour ago, frankdp23 said:

Pretty interesting thread.

 

For whatever reason,  NJ's deaths are younger and the median age of hospitalization is 51 years old.  I wish they both were bar graphs.

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The dude has a political ax to grind.  Nevertheless, this doesn't exonerate a Northeast (or any) governor from a truly what the heck policy with long term care facilities. It is everywhere and something that has to be changed going forward.  One in three COVID deaths in Florida (as of 5/3) at LTC facilities and then there is the Swedish approach of herd immunity to save the old..........

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52704836

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Speaking of Sweden.  Maybe a year from now these numbers will balance and come close.  But as of yesterday, I'd rather be in any Scandinavian Country but...

sweden.JPG.efec608ec11fbcde661fe1c547c0d759.JPG

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It looks like the school closing in NJ was botched according to those stats-age groups involved were not at risk more than with influenza. One size fits all doesn't work with this virus. School kids have suffered irreparable damage unless they start schools again in August and continue to next August. Studies have shown that virtual learning by parents doesn't work. 

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3 hours ago, Harbourton said:

It looks like the school closing in NJ was botched according to those stats-age groups involved were not at risk more than with influenza. One size fits all doesn't work with this virus. School kids have suffered irreparable damage unless they start schools again in August and continue to next August. Studies have shown that virtual learning by parents doesn't work. 

There ARE children having serious issues in other places.  The idea behind the school closing is to limit the most obvious vector for spread of the virus.  If you have an asymptomatic carrier that takes the virus to school, whether or not those kids actually become symptomatic, you now have an immediate vector to spread that virus, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, to others in the children’s families.   Even if the virus did NOTHING to children, which isn’t true at all,  how many kids live at home with parents with comorbidities or grandparents with comorbidities?  They’re bringing the virus right into their homes.

Also, my kids both managed to make principal’s list this marking period (for literally the first time ever for each of them)—with two full time and beyond working healthcare-professional parents (my wife is a registered nurse).  We just kept going when we got home and helped them with all their work (after showering off all the COVID).  I’m fairly confident that my kids aren’t behind.  I’d actually be more likely to say that they’re vastly ahead of where they were before all this.  

 

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51 minutes ago, Tiburon said:

There ARE children having serious issues in other places.  The idea behind the school closing is to limit the most obvious vector for spread of the virus.  If you have an asymptomatic carrier that takes the virus to school, whether or not those kids actually become symptomatic, you now have an immediate vector to spread that virus, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, to others in the children’s families.   Even if the virus did NOTHING to children, which isn’t true at all,  how many kids live at home with parents with comorbidities or grandparents with comorbidities?  They’re bringing the virus right into their homes.

Also, my kids both managed to make principal’s list this marking period (for literally the first time ever for each of them)—with two full time and beyond working healthcare-professional parents (my wife is a registered nurse).  We just kept going when we got home and helped them with all their work (after showering off all the COVID).  I’m fairly confident that my kids aren’t behind.  I’d actually be more likely to say that they’re vastly ahead of where they were before all this.  

 

I agree. My kids (10, 7) have enjoyed and thrived at home with online learning and us around to guide them when needed. Obviously, not something I'd want permanently for them as they surely miss the social interaction (who wouldn't?). But these 2 months haven't negatively impacted them. I realize though no 2 kids are the same.

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There has been no cessation of school taxes, so hopefully the schools go back into things whenever with a surplus.  Yup, I'm nieve...

We will be told how closing the schools costs more than when they are open...

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20 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Speaking of Sweden.  Maybe a year from now these numbers will balance and come close.  But as of yesterday, I'd rather be in any Scandinavian Country but...

sweden.JPG.efec608ec11fbcde661fe1c547c0d759.JPG

Tony, do you have the primary source for this data? This is not what I expected. 

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15 hours ago, Harbourton said:

It looks like the school closing in NJ was botched according to those stats-age groups involved were not at risk more than with influenza. One size fits all doesn't work with this virus. School kids have suffered irreparable damage unless they start schools again in August and continue to next August. Studies have shown that virtual learning by parents doesn't work. 

Just before the shutdown,, my wife was afraid of going to the three schools she works at (occupational therapy assistant) because apparently there isn't a week (day?) that goes by without having snot get on her or her clothes. True story.

I think we have to assume that little kids at least are super vectors.

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