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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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Working from home has actually been rough. I'm used to having a triple monitor at the office and the laptop doesn't cut it, especially since work has not slowed down one iota. That said, I feel fortunate to even have work to do and a salary to earn. 

My wife and I closed on our first house here in the city on March 10. We were supposed to have renovations done, but obviously that's out the window for the time being. Instead, I am racing to get a home office set up so that I can "commute" to the new house for work. Sitting on our apartment couch with a laptop for 12 hours a day is driving me nuts.

As for the wife... She is an internal medicine doctor at Jeff. Her turn on the COVID floor starts tomorrow. Jeff is very low on PPE and we're a little nervous. A friend of a friend is a doctor in Queens. There are only 5 left on her team that haven't fallen ill. They've stopped all resuscitation, regardless of DNR/DNI. They literally cannot stem the tsunami. I really hope we acted early enough here in Philly and can avoid that kind of situation. The streets are so calm right now, but it's all-out calamity in the hospitals. 

 

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2 hours ago, cbelke said:

 

You that bored you are generating these graphs??   What site is this from?

 

1 hour ago, snowlurker said:

I finally took a look at this with my glasses on. Fascinating graphs. Did you generate or copy/paste?

This is the site. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR282ZdXDE8-bJICIzoObFsE81QSWua1y6ejWJoLocDn_1N-3vQIUVXaMU4

This is morbid, it is hard to believe we are talking about people.  The site estimates 80,000 deaths (they do give a range) from COVID-19.  Dr. Fauci this morning (I am not holding him to this figure) estimates 100,000 to 200,000 people. 😭

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

 

This is the site. 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR282ZdXDE8-bJICIzoObFsE81QSWua1y6ejWJoLocDn_1N-3vQIUVXaMU4

This is morbid, it is hard to believe we are talking about people.  The site estimates 80,000 deaths (they do give a range) from COVID-19.  Dr. Fauci this morning (I am not holding him to this figure) estimates 100,000 to 200,000 people. 😭

The model projections run thru Aug 4th, doesn't take into account a possible second wave of infections this fall / winter. I wonder if Dr. Fauci was referring to an estimate over the entire duration of the virus.

I posted this yesterday on another board:

On the other side of the Delaware some reasons for optimism. 

Bucks County report yesterday from the Dept of Health:

https://covid19-bucksgis.hub.arcgis.com/

After a one-day lull, COVID-19 cases shot up again today in Bucks County, posting by far the largest spike since the pandemic arrived here.

Fifty-three more people tested positive for the virus today, bringing the county’s total cases to 181. Dr. David Damsker, director of the county’s health department, attributed the large increase to a multi-day backlog of results coming in late today from expanded testing sites.

Larger sites, he said, have been testing several hundred people per day. “It doubles our largest increase to date,” Damsker said, adding that he remains encouraged that community spread continues to diminish. 

Asked about the effect of social distancing measures, Damsker said, “Soon, if not this weekend then early next week … we should not be seeing community spread if everyone is staying in their homes. We shouldn’t be seeing cases where we can’t identify the source.”

PA modeling projections:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-coronavirus-modeling-projections-hospitals-estimates-20200327.html

https://covidactnow.org/state/PA

"In Pennsylvania, the model gives a grim forecast of what sick people and health-care workers could face in the coming weeks. If no actions to restrict movement or encourage social distancing were put into place, upward of 255,000 people in the state could die. But that’s an unlikely scenario.

Actions taken by Wolf over the last two weeks, including shutting down thousands of businesses and issuing a “stay-at-home” order for 19 counties, are essential to thwarting worst-case scenarios and reducing future deaths, Henderson said.

If the order was extended to the entire state and effectively enforced, the model projects that hospitals would not be overwhelmed, fewer than 3% of the population would be infected, and about 4,000 people in Pennsylvania would die from the illness."

covid19.png.819041fd6c4fbf8d572ae2dd2342bcec.png

covid19-2.png.d82e1bb1919e0597981056bce5f616fb.png

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7 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

The model projections run thru Aug 4th, doesn't take into account a possible second wave of infections this fall / winter. I wonder if Dr. Fauci was referring to an estimate over the entire duration of the virus.

I posted this yesterday on another board:

On the other side of the Delaware some reasons for optimism. 

Bucks County report yesterday from the Dept of Health:

https://covid19-bucksgis.hub.arcgis.com/

After a one-day lull, COVID-19 cases shot up again today in Bucks County, posting by far the largest spike since the pandemic arrived here.

Fifty-three more people tested positive for the virus today, bringing the county’s total cases to 181. Dr. David Damsker, director of the county’s health department, attributed the large increase to a multi-day backlog of results coming in late today from expanded testing sites.

Larger sites, he said, have been testing several hundred people per day. “It doubles our largest increase to date,” Damsker said, adding that he remains encouraged that community spread continues to diminish. 

Asked about the effect of social distancing measures, Damsker said, “Soon, if not this weekend then early next week … we should not be seeing community spread if everyone is staying in their homes. We shouldn’t be seeing cases where we can’t identify the source.”

PA modeling projections:

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-coronavirus-modeling-projections-hospitals-estimates-20200327.html

https://covidactnow.org/state/PA

"In Pennsylvania, the model gives a grim forecast of what sick people and health-care workers could face in the coming weeks. If no actions to restrict movement or encourage social distancing were put into place, upward of 255,000 people in the state could die. But that’s an unlikely scenario.

Actions taken by Wolf over the last two weeks, including shutting down thousands of businesses and issuing a “stay-at-home” order for 19 counties, are essential to thwarting worst-case scenarios and reducing future deaths, Henderson said.

If the order was extended to the entire state and effectively enforced, the model projects that hospitals would not be overwhelmed, fewer than 3% of the population would be infected, and about 4,000 people in Pennsylvania would die from the illness."

covid19.png.819041fd6c4fbf8d572ae2dd2342bcec.png

covid19-2.png.d82e1bb1919e0597981056bce5f616fb.png

I might have seen this model posted somewhere else.  It does paint a more morbid picture if nothing is done.  Dr. Fauci I am not sure.  Hopefully by the fall I hope some anti-viral cocktail would become available to at least reduce the number of people who would need ventilators.

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I always work from home - unless traveling to a client (not happening anytime soon) - doing lots of Zoom meetings with clients - works great! We should have a group Zoom forum call at some point -thoughts?  The biggest change for me is kids are home from school. Overall, I am optimistic as while the number of cases will naturally continue to grow exponentially over the next few weeks the good news is the mortality rate if falling and while any and all deaths are tragic....it appears US rates may end up being much lower than the rest of the world. Let's all hope so!!

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Personally I'm doing fine, able to work from home and just hunkering down and trying to pass the time until this all passes (YouTube and video games really help lol). The region has been relatively spared of the virus (Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland and Cape May counties have less than 50 positive cases combined at this time).  Some of the big debates going on down here are seasonal homeowners coming to the shore from far away to "ride out" the virus, thus clogging up some of the few resources available in shore towns during the offseason, and the possibility of closing some of the beaches which has some residents rightfully upset - since they pay the taxes, they feel they should enjoy the beach.

It's estimated the AC casinos are losing over $700,000 a day compared to last March with everything being closed. I didn't move down here til 2012 (and didn't live here year-round til I got back from college in 2016) but I had heard that the 2008 recession hit the region particularly hard and lingered for a while. Luckily my career isn't casino-related but I can't say the same for some family members, so I'm hoping things will really clear up by Memorial Day in order for a great summer season.

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We're doing well here in Paoli. It looks like I'll be starting a new long-term contract, but who knows when that will be? My fiance P works from home when it doesn't feel like the world's coming to an end, so it's just us, our cat Charlie, Max and Peedie (betta and snail, respectively). We're not going stir-crazy, but if I don't cut down on my snacking I'll be waddling out of here when this nightmare is finally over.

What really unnerves me is the quiet. I drove down to Mom's in Bryn Mawr last week and drove past Villanova. I'm a part-time student there, and it's the time of the year when the campus  should be hopping. March Madness, end-of-semester projects, prepping for finals, graduation looming. It's empty and silent and just heartbreaking.

Hang tough, weather people. Please stay well and we'll get through this. 

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Personally I'm doing fine, able to work from home and just hunkering down and trying to pass the time until this all passes (YouTube and video games really help lol). The region has been relatively spared of the virus (Atlantic, Salem, Cumberland and Cape May counties have less than 50 positive cases combined at this time).  Some of the big debates going on down here are seasonal homeowners coming to the shore from far away to "ride out" the virus, thus clogging up some of the few resources available in shore towns during the offseason, and the possibility of closing some of the beaches which has some residents rightfully upset - since they pay the taxes, they feel they should enjoy the beach.

It's estimated the AC casinos are losing over $700,000 a day compared to last March with everything being closed. I didn't move down here til 2012 (and didn't live here year-round til I got back from college in 2016) but I had heard that the 2008 recession hit the region particularly hard and lingered for a while. Luckily my career isn't casino-related but I can't say the same for some family members, so I'm hoping things will really clear up by Memorial Day in order for a great summer season.

We are one of those that have come to the shore to visit our shore house - we come every month of the year and we feel it is our right to come down as we pay the same taxes as full time residents. We went to the store yesterday and the liquor store and were told they appreciate us being down and supporting the local economy....hopefully those complaining are in the minority!

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Been working remote since 3/10. Only essential employees at site. Its gonna be a while longer.

 

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1 hour ago, Qtown Snow said:

another view....

 

Ugh - no sources for any of the points. Much better info below:

 

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Sorry about getting a little too political yesterday. My question about graphs and models is how can you project deaths when the denominator is unknown and  do the models account for for the restrictions put in place? On the political side, Gov. Murphy gets my vote for keeping the liquor stores open in NJ but closing golf courses was questionable. Stay safe!

.

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Sorry about getting a little too political yesterday. My question about graphs and models is how can you project deaths when the denominator is unknown and  do the models account for for the restrictions put in place? On the political side, Gov. Murphy gets my vote for keeping the liquor stores open in NJ but closing golf courses was questionable. Stay safe!

.

Al - There are too many unknowns for accurate modeling of the death toll. Its really the # of people that need prolonged hospital stays that's the problem. If the hospitals are overloaded then the death rate will be much higher.

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Ugh - no sources for any of the points. Much better info below:

 

In Dr. Fauci, we trust.

Our Christmas poinsettia (and Tom's favorite lady) is blooming just in time for Easter.

91175372_10216485748522866_6403635142702661632_n.jpg.72624a29bcc9759f4f98defdce179701.jpg

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Sorry about getting a little too political yesterday. My question about graphs and models is how can you project deaths when the denominator is unknown and  do the models account for for the restrictions put in place? On the political side, Gov. Murphy gets my vote for keeping the liquor stores open in NJ but closing golf courses was questionable. Stay safe!

.

Al,  to piggy back on what Charlie posted, it is similar (to me) to weather models.  We are not sampling every inch of the atmosphere before we run them, so yeah errors will occur and get worse with time.  It is an unfortunate unknown (the denominator) that we don't know how many people either have it or are asymptomatic.   

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16 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Al - There are too many unknowns for accurate modeling of the death toll. Its really the # of people that need prolonged hospital stays that's the problem. If the hospitals are overloaded then the death rate will be much higher.

I agree with the prolonged hospital stays overloading the system. Unfortunately the postmortem will find that certain people with certain profiles were doomed no matter what. The survivors will provide critical info on the people with vulnerabilities that have no hope until a vaccine comes out. I am hoping for the first time that the three h's (hazy ,hot and humid) come quickly to see if it stems the virus

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One thing that makes me anxious to the point of active denial is the vulnerability of loved ones with serious health issues (diabetes, immune-compromised, Parkinsonian).

I don't know if anyone else is dealing with this anxiety, but I wholeheartedly agree with Al that there will be, and is now, a massive toll on our mental health. 

I so am looking forward to being relieved that the first wave is over and enjoying warm, not hot, and dry air at the Delaware beaches. It would be tremendous to hear the waves again. I'm almost thinking of turning on the tv to beach waves in the finished basement and cranking the thermostat to 76.

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Drove back from NH house today.   Interfaced with no one.    Record time - 8 hrs 30 min for 530 miles.   BTW, 1-2" of snow tonight up there - more to the east in Maine where WSW's are up.    The Valero was $1.59/gal in Colebrook, NH     - don't know how they do that.   Closest I saw to that was $1.81.     Have to start figuring how to work at home full time starting tomorrow.    Things have certainly greened up around here in the last week.     Hoping for the best for everyone!

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5 hours ago, snowlurker said:

One thing that makes me anxious to the point of active denial is the vulnerability of loved ones with serious health issues (diabetes, immune-compromised, Parkinsonian).

I don't know if anyone else is dealing with this anxiety, but I wholeheartedly agree with Al that there will be, and is now, a massive toll on our mental health. 

I so am looking forward to being relieved that the first wave is over and enjoying warm, not hot, and dry air at the Delaware beaches. It would be tremendous to hear the waves again. I'm almost thinking of turning on the tv to beach waves in the finished basement and cranking the thermostat to 76.

My mother was a very anxious person and nature/nurture the apple didn't fall far from the tree.  I am personally more anxious about seeing the curve bend than contracting COVID itself. I think I need Gibbs to smack me on the side of the head.  Not that I am shaking hands and holding parties, but even before this became what it is working at Wegmans trained you to wash your hands often and not to touch your face.  I had to be talked into taking the leave.  Our daughter (who is thankfully ok in Australia) even told me to take the leave.  I do feel for people who have serious health issues and the anxiety they must have (whether they have made a career of it or not). As they tell you (and me), stress strains one's immune system.   I will say, at least in our county, the elderly are taking it more seriously.  Unfortunately we had one of those senior centers hot spot in Mount Laurel itself, 5 patients, 5 workers contracted it.  Four of the patients in their 80s have already died. 😞  Outside of that (the county stopped reporting ages today), 86 of the 121 confirmed cases in Burlington County were people younger than 60 and 108 out of 121 were younger than 70.  So a certain segment of this county's population is taking this disease seriously and the rest (paging Tony, Tony, Tony) may have bought too much into it's only dangerous for older/compromised adults. I don't have hospital numbers and we know the media loves to ratchet the drama up (this doesn't need ratcheting), but there have been patients in their 20s thru 40s that have had to go on ventilators, even if they recovered.   

Anyway this is like the Euro having I95 in the sweet spot on day 6 (not day 9, that doesn't work).  This will change tomorrow, but any good sign by me is appreciated. Yes confirmed cases is not exactly sampling every person.  There was a dip today from yesterday.  There was a dip the previous Saturday (weekend rules?) also.  One thing that is certain, no caveats with this:  The number of confirmed deaths came down nearly in half today.  It is a sad disease when "only" around 250 deaths is considered a better day.

2.JPG.cd21236e96dfa3ff767a97eac74db2ef.JPG

 

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

My mother was a very anxious person and nature/nurture the apple didn't fall far from the tree.  I am personally more anxious about seeing the curve bend than contracting COVID itself. I think I need Gibbs to smack me on the side of the head.  Not that I am shaking hands and holding parties, but even before this became what it is working at Wegmans trained you to wash your hands often and not to touch your face.  I had to be talked into taking the leave.  Our daughter (who is thankfully ok in Australia) even told me to take the leave.  I do feel for people who have serious health issues and the anxiety they must have (whether they have made a career of it or not). As they tell you (and me), stress strains one's immune system.   I will say, at least in our county, the elderly are taking it more seriously.  Unfortunately we had one of those senior centers hot spot in Mount Laurel itself, 5 patients, 5 workers contracted it.  Four of the patients in their 80s have already died. 😞  Outside of that (the county stopped reporting ages today), 86 of the 121 confirmed cases in Burlington County were people younger than 60 and 108 out of 121 were younger than 70.  So a certain segment of this county's population is taking this disease seriously and the rest (paging Tony, Tony, Tony) may have bought too much into it's only dangerous for older/compromised adults. I don't have hospital numbers and we know the media loves to ratchet the drama up (this doesn't need ratcheting), but there have been patients in their 20s thru 40s that have had to go on ventilators, even if they recovered.   

Anyway this is like the Euro having I95 in the sweet spot on day 6 (not day 9, that doesn't work).  This will change tomorrow, but any good sign by me is appreciated. Yes confirmed cases is not exactly sampling every person.  There was a dip today from yesterday.  There was a dip the previous Saturday (weekend rules?) also.  One thing that is certain, no caveats with this:  The number of confirmed deaths came down nearly in half today.  It is a sad disease when "only" around 250 deaths is considered a better day.

2.JPG.cd21236e96dfa3ff767a97eac74db2ef.JPG

 

I hadn't noticed the dip and appreciate your pointing it out. Fingers crossed that it does again today. 

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25 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I hadn't noticed the dip and appreciate your pointing it out. Fingers crossed that it does again today. 

I hoping that social distancing efforts (even if not perfect) will start being reflected in the case numbers in NY/NJ/PA as the week goes on.  Granted we are not able to test everyone and there are more people out there that have it that are not officially confirmed. 

The global numbers are even fraught with more uncertainty, but they are what they are too.

During the last week the global increase in daily cases has been +42K, +52K, +63K, +65K, +64K, +57K.  This is a 730 am snapshot by me.  Yes I have too much time on my hands.

Now that we are back to week days, I am assuming the numbers are not going to be as encouraging today, tomorrow, but will be happier if they are.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I hoping that social distancing efforts (even if not perfect) will start being reflected in the case numbers in NY/NJ/PA as the week goes on.  Granted we are not able to test everyone and there are more people out there that have it that are not officially confirmed. 

The global numbers are even fraught with more uncertainty, but they are what they are too.

During the last week the global increase in daily cases has been +42K, +52K, +63K, +65K, +64K, +57K.  This is a 730 am snapshot by me.  Yes I have too much time on my hands.

Now that we are back to week days, I am assuming the numbers are not going to be as encouraging today, tomorrow, but will be happier if they are.

 

 

This should be our role model. Remember, keep humor in your life and make sure you are washing your hands. 

Stay sane my friend!! 

90529414_2957313107637237_5249839345963106304_n.jpg

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58 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I hoping that social distancing efforts (even if not perfect) will start being reflected in the case numbers in NY/NJ/PA as the week goes on.  Granted we are not able to test everyone and there are more people out there that have it that are not officially confirmed. 

The global numbers are even fraught with more uncertainty, but they are what they are too.

During the last week the global increase in daily cases has been +42K, +52K, +63K, +65K, +64K, +57K.  This is a 730 am snapshot by me.  Yes I have too much time on my hands.

Now that we are back to week days, I am assuming the numbers are not going to be as encouraging today, tomorrow, but will be happier if they are.

 

 

I pay close attention to our County's numbers which are issued daily during the early evening hours. The PA site totals frequently don't match the County's numbers & are a day behind.

Bucks County's total cases have dropped for 2 consecutive days & Director of Health has continued to emphasize that they are seeing very little community spread.

Will be paying particular attention to the figures today as there were positive signs from NY / NJ over the weekend. 

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14 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

I pay close attention to our County's numbers which are issued daily during the early evening hours. The PA site totals frequently don't match the County's numbers & are a day behind.

Bucks County's total cases have dropped for 2 consecutive days & Director of Health has continued to emphasize that they are seeing very little community spread.

Will be paying particular attention to the figures today as there were positive signs from NY / NJ over the weekend. 

Speaking for the county where I reside I have to say closing schools at the first sign of an outbreak (over 2 weeks ago) was smart. And honestly, I don't see why or how they can even think of opening again (especially with nationwide order pushed back til the end of April). Basically, seen a handful of cases pop up over the north/west townships during the past 2 weeks while the harder hit areas closer to Philly have seen a gradual increase in cases BUT not an out of control skyrocket like NYC/LI/NNJ have seen. Focusing solely on MontCo. those numbers are encouraging. My fear is when the green light is given to ease things, we all want to return to "normal" but I feel like it can't happen for.....months.

mp.png

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

This should be our role model. Remember, keep humor in your life and make sure you are washing your hands. 

Stay sane my friend!! 

90529414_2957313107637237_5249839345963106304_n.jpg

We saw a great one hour video by a Cornell University Hospital (NYC) pulmonologist yesterday.  To summarize it:

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

wash/sanitize your hands and never touch your face

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