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Rainshadow5.8

Barney IX, Low Thicknesses, High Mins. All The Results Are In!

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Barney IX (Feb 20th or 21st) which is on its way to suppressing any snowy pcpn chance so far south, I might not even have to apologize to the GFS.  GFS found religion on the 12th (the magic day 8 or 9). Prior runs were warmer. This so far has been consistent since with some of the lowest predicted thicknesses of the season, but only so so mins,  still in the 20s, even mid 20s for PHL.  Sometimes the GFS is too top heavy with the cold within the trop,  sometimes it's just too plain cold. Time will tell.

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On 2/15/2020 at 6:57 PM, Rainshadow said:

Barney IX (Feb 20th or 21st) which is on its way to suppressing any snowy pcpn chance so far south, I might not even have to apologize to the GFS.  GFS found religion on the 12th (the magic day 8 or 9). Prior runs were warmer. This so far has been consistent since with some of the lowest predicted thicknesses of the season, but only so so mins,  still in the 20s, even mid 20s for PHL.  Sometimes the GFS is too top heavy with the cold within the trop,  sometimes it's just too plain cold. Time will tell.

Low PHL thickness was 518. Have to wait on Saturday morning min before evaluating.

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PHL lowest ended being 21F, not as cold as the Euro that had teens for at least some forecasts, but lower than some of the GFS's forecasts.

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Ok, here are the results.  The GFS didn't discover Barney until day 9 (12th).  Prior, it was generally too warm.  Also explains why axis of heaviest snow (and it was snowing in PHL) on the forgive me run was too north .  It eventually (thicknesses) became too cold and this also explains the drop off to no snow in VA/NC because the cold air was wrongly predicted to drop too south.  It slowly warmed (thicknesses) closer to verification time, I'd say lock in closeness 4 days out.  Lowest mins were always in the 20s.  The GFS does recognize urban areas (unlike the Euro which had PHL in the teens), but this is the second straight Barney in a row where it gave the urban effect too much credit. 

 

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