Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Sign in to follow this  
Rainshadow

Barney VIII (Feb 14th & 15th) Evaluation Is In. IF There Is One Barney Thread To Look At, It's This One.

Recommended Posts

This is the flip of most of the beyond day 8 patterns we have seen this winter.  This Barney excursion really didn't start having traction until about Feb 6th & 7th.  Yes there was a GFS run here, there beyond day 8, but even inside day 8 there are going to be GFS runs that are going to verify too high (by a margin) on predicted thicknesses. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last 4 GFS runs. Even Barney, like everything else this winter, is trending weaker and less exciting overall. Yes cold is exciting lol

gfs_T850_neus_fh90_trend.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Last 4 GFS runs. Even Barney, like everything else this winter, is trending weaker and less exciting overall. Yes cold is exciting lol

 

gfs was way to cold to begin with. just fun to get gigi fired up over it 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs was way to cold to begin with. just fun to get gigi fired up over it 

Actually 8 to 10 days out the GFS is going to be too warm, it had no Barney at all.  Yeah it then does it let’s tank everything.   But, This looks like the  most too warm model runs (as Measured by thicknesses) it is going to have this year with any of the alleged Barneys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Time for barney IX

Oh Barney needs to try much harder than this.

444.JPG.0a3387bb8adf9e2770265a81f34b486d.JPG

Right now Barney's affects look like:

Tubby_introduce003.jpg.1bac2a89846b0e3a2992635b424303a0.jpg

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

eps now down to 17 for philly during the period. So 10 degrees below norm there. Highs in the mid 30s, so another 10 below, not bad. Pretty amazing to see them colder than gfs

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps now down to 17 for philly during the period. So 10 degrees below norm there. Highs in the mid 30s, so another 10 below, not bad. Pretty amazing to see them colder than gfs

I am writing the model runs down, I was just waiting for this one to run its course before starting the next thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I have to make sure with 1 pm ob, but looks like lowest temp for PHL is 14F, lowest thickness 517.

Moral of the story, never and I mean never ever underestimate Barney 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/13/2020 at 2:29 PM, Rainshadow said:

After Barney VIII does this:

 

nope, no teletubby here. Never under estimate barney

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

nope, no teletubby here. Never under estimate barney

I would have to go back to Barney IV for an underestimation of Barney by the GFS. Last 12 forecast runs prior by the GFS had 19F or 20F for a low for PHL.  This was more of an advection night than I thought and the north winds from the city did not matter.  I know NYC sometimes does surprise low with North winds,  air mass bypasses Ontario,  so am surmizing this is a combo of both.  Unlike this Barney which was pretty erratic,  Barney IX is starting steady.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This one was a great evaluation, because it was not one sided at all (oh you GFS being too cold).  The period evaluation started with the GFS being oh too cold on a couple of those dynamite 18z runs and then the model lost the  cold air.  It didn't really find it again until February 6th, 8 days before.  One could see how it was getting there on the 4th only to have some bad (in this case warm) forecast throw it off track for about 24 hours.  The same needing 24 hours to purge occurred again on the 8th (too warm) and the 10th (too cold).  The 11th, three days before, were its best forecasts for PHL.  After that while the thicknesses were pretty good, it either had too much of an urban heat island affect or underestimated the low level cold air as winds were north bypassing Lake Ontario or went into radiational cooling mode and the minimum temperatures were consistently too warm for PHL.

Lasatly I can't go back to see this in all cases, but this one had a -NAM index which may be a good sign that the GFS is onto something and not just on something when it comes to cold snaps.

 

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...