Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nice CCB on euro next week 

euro hasn't given us a d9 threat, taken it away, then given it back yet all season.  This is something different.  I hope.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it's pulling teeth to get that boundary far enough SE to get us just cold enough.  makes sense, I mean it's going to snow in NC tomorrow, so 1 week later expecting 32 in Philly is clearly a stretch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gefs stepped back overall, dumping more energy out west again.  quite a spread naturally.  just once, can we get some consensus.  hopefully the eps perk up their snow forecast a bit today

192

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Euro d8 now.  @Rainshadow is there hope now that we're within day 9?

I figure there will be one.  As much as not every day 9 storm comes to fruition or our normal season snowfall would be 112”, to be shut out goes way against the laws of averages too. I thought the one would be during the first half of March, but I am willing to be flexible. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Euro d8 now.  @Rainshadow is there hope now that we're within day 9?

Lol my “smart” phone kept on loading old model runs, so I was wondering what was going on, I saw nothing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Lol my “smart” phone kept on loading old model runs, so I was wondering what was going on, I saw nothing.

Sounds like your smartphone isn’t to smart 

90746633-272F-4329-9383-D16443551B74.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is all relative because, well, you know.  But this was the best analog series I have seen for PHL this season (yes relative).  The centering day is next Thursday, so no creative maneuvering needed.  This included the foot of snow event on 2/12/06.  There were three additional events that fell into the C-2" range that Chris has been forecasting accurately for this winter.

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This is all relative because, well, you know.  But this was the best analog series I have seen for PHL this season (yes relative).  The centering day is next Thursday, so no creative maneuvering needed.  This included the foot of snow event on 2/12/06.  There were three additional events that fell into the C-2" range that Chris has been forecasting accurately for this winter.

 

1.JPG

 

 

Surprised they had that based off the h5 look. To me the h5 screams west

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Surprised they had that based off the h5 look. To me the h5 screams west

They had that too.  There were some warm solutions;  the #1 analog had a high of 70F for PHL on its centering date.  I had to do a triple take to make sure I was looking at the right month in the right place.   So 70F or a foot of snow, we got all bases covered. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I got a headache from looking at that silliness

Oops that was horrible.  Fixed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

No.  This is not a seesaw.  It's the GEFS from 12z to 18z today.  Oozing with consistency.

 

 

I think DuPage gave you the 12z GEFS from yesterday. The valid times shouldn't be jumping 24 hours. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I think DuPage gave you the 12z GEFS from yesterday. The valid times shouldn't be jumping 24 hours. 

Well I'll be darned.  I'm deleting it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

This is all relative because, well, you know.  But this was the best analog series I have seen for PHL this season (yes relative).  The centering day is next Thursday, so no creative maneuvering needed.  This included the foot of snow event on 2/12/06.  There were three additional events that fell into the C-2" range that Chris has been forecasting accurately for this winter.

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

I'll try to avoid the cynicism of a C-2" forecast. Am looking forward to a better showing by the GEPS.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here was the eps overnight for the susquayawner period

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KLOM-indiv_snow-2156800.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Here was the eps overnight for the susquayawner period

 

ecmwf-ensemble-KLOM-indiv_snow-2156800.png

Well...it's not a complete shutout yet

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The CPC D+8 (centered on March 1) analog dates include February 12, 2006.

The CPC D+8 and D+6 (centered on February 27) include March 14 & 15, 1956 (~four days before March 18-19, 1956).

 

20060212-20060213-4.10.jpg

19560318-19560319-1.87.jpg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...