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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

touche. Is the smarch meaning for snow orcan it be just for cold  

You need the snow for Smarch.  I will give you just the cold for Sapril.

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You need the snow for Smarch.  I will give you just the cold for Sapril.

Haha well we gotta see then if we Smarch or March then once we get to end of feb 

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1 hour ago, jrodd321 said:

Oh the pain if this happens...

If we are going to miss, would prefer North Carolina over Boston

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7 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

If we are going to miss, would prefer North Carolina over Boston

Those nine road trip North Carolina snow weenies are already dancing...

artist2014_kane_kaleo.jpgz.jpgx.jpg.1b3604cb7021d708d9fd1497291eb199.jpg

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Guess what?  The 12z gfs wants nothing to do with our long shot snow.  It doesn't phase with the lead wave like it was before, but now it phases with a norther stream disturbance to ensure it stays well to our NW.  Yawnter bliss.  

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sarcasm aside, it's still the best potential we've seen in over 1 month.  it's bouncing around, not settled in yet.  Ride the ensembles.  Maybe the GEFS will show 2 members with snow vs just 1?  

gfs_z500_vort_namer_38.png

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Canadian nodding to EURO?  Just a bit...look at this trend to not dump as much energy deep into the SW.  The EURO keeps that energy sliding down the lee side of the Rockies.  Also need some confluence up north to keep it from cutting.  I like this flatter look

gem_z500_vort_namer_fh150_trend.gif

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cmon Canada, give it to us!  it's a NICE look.  I'll probably regret weenie'ing out in 5 minutes

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Trends on Canadian are favorable.  There is a coastal.  Our mid levels are mucked, but another shift east and we're dancing.  This doesn't look like a squashed OTS type setup, it's riding the boundary so as always just a matter of how far that boundary advances.  On to Euro

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gefs getting excited for a storm somewhere around d9.  Bit snowier but eh still work to do

228

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That front running system is going to be a big player in this. Need a good cold push/confluence to force second piece of energy under

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Still think that 27/28 system is a long shot with the h5 look. Seems again like another one of those we need 1-2-3 to go right just to get to 4

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19 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Still think that 27/28 system is a long shot with the h5 look. Seems again like another one of those we need 1-2-3 to go right just to get to 4

As you have noted, the period after the D9 storm, the first week of March, is probably our best shot. Should be cold enough anyway.

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

As you have noted, the period after the D9 storm, the first week of March, is probably our best shot. Should be cold enough anyway.

Yup, I think that holds the most promise. Just need to get the storms as the cold will be there. 

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11 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Front running system on euro is pretty strong again lets see what happens

weaker than last nights run. also, second system is slower, more spacing between storms which allows ridging to pop between both

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Not one post on our last hope, the 00z CMC. 

D9 euro curse.  

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