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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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Here is the look on all 3 major Day 10 OP looks. All 3 actually look fairly similar...Tom/etc....HP is in a good spot, pattern is "okay", is there enough cold air available for a look like this if the low came out a bit flatter. Or even for a front end? I guess the main question, can the confluence and ULL in SE Canada dive far enough SE to keep that HP in a good spot.....It's the first threat-ish look I've seen in a while that has legs. 

CMC
goodenuff.png.06873da144c201a4119220e311c03656.png

GFS

gfs2.png.cd6fe388775e02899dd2dea47725ecbd.png

ECM

ecm2.png.c68ecf2c122fa7bb981207e5cf1eb42a.png

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Challenge has been digging energy far enough south.  That SE ridge might be muted, but it's still there.  Long range gfs keeps dumping core of cold and energy into the west, which ridges out ahead and coupled with the SE ridge gives us a SW flow. 

With the EPO trending neutral, there will be HP nearby, but with a raging +NAO, there is nothing to slow the flow down.  Rinse and repeat.  Cutters rule the roost.  Late blooming Miller Bs too that haven't helped us all season.

There is absolutely an improved chance past 2/26, but there's a reason the snow mean on ensembles is paltry.  Poorly timed cold and precip.  A yawnter signature.

D10-west coast dump

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png.35238771e2d82c689d9d07b225cb7257.png

D15-rinse repeat

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png.183beb8de266260582436b2fb8641ab1.png

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forget about FEB,, best shot is start of March. All things holding steady for a good Barney shot, just need the storms then. 

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Gefs have a modest uptick around 2/27-3/1

Powerful subtropical jet and possible phasing with the northern stream.  Big cutter before this should push the battle zone south.  High variability still of course

Bring it home @tombo82685

GEFSUS_500_hghtens_282.png

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12 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Gefs have a modest uptick around 2/27-3/1

Powerful subtropical jet and possible phasing with the northern stream.  Big cutter before this should push the battle zone south.  High variability still of course

Bring it home @tombo82685

 

The 27th system looks like a big cutter to me. Thats what brings the cold in and sets everything up for some potential for start of March

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35 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The 27th system looks like a big cutter to me. Thats what brings the cold in and sets everything up for some potential for start of March

Yeah after that massive cutter

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*Warning*

D9 Euro, with its history of repeated empty promises, strikes again.  This time it pops a ridge out west, instead of a deep closed low like nearly all other guidance, and zips the energy south of our latitude. 

A couple weenie gfs ensemble members have shown this, but I warn you, do not get sucked in.  Your spirit will be trampled upon by 12z today once it flips back to a cutter. 

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Some visuals to torment us until 12z.  Euro op on an island which if it showed rain while all other guidance had snow, we'd side with euro.  But every time this yawnter it's showed snow on it's own, we have to toss 

Screenshot_20200218-050834_Chrome.jpg

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_fh216_trend.gif

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh192_trend.gif

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OP vs ensemble comparison.  Euro by far farthest east with surface low and best with WC ridging.  Gfs op farthest west.  Follow the trends and hope for a miracle

ezgif-7-87a771fda6c6.gif

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Some visuals to torment us until 12z.  Euro op on an island which if it showed rain while all other guidance had snow, we'd side with euro.  But every time this yawnter it's showed snow on it's own, we have to toss 

Screenshot_20200218-050834_Chrome.jpg

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_fh216_trend.gif

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh192_trend.gif

It is uncanny on how it is always day 9.

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Looks like that euro run was 100th percentile compared to eps

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Still see no change, Liking the first week of March for something, cold air will be there. 

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like that euro run was 100th percentile compared to eps

One of the better Euro Op d9 Lucy's all winter

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7 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Still see no change, Liking the first week of SMarch for something, cold air will be there. 

Fixed.

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Just now, susqushawn said:

One of the better Euro Op d9 Lucy's all winter

yea they even have been few and far between. There were some eps members that had some snow but no where near to that extent

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Fixed.

touche. Is the smarch meaning for snow orcan it be just for cold  

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

touche. Is the smarch meaning for snow orcan it be just for cold  

Since we’re asking questions what’s the meaning of Smarch? Missed the genesis of that

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