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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? Looks like all rain down there 

it's snow down there, but surface temps would basically make it white rain. 

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Really need to get that northern stream to phase in. 1, it will help draw it north. 2, it will bring in some cold air. The airmass over us by day 9 is very stale 

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The day 6/7 system is for the southeast. That has a very low chance up here. Trough axis way to positive tilted 

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it's snow down there, but surface temps would basically make it white rain. 

Yeah, it looks close.  Granted these pivotal soundings are likely not the best, but these are forecast soundings from Alabama, Georgia & South Carolina in which during the next six hours two to three inches of snow are predicted to fall (10:1, not happening) in those counties.

 

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2.JPG.b9b3d23aa6146698c924fbf6776f38f4.JPG

 

 

 

 

 

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That day ten setup does not excite me one bit. Reminds me of the one I was bearish on back in late jan

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15 minutes ago, Seanvolz98 said:

Has Atlanta ever outsnowed Philly in season?

1972-73 they had 1.0".   Snowiest February for them is 4.4".  They had a snowiest March, 7.9". 

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7 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Back to the land with higher snow probabilities in February (here), we are in no man's land on the 6-10 day and 8-14 day analogs,  so I looked at both.  A day 8 centering comes closer this afternoon, really Friday afternoon.   It was not a shut out and the 1964 analog appeared on both outlooks with the same exact date.  :unsure: .    The 1967 analog (2/12 centering date), we are not going to be in the single numbers the day before or morning of.

 

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1964 is still on the 6-10 day analog list today.   1967 dropped off, never really had a chance. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Snowfall output on eps next 15 days for philly lol

9E606872-47A1-4417-9A09-EE98A0712B31.png

How many times can we hit rock bottom in one season?  

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

How many times can we hit rock bottom in one season?  

would you like to see Atlantas meteogram or wilmington NC? lol

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On 2/13/2020 at 7:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

 

Lol.  The difference between the Euro & GFS has been the Euro crashes at 95th Percentile Drive on Day 9.  The GFS lives at 95th Percentile Drive every day.  Yeah if NC or VA get the heaviest snow out of this as we get shut out I will do a personal apology thread to the GFS.  I will own it.

 

I'd like to thank the 00z model runs now that it is no longer day 9 for feeding my corroboration bias.

 

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ecmwf-deterministic-east-snow_96hr_inch-2459200.png

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15 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

1964 is still on the 6-10 day analog list today.   1967 dropped off, never really had a chance. 

I went through the rest of the list, no other measurables, a couple with traces.

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Never in my life have I  scene such putrid snow means in the heart of winter. The eps snow mean has like .5 for the rest of the month lol. This winter can’t end soon enough. What a disaster 

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18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Never in my life have a scene such putrid snow means in the heart of winter. The eps snow mean has like .5 for the rest of the month lol. This winter can’t end soon enough. What a disaster 

So are you telling me I should start getting gigi’s Weenie avatar ready?

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

So are you telling me I should start getting gigi’s Weenie avatar ready?

Ha. Perhaps a shot at something to start March? If not, get ready to upload.

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11 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

checking in, looking for snow threat, ugh, why did i even look, happy friday, cheers!

Dear Qtown,  with love from Florence on Valentine's Day from the 99.99999th Percentile GFS.

 

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Dear Qtown,  with love from Florence on Valentine's Day from the 99.99999th Percentile GFS.

 

😀

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4 hours ago, snowlurker said:

giphy.gif

This place is a ghost town😂 gotta think of how we’ve been spoiled the last 10-15 or so winters makes me feel a little better 

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1 hour ago, Seanvolz98 said:

This place is a ghost town😂 gotta think of how we’ve been spoiled the last 10-15 or so winters makes me feel a little better 

Well, here is a silver lining. This Winter has been so bad, we can’t even get fantasy storms on the models. It’s one big crap hole. Since there are no fantasy storms anywhere, at least we aren’t getting hopeful only to have our hearts ripped out as we get closer to go time. 

I can't remember a year with so few fantasy storms. It’s almost comical.

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