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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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4 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Brutality. I feel like this image has been replaying forever. I gues s if youre a snow and cold weenie in Northern Canada youre happy.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

I remember seeing this graphic over the years hoping we'd never see a +AO like it depicts...well...Image result for arctic oscillation

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3 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Perfection!!!

Yea all that snow in nc is from day 9-10 storm. That better come north or I’m gonna lose it 

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Really not a terrible setup. There is a big high over top the the s/w. It has the look of a bowling ball. So if you don't get a northern stream phase the bowling ball just exits pretty much where it enters at same latitude. Can track it pretty well on the eps, we get a late northern stream dive in on them but it's a bit to late. Then you can see the ridge out west rolls over to keep things progressive and punts it out. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-2286400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-2372800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-2416000.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-2459200.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea all that snow in nc is from day 9-10 storm. That better come north or I’m gonna lose it 

Day 9 KOD run by Euro. North Carolina has physicians in place for their nine snow weenies.   I will be spending the rest of my day writing a Hallmark card to the GFS.

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Day 9 KOD run by Euro. North Carolina has physicians in place for their nine snow weenies.   I will be spending the rest of my day writing a Hallmark card to the GFS.

you better, you gave it all the hell int he world for the 95th percentile then the euro and eps do this. I expect the apology to be written on here 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you better, you gave it all the hell int he world for the 95th percentile then the euro and eps do this. I expect the apology to be written on here 

Well as a person greater than me once said you don’t verify a forecast with a forecast.  So you might have to wait 10 days. Also as many greater persons than me have said, we have the Euro right where we want it at day 9. 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you better, you gave it all the hell int he world for the 95th percentile then the euro and eps do this. I expect the apology to be written on here 

GFS is close to euro at day 10, much closer than day 5.

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

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9 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

GFS is close to euro at day 10, much closer than day 5.

cor_day10_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

Seriously, modeling skill doesn’t begin until AC scores get greater than .600.  So all things being equal you have a better chance of predicting a ridge instead of a trof  in the SE and being right.

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This was the 0z eps for snowfall for philly for next 15 days 

1581552000-MT9HdgZcteg.png

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This was the 0z eps for snowfall for philly for next 15 days

Borrowing from snowlover - So there's a chance?

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37 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well as a person greater than me once said you don’t verify a forecast with a forecast.  So you might have to wait 10 days. Also as many greater persons than me have said, we have the Euro right where we want it at day 9. 

Not acceptable, you knew that before you bashed the gfs 95th percentile. We demand an apology, or else 

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46 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

you better, you gave it all the hell int he world for the 95th percentile then the euro and eps do this. I expect the apology to be written on here 

 

5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Not acceptable, you knew that before you bashed the gfs 95th percentile. We demand an apology, or else 

Lol.  The difference between the Euro & GFS has been the Euro crashes at 95th Percentile Drive on Day 9.  The GFS lives at 95th Percentile Drive every day.  Yeah if NC or VA get the heaviest snow out of this as we get shut out I will do a personal apology thread to the GFS.  I will own it.

1.JPG.797f2542f7e512833cba27f99c24f8ab.JPG

 

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13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

 

Lol.  The difference between the Euro & GFS has been the Euro crashes at 95th Percentile Drive on Day 9.  The GFS lives at 95th Percentile Drive every day.  Yeah if NC or VA get the heaviest snow out of this as we get shut out I will do a personal apology thread to the GFS.  I will own it.

1.JPG.797f2542f7e512833cba27f99c24f8ab.JPG

 

Still unacceptable apology 

 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Nope.

 

Are we standing you up at the gates of snow?

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Back to the land with higher snow probabilities in February (here), we are in no man's land on the 6-10 day and 8-14 day analogs,  so I looked at both.  A day 8 centering comes closer this afternoon, really Friday afternoon.   It was not a shut out and the 1964 analog appeared on both outlooks with the same exact date.  :unsure: .    The 1967 analog (2/12 centering date), we are not going to be in the single numbers the day before or morning of.

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

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Congrats Birmingham, Atlanta, and NC on the day 6/7 system the gfs had hitting orf on the euro

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Congrats Birmingham, Atlanta, and NC on the day 6/7 system the gfs had hitting orf on the euro

Really? Looks like all rain down there 

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4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Really? Looks like all rain down there 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-2329600.png

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