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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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I actually think the time period has a shot. Looks like the extreme positive AO might dip a bit temporarily. If we get a stalled out Anafront the question in that time frame will be if the Pacific can cooperate just a tiny bit. I like the look on the Icon @ 180. You can tell it is about to leave the same energy behind that the GFS does. It would be hell ironic if out of all this warmth the SE gets a perfectly timed thread the needle event. lol. 

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6 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I actually think the time period has a shot. Looks like the extreme positive AO might dip a bit temporarily. If we get a stalled out Anafront the question in that time frame will be if the Pacific can cooperate just a tiny bit. I like the look on the Icon @ 180. You can tell it is about to leave the same energy behind that the GFS does. It would be hell ironic if out of all this warmth the SE gets a perfectly timed thread the needle event. lol. 

O no, you're out. You lost your weenie privileges once you posted you wanted blow torch warmth over the cold. 

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27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

If that happens, that will be my jumping off a cliff point. I'm calm right now and have come to peace that this winter is what it is. But if Norfolk gets hit like that, O boy o boy o boy

I have a faint memory of a bad winter here with a big Va or NC storm.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

If that happens, that will be my jumping off a cliff point. I'm calm right now and have come to peace that this winter is what it is. But if Norfolk gets hit like that, O boy o boy o boy

Selling.  Yet just another GFS cyber snowstorm that you don't even have to think about gassing up the snow thrower for.  I really hope we don't have to endure another winter with this bucket of lower than whale excrement, cow dung, dinosaur doo, dumpster fire, insult to the lfm, rejected landfill material, love canal worthy model in its present state of cyber dishing snow. 

If it had the rain/snow line near Miami on this run, I'd give Norfolk a shot.

gfs_T850a_us_43.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_43.png

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37 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Selling.  Yet just another GFS cyber snowstorm that you don't even have to think about gassing up the snow thrower for.  I really hope we don't have to endure another winter with this bucket of lower than whale excrement, cow dung, dinosaur doo, dumpster fire, insult to the lfm, rejected landfill material, love canal worthy model in its present state of cyber dishing snow. 

If it had the rain/snow line near Miami on this run, I'd give Norfolk a shot.

 

 

 

197929E6-3ED5-4ADA-8EFC-437401ED3110.gif

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38 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Selling.  Yet just another GFS cyber snowstorm that you don't even have to think about gassing up the snow thrower for.  I really hope we don't have to endure another winter with this bucket of lower than whale excrement, cow dung, dinosaur doo, dumpster fire, insult to the lfm, rejected landfill material, love canal worthy model in its present state of cyber dishing snow. 

If it had the rain/snow line near Miami on this run, I'd give Norfolk a shot.

gfs_T850a_us_43.png

gfs-ens_T850a_us_43.png

Have you considered writing Hallmark greeting cards? 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

tumblr_2d0dc45c618b8fc3c7fcdf6858583518_a2b09200_250.gif.e783cf8988b9192565d0f711fe57bf99.gif

gfs-deterministic-ma-snow_48hr-2286400.png.b4879c0986210115e8df467a4b564b16.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2286400.png.bdd686499151fdb0c627d027a40c9d4b.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_120hr-2286400.png.4cb9d610b683b9f03f7aa88418b40745.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2286400.png.75caa30602a0c493463221636cf44a19.png

To be fair to the gfs, can’t believe I’m saying this but not sure you can do an op run vs ens mean. That’s like me cherry picking the one eps member that drops over 30” 

39A7200D-B5C9-4D42-BFB6-19ED5BA396AB.png

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I would say it would dis the gfs if it had it snowing a foot in Raleigh and none of the gefs members have it snowing south of m/d line. That then would show how putrid it’s been 

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

To be fair to the gfs, can’t believe I’m saying this but not sure you can do an op run vs ens mean. That’s like me cherry picking the one eps member that drops over 30” 

39A7200D-B5C9-4D42-BFB6-19ED5BA396AB.png

I thought I was being fair by including the EPS which had a couple of members with measurable there. If I didn't not only did all of the 42 GEPS & GEFS members not have the highest snowfall along the entire Mid Atlantic coast at Norfolk, but none of them had measurable at all in Norfolk.

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12 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I thought I was being fair by including the EPS which had a couple of members with measurable there. If I didn't not only did all of the 42 GEPS & GEFS members not have the highest snowfall along the entire Mid Atlantic coast at Norfolk, but none of them had measurable at all in Norfolk.

I honestly didn’t even look at ORF. I kind of also just wanted to post that eps member to hear Shawn pant heavily in the background 

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I would say it would dis the gfs if it had it snowing a foot in Raleigh and none of the gefs members have it snowing south of m/d line. That then would show how putrid it’s been 

I am just tired of seeing a 95th percentile solution forecast from it as business as usual.  This is Thursday for us, not ORF la la land time.  As the operational run it has higher resolution and better physics.  The previous version, poorer resolution GEFS should not be closer on a routine basis.  We know if you are wetter than the GEFS 28 out of 29 times this cold season, you will be wrong at PHL.  The issue is that the cold bias has not been totally removed from the OP and when it snows into an already colder than reality air mass, it feeds upon itself.

1.JPG.ccc51cba0be4bf6583269d05effa0dda.JPG 

Not to drag PHI into this, but it's snowy bias is so pervasive, a 4" forecast translates into this:

2.JPG.1907f2612e06b866ac9b6c1c5d6b8bee.JPG

 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I honestly didn’t even look at ORF. I kind of also just wanted to post that eps member to hear Shawn pant heavily in the background 

I think he just had to exit at the King Of Prussia rest stop.

My response was responding to ORF getting the heaviest snow from this, not our outcome. 

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

I am just tired of seeing a 95th percentile solution forecast from it as business as usual.  This is Thursday for us, not ORF la la land time.  As the operational run it has higher resolution and better physics.  The previous version, poorer resolution GEFS should not be closer on a routine basis.  We know if you are wetter than the GEFS 28 out of 29 times this cold season, you will be wrong at PHL.  The issue is that the cold bias has not been totally removed from the OP and when it snows into an already colder than reality air mass, it feeds upon itself.

 

Not to drag PHI into this, but it's snowy bias is so pervasive, a 4" forecast translates into this:

 

 

Well those 95th percentile runs by the gfs gives snow weenies like you, me, and Shawn hope in a rather dismal winter. 

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Well those 95th percentile runs by the gfs gives snow weenies like you, me, and Shawn hope in a rather dismal winter. 

Hope springs eternal for the nine North Carolina snow weenies.  Based on all of the EPS members, there is about a 4% chance of either OP GFS verifying.

gfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_100to1-2264800.png.6e72993032870dd320171a117ccb6bbe.png

gfs-deterministic-se-snow_96hr_inch-2243200.png.0d689a4b8c572b4dff282ed9dbecd6c8.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-snow_96hr_inch-2243200.png.a9ab01c145c4fe9da670103e5cd0d095.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-2243200.png.93cfda748766070c825b312a2c36bac7.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-2243200.png.56e1947573ea86c4f3c1576311f5e4a5.png

5.JPG.6106e3f5df5f5cf661d2e1db43d0aaf3.JPG

 

gfs-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-2243200.png

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Hope springs eternal for the nine North Carolina snow weenies.  Based on all of the EPS members, there is about a 4% chance of either OP GFS verifying.

If we can only get the gfs snow down to Miami ........

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This is really going to hit the deep South isn't it?  Or, if the trough moves out the closed low will cut to our west.  Perfect.

gfs_z500_vort_us_32.png

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24 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

This is really going to hit the deep South isn't it?  Or, if the trough moves out the closed low will cut to our west.  Perfect.

gfs_z500_vort_us_32.png

Welcome to Yawnter!

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I would think an anti-frontal wave is a possibility after the Tuesday cutter, maybe more than one. Going to have to rely on something like that to get PHL past an inch this winter. 

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What an historically bad winter. At least we can say we lived through the never ending spring winter. At least the wx gods can give me a fantasy storm to track idc if it busts

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