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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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Southern stream moved too fast, didn't give time for confluence ULL to move thru...oh well....still thread the needle, so keep your hopes down. 

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43 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

What HP?  Euro only I assume?  

it's not a strong HP but it slides off the coast and moves southeast

gfs-deterministic-east-mslp-1581163200-1581487200-1581573600-40.gif

 

you can see the response in the winds

this is prior to HP

1581465600-LkhLwfnZqqo.png

then as it slides off shore you have southerly flow

1581548400-C6kmo4W63hs.png

 

Euro is much stronger with the southerly flow thus way warmer because it has a stronger HP

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28 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Few hits on gefs, plenty more misses.  Same ol

12Z-20200208_GEFSMA_prec_ptypens-114-150-100-100.gif

Beside everything that could go wrong, go wrong.  This is easy in the year of no snow for you, but the OP model runs have been the weenie runs while the ensembles (what snow?) have been more accurate.  I don't understand why and one would think just from the law of probabilities that this should flip at least once.  This a window (2/13-2/17) and every window has to be evaluated on its own merit.   But I am going to wait until I can see the window within 84 hours.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:Yea if only lol. Different way of doing it. 0z ggem was opposite as it got northern stream out ahead of southern stream. This is just tpv press 

With conventional ways to get snow around here this year out the window, it might make sense that if we are going to score with a 2+ inch storm it will come in a non-conventional way. Going an entire season without a 2”+ storm is pretty hard to do. Maybe harder than a summer without a 90.

I think we’ll score at some point before the equinox.

 

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euro still not playing ball. It's not as jacked up as last night, with a tiny bit more confluent flow but it's still in a different planet than gfs and ggem

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50 minutes ago, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

With conventional ways to get snow around here this year out the window, it might make sense that if we are going to score with a 2+ inch storm it will come in a non-conventional way. Going an entire season without a 2”+ storm is pretty hard to do. Maybe harder than a summer without a 90.

I think we’ll score at some point before the equinox.

 

It goes that way more often than I'd like to admit.  It develops or trends within 5 days or in Smarch when one can get rain to change before snow before it ends.

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro still not playing ball. It's not as jacked up as last night, with a tiny bit more confluent flow but it's still in a different planet than gfs and ggem

This version of the GFS has become the JMA.  I am tired of it giving out Halloween candy bags that have toothbrushes and dental floss in them.  This from a thunderstorm weenie.

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you don't have a shot in hell with a h5 setup like this in the 5-10 day period on the euro. This h5 look is what keeps snow weenies up at night with nightmares. 

1582027200-DlO7VrC5pAs.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

you don't have a shot in hell with a h5 setup like this in the 5-10 day period on the euro. This h5 look is what keeps snow weenies up at night with nightmares.

Bad and unshakable, 60s+70s more likely than snow in the coastal plain.

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Leave it to the euro to score a win this time when it’s all by itself....sigh 

Dr. No will punish you when other models hold out some hope.

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1 hour ago, Heisenberg said:

Solid look on 18z NAM at 84 hrs. Ill latch on whatever i can take. Dont hate

You were doing soo well too.....

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29 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

I hate this winter

look on the bright side, it basically can't get any worse for next year. Going to be hard to get lower than .3 lol

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2 hours ago, Heisenberg said:

I hate this winter

And with that...

Yet another SnowWeenie has fallen‼️

A1C2F36B-98C6-4DAD-9DE1-66F54F193FAA.gif

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That does it.  We know the weather pattern sucks, but how about a couple of nice videos to watch...Just maybe we can get that surprise storm.  But man, its like pulling teeth of late...

 

Another nice one shot it Berlin

 

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I know for sure what is going to happen....next 2 3 weeks with the warm spells people will forget it is winter. Then we get like some 6 to 10 inch event forecasted 3 days out in mid march where no one believes and it ends up trending south

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On 2/8/2020 at 5:41 PM, Heisenberg said:

I hate this winter

All aboard for Norfolk on the gfs line.

gfsnorfolk.gif

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6 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

All aboard for Norfolk on the gfs line.

gfsnorfolk.gif

If Norfolk gets 6"+ we should shut the site down

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34 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

If Norfolk gets 6"+ we should shut the site down

If that happens, that will be my jumping off a cliff point. I'm calm right now and have come to peace that this winter is what it is. But if Norfolk gets hit like that, O boy o boy o boy

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