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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eps have virtually nothing for that period with a strong cutter as you showed above. The next timeframe where there is of some interest in is presidents day

the op euro did have an accumulating snowfall on that sunday night prior to president's day

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Just now, susqushawn said:

If only

icon_z500_vort_atl_39.png

Yea if only lol. Different way of doing it. 0z ggem was opposite as it got northern stream out ahead of southern stream. This is just tpv press 

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2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

By 18z it will probably change to "what was that cold German smoking?"

It’s got a nice HP to work with that’s for sure. I dunno I just don’t trust 3rd world models 

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Till the euro gets semi on board I think we are all like yea, ok, next. It’s on the opposite end of the spectrum with all the other models maybe outside ukie 

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15 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Please German weather weenie gods, be right 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh120-141.gif

 

 

Umwerfend!

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Till the euro gets semi on board I think we are all like yea, ok, next. It’s on the opposite end of the spectrum with all the other models maybe outside ukie 

Massive difference over SE Canada.  C'mon euro just screw up in the right direction.

ezgif-1-4be4530354b9.gif

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2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Massive difference over SE Canada.  C'mon euro just screw up in the right direction.

ezgif-1-4be4530354b9.gif

Usually on eps members you get some that show a gfs or ggem two scenario. Not 0z it was all rainers 

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Gfs phases more so this would cut like euro except confluence not bad, might keep it at bay, but higher rain risk than icon.  Just dont like to see any tick towards euro even tho we sense its coming

gfs_DTpres_us_fh114_trend.gif

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Nothing like euro over top, timing is close enough not to give up.  Clearly evident confluent zone close to Position A, HP just a bit late to the party.  This feature has been very hard to hold this season, I have little faith given much hinges on its placement and timing.  

gfs_uv200_atl_21.png

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You really need confluent flow to press a bit more south than this run even has it. I bet if that 12z gfs verifies it would be mainly a Rainer as it would get warmer closer in. To much southerly flow aloft. Reminds me of the fake storm last Saturday or whenever it was where hp moved southeast and just croaked the BL with southerly winds 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You really need confluent flow to press a bit more south than this run even has it. I bet if that 12z gfs verifies it would be mainly a Rainer as it would get warmer closer in. To much southerly flow aloft. Reminds me of the fake storm last Saturday or whenever it was where hp moved southeast and just croaked the BL with southerly winds 

Best setup in awhile, as modeled.  Confluence is in decent position and drifts east, not se like the other storm, so HP should stay N vs position offshore to our E.  To your point, the primary goes west of Apps and cooks mid layers at least.  It's a long shot but relative to this winter overall this one has more legs

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That southern vort wants so badly to cut, neutral tilt over TX.  If it hits that wall of confluence it will get smooshed east

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11 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Best setup in awhile, as modeled.  Confluence is in decent position and drifts east, not se like the other storm, so HP should stay N vs position offshore to our E.  To your point, the primary goes west of Apps and cooks mid layers at least.  It's a long shot but relative to this winter overall this one has more legs

What I’m saying is regardless of the primary going into sw pa I think it would be DOA. Look at where the HP slides to prior to storm. That just promotes a ton of southerly flow at the surface and a loft. That’s why I want to see a stronger confluent press to really knock that se ridge down. 

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Real deal arctic front.  If it comes early it might squash the strom.  Too late and we rain.  Love it.

gem_T2m_contour_us_fh102-120.gif

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

What I’m saying is regardless of the primary going into sw pa I think it would be DOA. Look at where the HP slides to prior to storm. That just promotes a ton of southerly flow at the surface and a loft. That’s why I want to see a stronger confluent press to really knock that se ridge down. 

What HP?  Euro only I assume?  

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Cmc keeps storm flat and weak. Predominantly a northerly flow at surface and 850.  Good solution.  There is a weak HP that slides off the coast but it dissipates and does little damage.  Euro kills us.  Hopefully it trends favorably 

gem_T850_neus_fh120-132.gif

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