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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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Canadian squashes it but its a legit threat. Of course as we always are this winter were battling components. The GFS ejects the wave too fast and it gets squashed by northern stream. CMC is better with that, but then it brings on a kicker out west which ruins the flow. I mean with our luck this winter ill put our odds at like 5%, but it has to snow once this year doesnt it?

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Ukie looks perfect. Confluence is out ahead and the waves may phase. Would at least get a major thump here....icon also phases that incoming wave.

500hv.conus.png

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Ukie looks perfect. Confluence is out ahead and the waves may phase. Would at least get a major thump here....icon also phases that incoming wave.

 

That looks to warm to me, to much sw flow out ahead of it. Need to flatten the flow a bit more 

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Lol and of course ukie has a nice southern stream but the northern wave in SE canada isnt as robust so cold air isnt there. Can we get a break

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

That looks to warm to me, to much sw flow out ahead of it. Need to flatten the flow a bit more 

I was hoping the ULL in SE canada would dive farther SE

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1 minute ago, Heisenberg said:

Lol and of course ukie has a nice southern stream but the northern wave in SE canada isnt as robust so cold air isnt there. Can we get a break

it's not like you're describing an easy setup, this is close to thread the needle type event. 

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euro trending better.  kicker might help keep it flat, rain snow line is up by Mitch on this run, N&W starts as snow briefly before changeover.  

HOPE

28b98d26-3e1a-4350-bdb2-5600bb4ce571.gif

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HP slides off coast before storm which mucks up the boundary, but confluence is improved over SE Canada today, so next HP over central Canada extending into E Candaa is slightly stronger and father east but too little too late per EURO.  Damage done

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15 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

HP slides off coast before storm which mucks up the boundary, but confluence is improved over SE Canada today, so next HP over central Canada extending into E Candaa is slightly stronger and father east but too little too late per EURO.  Damage done

Yea it’s been trending flatter, need more confluent flow in Canada as you mentioned to knock se ridge down but you may also shear the low out as well too 

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea it’s been trending flatter, need more confluent flow in Canada as you mentioned to knock se ridge down but you may also shear the low out as well too 

it's never easy, is it

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22 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

it's never easy, is it

Not this winter

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On 2/6/2020 at 11:11 AM, snowlurker said:

FWIW, one KU date showed up on the CPC analog date list centered on February 16: February 8, 1994.This fall within the NOAA NESIS date range of February 8-12, 2004. Ray has two storms for that date range:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/08-Feb-94.html

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1994/11-Feb-94.html

Aaaaannnd, it's gone

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VD potential has a little more support this eps run, though that’s not saying much. Mean is like .5-1”

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5 hours ago, susqushawn said:

12Z ICON FOR THE WEENIES!  :smileys-snowman-838525:

Yes it sure is!

(cue some poster's reply that it's temps or snow algorithm sucks)

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Atlanta May have more snow than philly by end of tomorrow 

A31C5160-BD9A-4836-B62A-618166BDABA3.png

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28 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Any love on 18z euro?

Doesn’t go out that far but eps look really jacked up at 18z 

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GEM and 06 gfs have snow around V-day with strong confluence in Quebec, Euro/EPS not buying.

gem_z500a_namer_24.png

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Comparison of each Op to their respective ensemble:

ezgif-3-a189835c020f.gif.1329f21fd67a2edba3bc100b233ab992.gif

Trend past 4 model cycles for each ensemble:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_atl_fh144_trend.gif.11bd5fd30b85021ee01e20e3d4f4f2c1.gifgfs-ens_z500a_atl_fh144_trend.gif.bf64476c4c34aceddd59170b3b0eb160.gifgem-ens_z500a_atl_fh144_trend.gif.e4f1f1bf06100e5d684e5ea6784a245a.gif

Gefs and eps have met in the middle with a similar look while geps have the most confluence of all.  War on the eps is a snow killer.  Gefs backing off flat confluent look, *gulp*

If history this winter is a guide, I'd expect relaxed confluence and poor HP position/too much southerly flow, but all options on the table for now.

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2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Comparison of each Op to their respective ensemble:

 

Trend past 4 model cycles for each ensemble:

 

Gefs and eps have met in the middle with a similar look while geps have the most confluence of all.  War on the eps is a snow killer.  Gefs backing off flat confluent look, *gulp*

If history this winter is a guide, I'd expect relaxed confluence and poor HP position/too much southerly flow, but all options on the table for now.

eps have virtually nothing for that period with a strong cutter as you showed above. The next timeframe where there is of some interest in is presidents day

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