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tombo82685

Winter Storm Threats II (5 days and beyond)

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Maybe a new thread will change our luck, doubtful. 

Time to start a 2020 Winter Flood Watch thread. 

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16 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Maybe a new thread will change our luck, doubtful. 

It's just looks all too familiar.  The 10-15 day shows glimpses of winter and then the can just keeps getting kicked backwards. All of our cold shots are frontal passages on the heels of lps sliding to out north and east and they have no staying power. 

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6 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

It's just looks all too familiar.  The 10-15 day shows glimpses of winter and then the can just keeps getting kicked backwards. All of our cold shots are frontal passages on the heels of lps sliding to out north and east and they have no staying power. 

Yea thats because in that period modelling goes to a -epo that never materializes. So you lose the cold and gain pacific air 

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1200+ posts in the last thread... only .7” to show for it IMBY.... let’s hope this one goes better. 
 

at this point, maybe we can eek out snow showers Sunday ?? 

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One thing to watch is the northern stream s/w that swings through saturday night. If temps cooperate could lead to a period of snow showers or lgt snow. Thats assuming that doesn't change between now and then. Gfs and euro both have that swinging through the area

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The 60’s are probably in trouble next week if we get the -epo ridge to roll over. It’s really pressing.now against the southeast ridge 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

One thing to watch is the northern stream s/w that swings through saturday night. If temps cooperate could lead to a period of snow showers or lgt snow. Thats assuming that doesn't change between now and then. Gfs and euro both have that swinging through the area

That's what WXSIM is showing...

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6 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

That's what WXSIM is showing...

well of course, because it's ran off the gfs and it was showing that for one run 

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Looks like I was wrong yesterday when I guessed that we wanted a strong southern stream. Here is the GEM at 84. Looks like a great storm set-up, but the southern-stream low is already way offshore, poisoning the well for the "great set-up". Just a complicated fast flow forecast for models + weenies to resolve.

 

gem_z500_vort_us_15.png

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Looks like I was wrong yesterday when I guessed that we wanted a strong southern stream. Here is the GEM at 84. Looks like a great storm set-up, but the southern-stream low is already way offshore, poisoning the well for the "great set-up". Just a complicated fast flow forecast for models + weenies to resolve.

 

 

+ no cold air. Even with a good southern stream low you probably would still rain IMO. You have no cold air, there is no dry air to evapo cool. Heck philly's dew pt isn't even below freezing for Saturday

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

+ no cold air. Even with a good southern stream low you probably would still rain IMO. You have no cold air, there is no dry air to evapo cool. Heck philly's dew pt isn't even below freezing for Saturday

Yes, needing more qpf+colder temps is never a good starting point. One or the other is hard enough.

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

well of course, because it's ran off the gfs and it was showing that for one run 

and of course now it shows absolutely nada - no precip at all until Wed /Thursday but no better than 50 for our warm up this week in Chesco

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54 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Looks like I was wrong yesterday when I guessed that we wanted a strong southern stream. Here is the GEM at 84. Looks like a great storm set-up, but the southern-stream low is already way offshore, poisoning the well for the "great set-up". Just a complicated fast flow forecast for models + weenies to resolve.

 

gem_z500_vort_us_15.png

Nothing to slow the low down so it will become a fish storm.

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Late next week may have a shot for an anti-frontal wave. Gotta get a warm-up and cutters out of the way through mid-week first. 

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19 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Yes, needing more qpf+colder temps is never a good starting point. One or the other is hard enough.

 Evap cooling >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  dynamic cooling.  One doesn't even have to think about it. 

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19 hours ago, cbelke said:

Nothing to slow the low down so it will become a fish storm.

Maybe the writing was on the wall.  At least for Tom's sake I am on my way to being wrong about him getting the worst of both worlds.  Near benchmark track and rain.  We had a coupld of southern stream lows (today) already that all we could do is sniff cirrus.  Precip shield itself this weekend is along the NJ coast on some modeling, normally the truck does back up, but if it's 37F and rain or white rain, who cares?

 

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A NWS facebook  thread about the models.  I'll repost this in here.  So we have threaded water (could be worse) with new GFS by this comparison.  All the models improved vs last January (I guess resolving a SSW takes away from skill) and the GFS was pretty much in line with the improvement.  However (new upgrade already factoring in?), it is now in 4th place behind the GGEM.

Temperature wise, while EMC's adjustment reduced the cold bias we would have seen if the new GFS was implemented last winter, the cold bias is still worse than the previous version of the GFS from Jan 2019.  

1.JPG.c5bbe0f8f5bd041f832e9e41c5740093.JPG

3.JPG.c798b469c39505c970471050fb78c556.JPG

 

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I was waiting for this to be a done deal before Debbie Downer it.  @tombo82685 was posting how hostile the antecedent air mass was to snow chances.  
 

I went back and looked at the preceding day’s high temperature leading into a 6” or more event for PHL between mid jan and mid feb. I stopped there because increasing sun angles make snow doable after a warmer day as we roll toward spring. One could reach 60F with a 540 thickness in Smarch. 

I removed days with CFPs as this is not the case this weekend; that can be an efficient snow maker. 
 

The highest max temp of the remaining events was 44F with the Feb 1995 event. 

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Normally this would produce at least some front end stuff, but with the PV tucked up and spinning tight, there’s not even any confluence over eastern Canada. 

CF979B6A-CFDB-4E59-8A7E-E55673D04F2A.png

897123BE-40D9-4748-8CEB-A75D71FDA66B.png

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13 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

The highest max temp of the remaining events was 44F with the Feb 1995 event. 

The air mass changed significantly that day, am DP's in mid 30's dropped to the low single digits late in the evening. The following day snow did not get started until well into the evening, lows that morning were in the teens, low teens just north of the city. DP's in the single digits all day so when the snow started it set those temps up nicely in the low-mid 20's. Excellent storm here in Lower Bucks & adjacent Mercer County, over a foot, hvy snow tapered off to drizzle while the city went over the hvy rain for a couple of hours.

I believe that storm kinda came up on short notice, don't remember much talk of anything then next thing you know warnings went up FRI afternoon.

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2 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

The air mass changed significantly that day, am DP's in mid 30's dropped to the low single digits late in the evening. The following day snow did not get started until well into the evening, lows that morning were in the teens, low teens just north of the city. DP's in the single digits all day so when the snow started it set those temps up nicely in the low-mid 20's. Excellent storm here in Lower Bucks & adjacent Mercer County, over a foot, hvy snow tapered off to drizzle while the city went over the hvy rain for a couple of hours.

I believe that storm kinda came up on short notice, don't remember much talk of anything then next thing you know warnings went up FRI afternoon.

Thanks Carl, I didn't double check that one.  Nice catch.   There is another 19th hole story (doesn't involve TomL) with that event if either of us remembers.

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16 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

The Euro had a big flip but no snow threats? Sorry I've been out of pocket all day

It’s odd....the h5 improves but the 2m temps and snow mean still suck. I think I’m going to go back into hibernation 

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Decent ice storm on the gfs next week for nw burbs on nw 

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