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tombo82685

Winter 2019/20 Melt/implode thread

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12 hours ago, susqushawn said:

It's official.  That was the most atrocious mid February 0z model run in the history of mid February 0z model runs.  I can find zero glimmers of hope in a sea of meh.  The Yawnter stranglehold is real and relentless.  The phantom ridge bridging nonsense, PNA spike, AK vortek retreat, east coast troughing, Barney attacks, -NAO (lol) and even deep South snow has completely vanished.  All of this emphasizes how important it is to enjoy the bone chilling 2-day stretch of below normal temps.  Light the fire, even if you dont have a fireplace.  Sleep with the windows open.  Imbibe heavily as if an epic nor'easter was building precip to our south and pivoting due north up the coast as we await the first flakes while a massive HP funnels cold arctic air down the  coastal plain.  Turn on the snowblower, just to imagine actually needing it (and it's good for the engine anyway with all that stale gasoline).  The ship is sinking.  The band is playing.  Captain Smith (Tombo) is the last weenie standing.  I'm done (well, we know that's not true).  Peace.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What are your thoughts on this?

1581681600-nGuWzFpfUpU.png

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16 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Last year it was nov storm. Then we had some smaller events in Jan, nothing over 4” in philly for one single storm. The storm that gave DC a foot it Wilmington area and south jersey through southern de decent. Feb favored nw of the city as it was a -pna/se ridge combo again. We had a big time cold shot last day of Jan into start of feb. that’s where I got to -6 with 5” on the ground. That feb finished below norm. Then March last year went to town nw of the city specifically. Had 14-18” of snow in 3 days 

For the last 5 years winter has been largely absent in January and February. Crazy 

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Not to dump salt in open wounds, but a couple shots from the weekend after house settlement:

Path in front of house was on top of a foot plus of concrete snow and ice pack.   There was a heavy rain followed freezeup.    Average snow depth around 2'.

DSC00577.JPG

DSC00578.JPG

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SWEET...

Let’s see some inside shots so we can figure out where to set up our cots for sleepover...

CONGRATS‼️‼️

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1 hour ago, iceman56 said:

Not to dump salt in open wounds, but a couple shots from the weekend after house settlement:

Path in front of house was on top of a foot plus of concrete snow and ice pack.   There was a heavy rain followed freezeup.    Average snow depth around 2'.

DSC00577.JPG

DSC00578.JPG

Congrats. Looks like snow weenie heaven. Enjoy.  

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2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

SMARCHED!

gfs_uv250_eus_62 (1).png

"95th Percentile GFS"

95th Percentile GFS never lets you down
When all the other models turn you away, it’s still around
It's my private pleasure, midnight fantasy
Some run to share my wildest dreams with me
95th Percentile GFS, you're mine anytime
95th Percentile GFS, oh yeah

When ordinary models don't forecast what you feel
And real life solutions lose their thrill
95th percentile's unreal
95th Percentile GFS, 95th Percentile GFS
You're mine anytime

95th Percentile GFS never disagrees
It always care
It is always there when
You need satisfaction guaranteed

95th Percentile GFS, 95th Percentile GFS
You're mine all the time
My 95th Percentile GFS
You're mine anytime

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

"95th Percentile GFS"

 

95th Percentile GFS never lets you down
When all the other models turn you away, it’s still around
It's my private pleasure, midnight fantasy
Some run to share my wildest dreams with me
95th Percentile GFS, you're mine anytime
95th Percentile GFS, oh yeah

When ordinary models don't forecast what you feel
And real life solutions lose their thrill
95th percentile's unreal
95th Percentile GFS, 95th Percentile GFS
You're mine anytime

95th Percentile GFS never disagrees
It always care
It is always there when
You need satisfaction guaranteed

 

95th Percentile GFS, 95th Percentile GFS
You're mine all the time
My 95th Percentile GFS
You're mine anytime

 

haha...I demand Wegman's increase your hours immediately.  😜

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18z gfs rides the d8 storm directly up the spine of the Appalachians.  It's as if the mountains don't exist.  Naturally, given it shows rain, that's exactly what will occur.  We wouldn't want PHL to surpass ORF in snowfall.

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This winter can not end soon enough! What a horrific nightmare of a winter. I never want to hear about warm pools, Aleutian lows, modki, or weak ninos ever again. It’s pretty clear it’s all about the mjo and Pv. With the how warm the waters are I think the mjo will continue to be in the crap phases. 
 

rant over! 

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I'm rooting for a completely snowless February at this point just to be able to say I lived through it.

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4 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Perfection

gfs_ref_frzn_neus_28.png

It outdoes itself a few days laters

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_52.png.bff1ef16161a28e22c6cb17984f442f2.png

Even when the lows finally track to our east there still isn't enough cold air or CAA support...

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On 2/3/2020 at 10:47 AM, iceman56 said:

Area smaller than a pixel doesn't show up.

The NWS (and everyone else with a scintilla of common sense) knows that the "Chesco Pa Wx Man's" snow totals are vastly overinflated by at least one third.

Cognizant of this fact; the map makers prudently decline to create some anomalously (and illusory!) high snow max area where it fails to exist...

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17 hours ago, greg ralls said:

I'm rooting for a completely snowless February at this point just to be able to say I lived through it.

We are on track for this ambitious goal.  When does Feb lose the crown of snowiest month?  November is fast on its heels

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