Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Sign in to follow this  
Rainshadow5.8

2020 General Thunderstorm Discussion, Very Visionary.

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

looks like a repeat of yesterday storms start to move in as sun goes down and they lose their intensity. B est chance nw montco, chester, berks

I will look forward to my 0.01”.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good t-storm around Towson, MD. Doubt it makes it up this far before falling apart. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slgt risk up for Saturday city north. Depends on morning convection but I like the looks of it if we clear out and gain instability. Solid mid level dry punch would aid in damaging wind gusts and hail potential. Has the line segment possibly bowing out in spots look 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Slgt risk up for Saturday city north. Depends on morning convection but I like the looks of it if we clear out and gain instability. Solid mid level dry punch would aid in damaging wind gusts and hail potential. Has the line segment possibly bowing out in spots look 

The sounding aloft still looks good, but I'm starting to fear best dynamics are well to our north and we miss out due to lack of trigger. Have to watch tomorrow to see if we get a lee side trough formation. that would be the trigger. As always models handle convection poorly so we shall see

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Man, I hope this stays together.  I'm tired of hearing "crunch " when I walk on what's left of my lawn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SPC actually nudged the southern edge of the Slight risk area below the M/D last night. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Less forcing at play today, especially down this way. and the mid level flow is pretty mehh. But thermos are pretty solid. That’s some fat cape profiles there. Could see a decent amount of lightning, even in the littlest cells. 
 

have to watch for anvil blow off as well. That 75knots @250mb is gonna shear some tops off. Would expect some pop up storms, maybe pulse up kinda strong, and then get their anvils ripped off as Updrafts mature

F982DF08-0F1F-45B9-B1A0-7021D1AE60D5.png

CE5700A6-4A13-4349-AB4E-01FF978AC774.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there is a marginal risk up today. Good post Bri

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless of temps, atleast as of now it looks like rain chances are starting to increase a good bit this week and possibly into the weekend. BTW, tues has a potential flash flood look to it if convection forms. Euro and eps most bullish on this.  High PWATS and steering currents aloft look very weak for slow moving storms.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Marginal risk of svr storms tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if that gets bumped to slight risk. Plenty of instability around and also a bit of an EML to work with too. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Marginal risk of svr storms tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if that gets bumped to slight risk. Plenty of instability around and also a bit of an EML to work with too. 

Some pretty fat cape values and lower freezing levels. Any nature updraft could produce some solid hail reports. As usual, the caveat is the shear profiles. But yea, multi pulse cells can still go severe. 

C1816871-2913-4010-AFDD-7F5DE52CF1BE.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Welp, no slight risk . But think today, any mature storm would probably go warned. Keep your guard up: 

 

 

1E263438-02FA-42C8-A261-F42A07134694.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Welp, no slight risk . But think today, any mature storm would probably go warned. Keep your guard up: 

 

 

 

Still have noon update, kind of surprised, soundings don't look that bad at all. Maybe it's cause there is no real s/w

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Welp, no slight risk . But think today, any mature storm would probably go warned. Keep your guard up: 

 

 

1E263438-02FA-42C8-A261-F42A07134694.png

Also surprised - we're likely to see cape over 5k today. If any shear makes it in, we're going to blow up. I would imagine that there would be quite a bit of large hail potential and the storms will hardly be moving given the sounding posted above. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Still have noon update, kind of surprised, soundings don't look that bad at all. Maybe it's cause there is no real s/w

In a totally unscientific way, these days where the potential is there, but spc sloth.gif's us, something usually winds up popping. It would be nice to get some pay out for the horrendous dps today, sheesh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You don't see this kind of instability around here too often. CAPE already over 4000 J/kg and forecasted over 5000 this afternoon.

Where it does rain it'll be blinding.

13522622_ScreenShot2020-07-06at10_47_30AM.jpg.73d4d5d95e5c44e6aaaf46c62652957b.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, jmister said:

You don't see this kind of instability around here too often. CAPE already over 4000 J/kg and forecasted over 5000 this afternoon.

Where it does rain it'll be blinding.

13522622_ScreenShot2020-07-06at10_47_30AM.jpg.73d4d5d95e5c44e6aaaf46c62652957b.jpg

 

Two questions if I may.

1) These storms, when they fire up, won't associated with and front moving through. Correct?  It won't take much to ignite the fire given the CAPE values, for sure. I'm just wondering what the trigger mechanism is for this type of scenario.

 

2) Given potential severe threat, would a severe t-strm watch be prudent or stick with hazardous weather outlook until the storms begin?

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

Two questions if I may.

1) These storms, when they fire up, won't associated with and front moving through. Correct?  It won't take much to ignite the fire given the CAPE values, for sure. I'm just wondering what the trigger mechanism is for this type of scenario.

I pretty much always refer to the SPC Convective Outlook discussions for the details of storm ignition:


...Northeast...
   Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should form through the
   afternoon along and southwest of a weak frontal zone left in the
   wake of the departing low, across parts of NJ, southern NY and PA. 
   Other, isolated to widely scattered convection should develop in an
   increasingly unstable, favorably moist air mass with weak MLCINH
   across the remainder of the outlook area.  Isolated, marginally
   severe hail may occur, along with damaging gusts, with a few gusts
   near severe limits possible. 

   Height rises are expected across NY and New England today in the
   wake of the departing cyclone/trough, though the isallohypsic field
   will become more neutral with southward extent into VA.  As such,
   the main processes driving convective potential today will involve
   boundary-layer thermodynamics and mesoscale/boundary processes in
   low levels, including the frontal zone, sea-breeze boundaries, and
   preferential weakening of CINH through heating of higher terrain in
   western areas.  Weak low/middle-level winds will limit hodograph
   size and vertical shear.  However, well-mixed subcloud layers with
   steep low-level lapse rates will support maintenance of hail/gusts
   to the surface, and some mesobeta-scale clustering/cold-pool
   formation cannot be ruled out.  The threat should wane considerably
   this evening with diabatic surface cooling.

2) Given potential severe threat, would a severe t-strm watch be prudent or stick with hazardous weather outlook until the storms begin?

This may depend on how near-term models are trending. If the 1630 update upgrades the region to SLGT, I'd expect a SVR watch this afternoon. Otherwise, maybe a Meso Discussion. The SPC issues watches but the local NWS office issues hazardous weather outlooks and local warnings.

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jmister said:

 

Thanks for the explanation!!  Pardon my spelling as well. Missed a few words in my questions. 🙄

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

New update should be out soon, so will be interesting to see if upgraded to slight risk.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Marginal risk of svr storms tomorrow. Wouldn't shock me if that gets bumped to slight risk. Plenty of instability around and also a bit of an EML to work with too. 

You’re welcome 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

You’re welcome 

Gilly getting dumped on?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...