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Rainshadow5.8

2020 General Thunderstorm Discussion, Very Visionary.

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5 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

This mid morning-early afternoon MCS could be the fly in the ointment. 

527A8F17-8ADB-4290-B0DA-D74517B4E6EE.png

 

 

 

Seems like the earlier MCS will steal the energy from anything that develops later this afternoon/evening.

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9 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

This mid morning-early afternoon MCS could be the fly in the ointment. 

527A8F17-8ADB-4290-B0DA-D74517B4E6EE.png

Yea that could muck everything up. Could also be what spc is looking at for enhanced? The next MCS I see is by Chicago can’t see that being it. But yea if that comes in early it would screw the pooch for anything after. These MCS’s are a pain in the ass because modeling never does well with them 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea that could muck everything up. Could also be what spc is looking at for enhanced? The next MCS I see is by Chicago can’t see that being it. But yea if that comes in early it would screw the pooch for anything after. These MCS’s are a pain in the ass because modeling never does well with them 

That's the bow SPC is referring to, reflects well here

d05fc759-2060-4161-bcf3-8afd17ad92d7.gif

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2 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

That's the bow SPC is referring to, reflects well here

d05fc759-2060-4161-bcf3-8afd17ad92d7.gif

Ok so it is the complex by erie then. My issue with timing is that main complex goes north of us then it starts to get to late and we are left with little discrete cells shown there. 

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Assuming that model is correct and euro and others line up well with it. Best chance is north of town up through LV and pocs. Question becomes second wave with timing of that and how much atmosphere may be depleted by cloud debris etc for further south 

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59 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Assuming that model is correct and euro and others line up well with it. Best chance is north of town up through LV and pocs. Question becomes second wave with timing of that and how much atmosphere may be depleted by cloud debris etc for further south 

What is ongoing near Lake Erie was not well modeled by the 00z/06z mesoscale models.  It is more enhanced than what they had.

BTW I will start an obs thread.

 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Assuming that model is correct and euro and others line up well with it. Best chance is north of town up through LV and pocs. Question becomes second wave with timing of that and how much atmosphere may be depleted by cloud debris etc for further south 

I could have picked any of them in reality.   I am not saying the HRRR will be right but the 00z/06z posted models, don't have it, can't trust them going forward.

555.JPG.8f045ca9960df073ede15a54ae9241cd.JPG

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On 5/31/2020 at 9:51 AM, tombo82685 said:

Would keep an eye on Wednesday. As of now, looks like good surface heating to build instability with a disturbance swing around periphery of heat dome. There is also a bit of an EML too. 

Good call.

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can't believe how bad models handled that first round of storms, completely missed it. This last batch was the fear I had last night of timing cause we were getting closer to dark. Didn't really matter either

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22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

can't believe how bad models handled that first round of storms, completely missed it. This last batch was the fear I had last night of timing cause we were getting closer to dark. Didn't really matter either

I told ya, we golfed at Seaview (it was kind of buggy), any time we do that on a thunderstorm threat day, bank on it.

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Today upgraded to slight. Some in area may get hit 2 days in a row.

...Mid Atlantic region...

   A corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints will persist east of the
   higher terrain and along southern periphery of belt of modest
   westerlies. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   is expected from VA and MD into southern PA and NJ. Storms are
   expected to develop over the higher terrain and along lee trough as
   the boundary layer destabilizes. Vertical shear will remain weak,
   but 25-35 kt deep layer flow will support storms spreading east off
   the higher terrain, possibly evolving into loosely organized
   clusters capable of strong to damaging wind gusts.

day1otlk_1200.gif

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56 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Today upgraded to slight. Some in area may get hit 2 days in a row.


...Mid Atlantic region...

   A corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints will persist east of the
   higher terrain and along southern periphery of belt of modest
   westerlies. By early to mid afternoon, MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   is expected from VA and MD into southern PA and NJ. Storms are
   expected to develop over the higher terrain and along lee trough as
   the boundary layer destabilizes. Vertical shear will remain weak,
   but 25-35 kt deep layer flow will support storms spreading east off
   the higher terrain, possibly evolving into loosely organized
   clusters capable of strong to damaging wind gusts.

day1otlk_1200.gif

What's the timing of Round 2?

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3 hours ago, cbelke said:

What's the timing of Round 2?

appears to be later evening unless you get a stray pop up.  Generally 6-midnight

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I think there will be a few svr storms this evening, but outside of instability created by the sun not a ton of dry air aloft for big winds. This seems more CAPE driven so once sun goes down storms may start to weaken. Heavy rain threat is there, esp tomorrow even though no svr risk right now 

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2 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Generally 6-midnight

So essentially Tom when he sees a frost advisory?

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Mt. Holly (and State College) the east coast watch hot spot so far this year.

2020_svrww_to_date.png

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11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Storms today? 

Can’t rule it out. Best shot is philly south and east 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Can’t rule it out. Best shot is philly south and east 

Spc upgrades the area to marginal risk 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Spc upgrades the area to marginal risk 

yea I just saw, shocked they pushed it that far nw. still looks to me like i95 on southeast 

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Looks like the best shot for any severe stuff today is well west of 476.  

day1otlk_1200.gif

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SPC has us juuuuust on the edge of marginal today. Some of you folks out west might get some action again, we'll need the trough to push through before the evening cooling to see any action in the city. 

   ...Upper OH Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
   A shortwave trough will slowly move east across the Great Lakes.
   Moderate mid-level southwesterlies attendant to the trough will
   largely remain confined from the Upper OH Valley and central
   Appalachians westward through this afternoon. Remnants of ongoing
   convection near a cold front across western OH to the IN/KY border
   should intensify towards early afternoon as modest boundary-layer
   heating occurs ahead of this boundary. Additional storms should also
   develop by late afternoon along a lee trough from south-central PA
   through western/central VA. 

   Poor mid-level lapse rates as sampled by area 12Z soundings should
   support only modest MLCAPE by June standards with values from
   750-1500 J/kg, about a half to two-thirds of yesterday. Given this
   along with modest deep-layer shear east of the Appalachians,
   substantial storm-scale organization may prove difficult. As such,
   locally damaging winds from microbursts appear to be the most likely
   hazard.

   ..Grams/Kerr.. 06/23/2020

Screen Shot 2020-06-23 at 11.54.54 AM.png

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looks like a repeat of yesterday storms start to move in as sun goes down and they lose their intensity. B est chance nw montco, chester, berks

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