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Rainshadow5.8

2020 General Thunderstorm Discussion, Very Visionary.

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Open Sarcasm.  Just another typical 21st Century February Day:      Close sarcasm.

day1otlk_1300.gif.4562bdb7edeba9aca90a6c4d43839b8c.gif

...Mid-Atlantic region...
   A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop
   by around mid-afternoon across parts of western VA and WV, shifting
   eastward and northeastward across portions of the Blue Ridge/
   Shenandoah region and southern PA, with additional convection
   potentially forming over central VA.  Given the intense ambient wind
   fields and strong deep shear, damaging wind -- including isolated
   severe gusts -- may penetrate to the surface.  Some of the
   convection responsible for such gusts may be too shallow to produce
   lightning.

   As the trough aloft approaches, and the low-level cyclone
   tightens/deepens, deep-layer forcing and low-level mass response
   will intensify, supporting convective organization even in very
   weakly unstable conditions.  Low/middle-level lapse rates should
   steepen just enough -- from a combination of subtle heating and warm
   advection in the low level with the leading part of trough-related
   cooling aloft -- to produce neutrally to convectively unstable
   conditions.  MUCAPE in the 100-500 J/kg range is possible over the
   outlook area -- generally weaker with northwestward extent as
   low-level theta-e lessens.  Still, given the intense winds in
   mid/upper levels and fast convective motion, sporadic strong to
   locally severe gusts may occur, and even gusts below defined (50-kt)
   severe limits will be capable of damaging trees.  If 12Z or later
   guidance and mesoscale trends increase confidence in a particular
   channel or swath of convective-wind potential within this area, a
   15%/slight-risk upgrade could be needed in one of the day-shift
   updates.

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Not sure if this fits here but I wonder if there will be any fireworks in this:

Today
Areas of drizzle with a chance of rain before 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Areas of dense fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
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1 hour ago, White_Mtn_Wx said:

Not sure if this fits here but I wonder if there will be any fireworks in this:

Today
Areas of drizzle with a chance of rain before 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Areas of dense fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

It is instability aloft above the marine puke.  Predicted total totals are in the upper 40s which is adequate for thunder.

This is the SREF predicted MUCAPE:

1.JPG.1f343343267043d29a0896f68174a8b7.JPG

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7 minutes ago, greg ralls said:

What time does it look like the "storms" will arrive?

Midnight-3am

11694079-36AA-4E79-B288-8E88C2ACBF24.jpeg

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Bad timing with any storms in early am.

Eastward advection of the convectively unstable thermodynamic
   profiles, east of the Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic
   coastal areas is forecast overnight.  This may occur above a
   residual stable layer near the surface, but it should contribute to
   increasing severe weather potential, at least in the form of
   thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail.

day1otlk_1200.gif

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Bad timing with any storms in early am.


Eastward advection of the convectively unstable thermodynamic
   profiles, east of the Appalachians into northern Mid Atlantic
   coastal areas is forecast overnight.  This may occur above a
   residual stable layer near the surface, but it should contribute to
   increasing severe weather potential, at least in the form of
   thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail.

day1otlk_1200.gif

 

Any chance that slides up more our way??

 

 

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39 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

Any chance that slides up more our way??

 

 

Slight chance, surface heating not required,  - latest from SPC  below

A separate round of thunderstorms is expected late tonight from PA
   into the Mid-Atlantic with the surface cyclone and embedded
   mid-upper speed max.  Though these storms will likely be elevated,
   sufficient buoyancy is expected for at least some threat for large
   hail, and perhaps a few strong/damaging gusts that could reach the
   surface.
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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Slight chance, surface heating not required,  - latest from SPC  below


A separate round of thunderstorms is expected late tonight from PA
   into the Mid-Atlantic with the surface cyclone and embedded
   mid-upper speed max.  Though these storms will likely be elevated,
   sufficient buoyancy is expected for at least some threat for large
   hail, and perhaps a few strong/damaging gusts that could reach the
   surface.

Even the weather has been boring. Need something to liven things up a bit. 

 

 

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Well, I'll take a few nice rumbles of thunder at 3:15 AM. Better than nothing. 

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Still a ways off, but euro is trending to a fairly substantial threat, relative to what we normally see,  next monday.

trend-ecmwf_full-2020040800-f138.sfctd_b.us_ma.gif

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slgt yawn risk up today. Biggest issue is damaging winds, or damaging yawns, whichever you prefer

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

slgt yawn risk up today. Biggest issue is damaging winds, or damaging yawns, whichever you prefer

 

Timing hasn't been good this week - too early (today) or late

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

slgt yawn risk up today. Biggest issue is damaging winds, or damaging yawns, whichever you prefer

Wouldn’t sleep on this threat..remnant EML, strong lljj and the forcing to go with it. These past few squall lines have been impressive. 

64E7EF5E-4CE8-407F-882D-6C61EC3B278A.png

EF70EA8C-3AF8-45EE-B3CA-8B4F6865A695.png

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Add in some clearing like out by Harrisburg..could be a fun little afternoon whoever gets under the best convective elements. 

555940EB-F950-4241-91D2-85C1B20EB7E9.png

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Latest update

...Mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor through early afternoon...
   In the wake of weakening morning convection, there will be a window
   of opportunity for surface-based destabilization from northeast VA
   across MD/DE into NJ.  Forcing for ascent along a cold front south
   of a deepening cyclone in NY, and immediately in advance of a strong
   midlevel shortwave trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak over
   IN/OH, will support a band of thunderstorms along the front in the
   15-19z time frame.  Steepening low-level lapse rates, MLCAPE near
   500 J/kg, strong deep-layer vertical shear, and 50 kt flow below 700
   mb will all support a threat for damaging winds, marginally severe
   hail, and perhaps a tornado with the late morning to early afternoon
   convection.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued a few minutes ago. Buckle your seatbelts, it could be a bumpy ride.

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Monday depends on timing - slower like ukie/euro is more threatening. Ukie sounding below  (thx pivotal!) 

ukmet_2020040912_102_39.78--75.33.png

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49 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Monday depends on timing - slower like ukie/euro is more threatening. Ukie sounding below  (thx pivotal!) 

ukmet_2020040912_102_39.78--75.33.png

They have to work on their dew points.  Decent squall line for early April.

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25 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

 

 

for my backyard it was a yawnfest, but in general it was a decent svr event. Didn't seem like it was that impressive till I saw the reports

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