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tombo82685

February/Smarch Weather Pattern Discussion, Paging Feb, Paging Feb.

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7 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Pac jet drifts south instead of blasting into NW coast, could support a slower, meridional flow over Conus, if it's accurate

see Roundy tweet above (or below).

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Just in time for March 

Fixed. Yay another wet stretch ahead 

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59 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Fixed. Yay another wet stretch ahead 

I have moss growing on our trash can lid.

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27 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I have moss growing on our trash can lid.

What about the lady peeing?

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Just in time for Smarch.

I'll share photos of crying children in parkas at State College easter egg hunts being held in white rain slush. 

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IMO, I think it's lights out for the rest of February in terms of any meaningful snow chances. The Pv coupled with the trop just has an absolute strangle hold on the high latitudes with low pressure and cold air all bottled up. That will continue to promote zonal flow coming off the pacific. You can see on the NAM that little area of -NAM teleconnects well with the cold shot tomorrow and Saturday as we got a little tranisent blocking come across the pole to dislodge some colder air south. In my february outlook I mentioned after the 10/1th of February would be a period to watch to see if we could weaken the pv as it looked like there may be some wave 1/wave 2 hits that may transpire to alter the arctic pattern. Well that did not happen at all, all we got was this transient period. You can see the NAM index below the tiny area of -NAM before we go back to +NAM overwhelming the pattern. gfs_nh-namindex_20200213.png.3bb02b7d268a0d2a632eeff348f9c678.png

 

Can also see below the pv is forecasted to approach record level this time of year for strength, combine that with the trop being coupled with it, why would we see any flip towards a better pattern in the arctic region to bring cold south? There are no progged wave 1 or 2 hits either.

u_60N_10hpa.png.a7c282129a1bb10bb937df242323babd.png

The mjo may help to change the pacific region specifically the the PNA region, but I don't think we see any of those effects till the last couple days of February. Even so, it will take a bit of time to flush all the pacific air out that has engulfed parts of Canada and the US due to the +EPO. Even if we get a +pna, there is no guarantee we flip the epo domain with the PV strength. Getting into the first week of March normal cold air won't do it. You need a decent source region and I'm not sure the pna will have enough power. I would say though, the best possibility for something would be first couple weeks of March before the door shuts. 

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EPS never came out on weatherbell, so not sure what they showed. But natural gas trading fell right around 2am so I imagine they were warm again 

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With the rest of Feb shot, the eps do bring in some good cold air to start March. If it holds, would set the table for something first week of March

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

With the rest of Feb shot, the eps do bring in some good cold air to start March. If it holds, would set the table for something first week of March

I’m sad for you

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

With the rest of Feb shot, the eps do bring in some good cold air to start March. If it holds, would set the table for something first week of March

GEFS, GEPS, CFS are supportive, but strat forecast is meh.  Hoping for one 6" threat in March to make the Tom/Tony bet more interesting.

gefs_pcolor.png

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12 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

GEFS, GEPS, CFS are supportive, but strat forecast is meh.  Hoping for one 6" threat in March to make the Tom/Tony bet more interesting.

gefs_pcolor.png

There will probably be at least six 6" or greater GFS forecasts during March for PHL, so I will have that going for me...

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17 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

There will probably be at least six 6" or greater GFS forecasts during March for PHL Myrtle Beach, so I will have that going for me...

Fixed

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

GEFS, GEPS, CFS are supportive, but strat forecast is meh.  Hoping for one 6" threat in March to make the Tom/Tony bet more interesting.

 

Yea I'm skeptical we get a prolonged favorable look with how strat looks. Regardless, the mjo makes a brief appearance in colder phases then starts to head towards the common ground this winter of convection around Australia. So whatever cold does come, it still looks like it wouldn't hold for long. That being saif, eps also continue to indicate a good cold shot starting for March

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49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like another shot of Barney next week. What is causing these shots of arctic air? @tombo82685

020EE13B-89F9-4CE6-9714-DE2752A41B91.png

Transient poleward pos pna that pushes into epo domain. That brings the flow briefly from AK and North Pole and dumps cold into trough. That ridge rolls over and becomes our torchy look in the day 8-12 period

4DF63140-9866-4484-A0C0-7312819BD8E0.png

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Also. Cold shot to start March is gaining some legs as strat trop look decouples for a bit allowing some -NAM starting to show up late FEb would set stage possibly for wintry event first week of March 

37B391F2-B485-46D8-8EFE-F32C669FE8C4.png

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37 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

One can hope...

 

as long as that -NAM doesn't disappear i'd bank on a cold shot to startMarch

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