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tombo82685

February/Smarch Weather Pattern Discussion, Paging Feb, Paging Feb.

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eps continue to advertise a colder pattern by the middle of the first week of FEB. It's driven entirely by +pna t first but then start to try and kick the lower hgts out of AK. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0882400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0990400.png

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

eps continue to advertise a colder pattern by the middle of the first week of FEB. It's driven entirely by +pna t first but then start to try and kick the lower hgts out of AK. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0882400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0990400.png

18z gefs hinting at similar evolution

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can see on the euro the strat is starting to get better aligned for colder air to be transported into the US

 

we go from here

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-9996800.png.a5fa388d3fc60771c5a460a1a6e5bba8.png

to here by day 10

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0558400.png.4300dd5c152deb270c13f7e7bdd91ec3.png

gotta get those warm anoms into AK or scand 

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MJO wise there is good agreement betwee OLR and VP maps. The vp maps show two areas of convection, one moving through phases 8 and 1 with another wave developing in phase 2 moving into phase 3 towards middle of Feb. 

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

Roundy plots generally showing the same thing with main forcing from 8 going into 1-2-3 into mid feb. These are all colder phases for Feb. They Also show a strong kelvin wave developing in phase 5 at the end of Jan that moves quickly into 6-7 before dying in 8 by feb 10

 

2020 (1).png

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euro continues to get better and better with start look towards start of Feb.Can see see how strat PV is aligned now more north south and the big warm anoms that were centered over central Canada has moved more towards Greenland and parts of Europe while another area develops pver NPAC.  Can see how the pv is starting to get stretched out due to an increase in wave 2 hit.  The look is getting better for transporting cold into the US. Need to get this to rotate a bit more so we get the warming more into Europe and towards AK. Chances are increasing though of colder changes strat related towards beginning of FEB if this holds up 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0601600.png.35f6e73e496cde179933e641dc47fce3.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

euro continues to get better and better with start look towards start of Feb.Can see see how strat PV is aligned now more north south and the big warm anoms that were centered over central Canada has moved more towards Greenland and parts of Europe while another area develops pver NPAC.  Can see how the pv is starting to get stretched out due to an increase in wave 2 hit.  The look is getting better for transporting cold into the US. Need to get this to rotate a bit more so we get the warming more into Europe and towards AK. Chances are increasing though of colder changes strat related towards beginning of FEB if this holds up 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0601600.png.35f6e73e496cde179933e641dc47fce3.png

GEFS continue to say no. But perhaps that’s a good thing lol 

A89127C2-4AAA-41CF-8D62-21C07A48AFB7.png

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

eps continue to advertise a colder pattern by the middle of the first week of FEB. It's driven entirely by +pna t first but then start to try and kick the lower hgts out of AK. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0882400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0990400.png

One would think that where the MJO phases will be during the first half of the month, that modeling "should" trend colder.

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It's admirable that the eternal optimism has returned after the annual brief period of negativity.  It's always darkest before dawn.

/apologies for the banter-y post

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8 minutes ago, PreserveJon said:

It's admirable that the eternal optimism has returned after the annual brief period of negativity.  It's always darkest before dawn.

/apologies for the banter-y post

Eternal is a bit strong...until Tombo posts a dancing weenie, we are still in the midst of apprehension 

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8 minutes ago, PreserveJon said:

It's admirable that the eternal optimism has returned after the annual brief period of negativity.  It's always darkest before dawn.

/apologies for the banter-y post

Yea, I’m hopeful after the 5th. While before that it looks active, I just don’t know if temps will be cold enough to allow for snow.  If I was in the Poconos I’d be licking my chops. 

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

Eternal is a bit strong...until Tombo post a dancing weenie, we are still in the midst of apprehension 

Till I see strat pv flip around and the trough gets out of AK there will be no dancing weenies 

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Till I see strat pv flip around and the trough gets out of AK there will be no dancing weenies 

Yes, the day (hopefully 1st half of Feb) the AK trough moves out is a day worthy of celebration.  I dont even care if every other indice is against us, just ship that stalwart pos out

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Taking one out of the weenie handbook - my trip to Florida the first week of Feb may give us a window

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Beautiful eps run as it kicks the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get a -NAO as the Hudson ridge moves towards Greenland. 
 

now reality check....let’s get this inside 7 days.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Beautiful eps run as it kicks the vortex out by the 3rd. We even get a -NAO as the Hudson ridge moves towards Greenland. 
 

now reality check....let’s get this inside 7 days.

Eventually one of these will come to pass, but I'm not biting or buying tickets to FLA until this makes it to day 9.

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36 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Eventually one of these will come to pass, but I'm not biting or buying tickets to FLA until this makes it to hr 1

Fixed 

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47 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Eventually one of these will come to pass, but I'm not biting or buying tickets to FLA until this makes it to day 9.

Btw, if the pattern goes to poo now here is the proof of the gigi jinx

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58 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Btw, if the pattern goes to poo now here is the proof of the gigi jinx

I don’t think there is much one can or can’t do to jinx a 3______ hr GFS prog. It’s destined to go sideways.  I know the when the GFS is warm in la la land it is warm, but there was a flip with the la la land outlooks in Mid Dec. Whether it was the NAM switch or not, this la la land false cold promises have been falling more than my putts today.  Can it/will it change, yes. When I don’t know.

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34 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don’t think there is much one can or can’t do to jinx a 3______ hr GFS prog. It’s destined to go sideways.  I know the when the GFS is warm in la la land it is warm, but there was a flip with the la la land outlooks in Mid Dec. Whether it was the NAM switch or not, this la la land false cold promises have been falling more than my putts today.  Can it/will it change, yes. When I don’t know.

Smay

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17 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Big Change in the GEFS this run with a ++pna by the 3rd. Drops the hammer with cold. 

GEFS overnight took away the +pna and dropped a trough into the west coast. We still get a cold shot around the 5th but that look is eeeeeek.

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