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tombo82685

1/18 first accumulating snow or more YAWNTER?

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Ukmet also in 0z euro camp with very amped. So far gfs on a weenie island all by itself pending euro 

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def a nice improvement on euro towards a flatter system isn't nearly as wound up as 0z. Thursday system was a good bit stronger which made for a stronger cold push behind it. Gets accumulating snow all the way to DC. Hopefully we continue the trend

 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-philly-total_snow_10to1-9392000.png

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This is the run to run change at h5. Can see the lower hgts in the lakes and northeast while higher hgts in the west. Meaning the trough in the west isn't as amped and the hgts in the east aren't as high this run. Thus a bit flatter system and colder. 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-9262400.png

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

def a nice improvement on euro towards a flatter system isn't nearly as wound up as 0z. Thursday system was a good bit stronger which made for a stronger cold push behind it. Gets accumulating snow all the way to DC. Hopefully we continue the trend

The past 3 days of euro runs. For whatever reason, 00z has been less snowy than 12z. Overall trends are OK we are staying in the game on the S or SE edge.

trend-ecmwf_full-2020011212-f156.sn10_024h.us_ma.gif

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This is the run to run change at h5. Can see the lower hgts in the lakes and northeast while higher hgts in the west. Meaning the trough in the west isn't as amped and the hgts in the east aren't as high this run. Thus a bit flatter system and colder. 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_dprog-9262400.png

Nuances matter, but the general idea (pattern) is starting to hold.  Funny how the low doesn't move event though the height field changes a little.

index.gif.5ad63fbfe4636d8e62b40f533abf4a39.gif

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The past 3 days of euro runs. For whatever reason, 00z has been less snowy than 12z. Overall trends are OK we are staying in the game on the S or SE edge.

trend-ecmwf_full-2020011212-f156.sn10_024h.us_ma.gif

That is why I prefer to see the ensemble trend/spread more so than the OP.  One doesn't know where the OP is going to fall within the spectrum of members until they arrive.  E.G. The OP GGEM was a snowless outlier. Granted I am misusing this somewhat too because ensembles are also about uncertainties and confidence than a final solution.  Then to speak out of both sides of my mouth as I am thoroughly enjoying your cake, consensus forecasting in the long run is more accurate than any lone wolf.

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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

That is why I prefer to see the ensemble trend/spread more so than the OP.  One doesn't know where the OP is going to fall within the spectrum of members until they arrive.  E.G. The OP GGEM was a snowless outlier. Granted I am misusing this somewhat too because ensembles are also about uncertainties and confidence than a final solution.  Then to speak out of both sides of my mouth as I am thoroughly enjoying your cake, consensus forecasting in the long run is more accurate than any lone wolf.

Same theme on eps, lower hgts in east, higher out west. This is comparing 12z to 0z h5 hgts

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_dprog-9262400.png

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good bump upward in snowfall on 12z eps. Snowiest for this event so far. We will see if this continues forward

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-9435200.png

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31 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

The past 3 days of euro runs. For whatever reason, 00z has been less snowy than 12z. Overall trends are OK we are staying in the game on the S or SE edge.

trend-ecmwf_full-2020011212-f156.sn10_024h.us_ma.gif

Past 30 days in the PNA region the Euro is more skillful on the 12z runs than the 00z runs.  I am sure this is within noise.  The 00z GFS is more skillful than the 12z GFS (4th place behind GGEM).  Then again likely within noise but not great either way.  Amazing stat is that the improvement from day 6 to day 5 is about equal to the improvement between day 5 and day 3.

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I'm officially on @Allsnow back for a front ender. Not sure how many people he can hold so might as well get on while you can 

TediousFirsthandEel-size_restricted.gif

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Past 30 days in the PNA region the Euro is more skillful on the 12z runs than the 00z runs.  I am sure this is within noise.  The 00z GFS is more skillful than the 12z run.  Then again within noise. Amazing stat is that the improvement from day 6 to day 5 is about equal to the improvement between day 5 and day 3.

I'm sticking with 12z euro then. :smileys-snowman-924988:

Here is the gfs for the same runs in the past 3 days (no off-hour runs). Much snowier than euro, but position differences between euro and gfs are narrowing.

trend-gfs_flx-2020011212-f168.snodpc_acc.us_ma.gif

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I'm officially on @Allsnow back for a front ender. Not sure how many people he can hold so might as well get on while you can 

TediousFirsthandEel-size_restricted.gif

Both of you are in pretty good shape. Iffier down here riding the EPS 2" line.

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32 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

I'm sticking with 12z euro then. :smileys-snowman-924988:

Here is the gfs for the same runs in the past 3 days (no off-hour runs). Much snowier than euro, but position differences between euro and gfs are narrowing.

trend-gfs_flx-2020011212-f168.snodpc_acc.us_ma.gif

If you avoid looking at the GFS, its ensemble mean has been about half an inch higher the EPS which at this juncture looks strangely reasonable.

To get to the 100% confidence level over the next couple of days, try to get these to occur

1) ICON brings measurable; it has been Dr. NO and easy to be Dr. NO when it doesn't snow. Nonetheless....

2) Have every GGEM member have measurable snow. Every EPS member having measurable has not worked. 

3) Keep the EPS mean north of 2".

4) Have (I am guessing) more than half of the EPS members have 2" or more, kind of rolls with 3.

5) Get the GEFS ensemble mean reach close to 6", sad but true. Thankfully I don't think this will be necessary with this one.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Verification is in the eye of the beholder, this is how the within 24 hour forecasts verified.  Dark blue is 4-6".  Light blue is the start of 1".  

 

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

4.JPG

I guess it was 36 hours out. Because there was some big totals being forecasted by the models in Iowa and Wisconsin that never materialized.

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I guess it was 36 hours out. Because there was some big totals being forecasted by the models in Iowa and Wisconsin that never materialized.

Yea it was 2-3 days out. Green Bay was suppose to get 6-10 and it didn’t even snow there lol

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea it was 2-3 days out. Green Bay was suppose to get 6-10 and it didn’t even snow there lol

It must have...

they showed them clearing the stadium of snow (unless that was a different storm)!?

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

That is why I prefer to see the ensemble trend/spread more so than the OP.  One doesn't know where the OP is going to fall within the spectrum of members until they arrive.  E.G. The OP GGEM was a snowless outlier. Granted I am misusing this somewhat too because ensembles are also about uncertainties and confidence than a final solution.  Then to speak out of both sides of my mouth as I am thoroughly enjoying your cake, consensus forecasting in the long run is more accurate than any lone wolf.

Been wondering what the purpose of the “operational run” is? Why not use the ensemble mean as the “operational”? Tony, with regard to cake, I had some of your famous butter cake last night. It was excellent.🥮

746806348_20200111_1837522.jpg.48f7a780c96ace6af9f5520ae1b3dc6f.jpg

 

 

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8 minutes ago, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

Been wondering what the purpose of the “operational run” is? Why not use the ensemble mean as the “operational”? Tony, with regard to cake, I had some of your famous butter cake last night. It was excellent.🥮

746806348_20200111_1837522.jpg.48f7a780c96ace6af9f5520ae1b3dc6f.jpg

 

 

Time constraints are part of the problem with East coast offices. They have coarser resolutions too, so finer details closer in to crunch time will be lost.

This will never happen, but I’d love to see an operational run blend.

Must be my wife’s cake.  I am known for my Butler Cake.

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21 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

It must have...

they showed them clearing the stadium of snow (unless that was a different storm)!?

6z gfs run on thurs

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png.9a6df6e86d286b30cd2f95ecc0240a8e.png

reality what happened, they got nothing. Thats 3 days away

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGRB.html

 

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

6z gfs run on thurs

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_12.png.9a6df6e86d286b30cd2f95ecc0240a8e.png

reality what happened, they got nothing. Thats 3 days away

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KGRB.html

 

The GFS is nothing but consistent, it can blow chunks on a snowfall forecast anywhere, anytime.  Just like us, Green Bay Cheeseheads wanted a GEFS snowfall mean much higher than 4.6" to guarantee measurable snow.  That takes the cake!

3.JPG.8d6ef578dddd88b8e182a9898b371ba7.JPG

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The GFS is nothing but consistent, it can blow chunks on a snowfall forecast anywhere, anytime.  Just like us, Green Bay Cheeseheads wanted a GEFS snowfall mean much higher than 4.6" to guarantee measurable snow.  That takes the cake!

3.JPG.8d6ef578dddd88b8e182a9898b371ba7.JPG

wasn't just the gfs, euro had 8" there, whoops

 

sn10_024h.us_mw.png

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Just now, snowwors2 said:

Their snow Must have been on Friday then?

yea, probably earlier storm, not the one slated for last night

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