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Rainshadow5.8

Results Of Barney VI, You Are A Fossil, But You Are Not Encased In Ice.

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I have been noticing a pattern that the frigidaire GFS cold bias is not as cold with NAM support.  This is not aligned as Barney comes before the -NAM.  Far be for the GFS to be too fast. :facepalm: The MJO is also rolling over favorably, so we will see.   In a typical scenario, the duration is way overdone even if the absolute minimum is not bad.  If the -NAM disappears, I will start cuing Teletubby episodes again.

 

 

1.JPG

11.JPG

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Keep em rolling yoda, a lot more of these threads to come

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Keep em rolling yoda, a lot more of these threads to come

The previous thread had a whopping 52 views.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

The previous thread had a whopping 52 views.

I was all 52 of them, and thats all that matters

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On 1/11/2020 at 9:58 AM, tombo82685 said:

I was all 52 of them, and thats all that matters

I guess you are all 28 views on this thread.  

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9 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

I don't really understand much of what I'm looking at, but I'm trying to roll with osmosis...

The Cliff Notes version:  Tom keeps on telling me I get hot and bothered with all of those 90 degree threads in the summer.  I keep on telling him, well those 90 degree threads get thousands of looks vs the <100 looks for these Barney cold threads.  He tells me since all of those looks are his, it is quality over quantity.

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On 1/13/2020 at 8:31 AM, Rainshadow said:

I guess you are all 28 views on this thread.  

Yes, and thats all that matters. A happy Tom, is a happy phillywx forum

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

There's a Barney VII in the making:

1.JPG.001cdf4b748967013d6d0728aeb25ff2.JPG

Literally just looked at the 12z GFS and said the same exact thing lol. Barney colors on the WxBell maps usually start around -12C and we got a huge chunk of around -16C here

gfs_T850a_eus_31.png

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On 1/14/2020 at 1:22 PM, ACwx said:

Literally just looked at the 12z GFS and said the same exact thing lol. Barney colors on the WxBell maps usually start around -12C and we got a huge chunk of around -16C here

gfs_T850a_eus_31.png

Now this is what it looks like:

gfs_T850a_eus_8.png.397cf80286f720819f5155ba34d4679e.png

 

GFS overdoing cold outbreaks, not at all said no one ever:

LOL deg C no less:

ANOM2m_f120_verification_ntham.png.c1ad4fc07101a6ab180f66ba3acbb67e.png

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Now this is what it looks like:

gfs_T850a_eus_8.png.397cf80286f720819f5155ba34d4679e.png

 

GFS overdoing cold outbreaks, not at all said no one ever:

LOL deg C no less:

ANOM2m_f120_verification_ntham.png.c1ad4fc07101a6ab180f66ba3acbb67e.png

 

 

 

GFS Barney

Image result for purple godzilla

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Have to wait for PHL min for week, but lowest 1000-500mb thickness was 523 on the morning of the 20th. Cold bias GFS stopped forecasting too low thicknesses at 06z on 18th, about 48 hours prior. It was forecasting Barney (blo) thicknesses up to about 4 days prior.

Lowest predicted thickness was 501, longest duration of consecutive Barney thicknesses was 72 hours.

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On 1/20/2020 at 5:30 PM, tombo82685 said:

Atleast Barney doesn’t let us down 

He loves us and we love him

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About three days from "Barney" cold bias GFS finally started forecasting representative thicknesses and minimum temperatures.

Prior to two days before, there were no, none, zippo, nada, niente, blutarsky, zero GFS runs that predicted a bottom thickness higher than reality.

 

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