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Rainshadow5.8

Barney V Was A Fossil / Jan 8th-9th Barney OutBreak Verified

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Like any good cold outbreak to quote Cosmo Castorini

Cosmo Castorini:
There are three kinds of pipes (medium range models to verify cold outbreaks for accuracy). There's aluminum (aka GFS), which is garbage. There's bronze (aka GGEM), which is pretty good, unless something goes wrong. And something always goes wrong. Then, there's copper (aka EC), which is the only pipe I use. It costs money. It costs money because it saves money.

Exhibit A:

gfs_T850a_us_41.png.0178067acd78aa8bbfe7b0adbec90ee6.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

gem_T850a_us_41.png

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That being said, model agreement exists for a cold outbreak.  Chances are given the GFS's track record, no the thicknesses won't be this low and no, this outbreak won't last til the middle of May.  We are still beyond day 8 or 9 to be truly certain, although given the tropical convection in the western Pacific, I would say yes.

I'll add a table, but the OP GFS already has had some Barney runs that are making Barney run for a coat:

24/06z Low thickness 490 with 60 consecutive hours of sub 516 thicknesses

26/06z (seeing a theme already) 72 consecutive hours of sub 516 thicknesses

26/18z (wow, another off sounding model run), 72 consecutive hours of sub 516 thicknesses.

 

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On 12/27/2019 at 8:56 AM, Rainshadow said:

Like any good cold outbreak to quote Cosmo Castorini

Cosmo Castorini:
There are three kinds of pipes (medium range models to verify cold outbreaks for accuracy). There's aluminum (aka GFS), which is garbage. There's bronze (aka GGEM), which is pretty good, unless something goes wrong. And something always goes wrong. Then, there's copper (aka EC), which is the only pipe I use. It costs money. It costs money because it saves money.

Exhibit A:

gfs_T850a_us_41.png.0178067acd78aa8bbfe7b0adbec90ee6.png

 

 

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png

gem_T850a_us_41.png

This was the verification:

gfs_T850a_us_1.png.ed7172b8bd6459bb3033ba11caf0ec2a.png

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I will include the file. Some serious thoughts on Frigidaire GFS.

Yeah its not going to miss a cold outbreak, but prior to a week out it is going to be too fast and chances are in off sounding runs too cold.

Timing nailed: A week out.  Two of sixty-two runs too slow.  Up to one week too fast.

Minimum temperature nailed: 5 days out

Stopped forecasting too low thicknesses (too much cold air anywhere in the column):  36 hours out (don't be near the snow/rain fence before then).

 

Verification:

 Lowest Thickness: 517 / January 8th

 Lowest Temperature:  23F  / January 9th

 

1.JPG

2.JPG

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4.JPG

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This is awesome analysis...I wonder if it would be beneficial for NCEP or whoever makes the GFS / FV3 upgrades to see this kind of information to be aware of it for the next upgrade? I mean I don't think they're blind to the model biases or anything, just curious what exactly they may take into account whenever they make the upgrades - maybe they need to look at different information since the GFS seems to keep getting worse lol. I don't think everything can be corrected, but the cold bias seems to have carried over for a while

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3 hours ago, ACwx said:

This is awesome analysis...I wonder if it would be beneficial for NCEP or whoever makes the GFS / FV3 upgrades to see this kind of information to be aware of it for the next upgrade? I mean I don't think they're blind to the model biases or anything, just curious what exactly they may take into account whenever they make the upgrades - maybe they need to look at different information since the GFS seems to keep getting worse lol. I don't think everything can be corrected, but the cold bias seems to have carried over for a while

I think they knew the cold bias, or the even colder cold bias was not totally eliminated.  This is suppose to be a whole new GFS, so hopefully there won't be a bump in the rug effect. 

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