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tombo82685

December 1st-2nd maybe winter storm.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

It did produce nw of nyc in nj towards Morristown. They had 6-12”

Yeah, it’s a different world (vs. urbanization)  heading west on 78 or 80, especially approaching and west of 287. Reminds me of driving north on 476 once north of Plymouth meeting. 

B806729D-A2AB-4809-B81B-2FDDB6391BAB.png

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3 hours ago, JimCaruso said:

 

Tony, can you explain this 90th percentile issue a bit more? I understand the issue of continuity on Monday, but you mentioned this 90th percentile issue on Sunday also. It was on Sunday that the snowfall forecast jumped and the winter storm warnings were issued. Why would forecasts and warnings be issued for a snowfall that (if I am interpreting the 90th percentile issue correctly) even at that time had only a 10% chance of verifying? Not being critical of NWS at all, I am not qualified to do so, I am just trying to understand more about the forecasting process because it interests me as a weather geek, and so that I can better interpret forecasts in the future. I also have a general interest in the concepts of probabilistic vs deterministic forecasts, not only as to meteorology but as to how it transfers to my day job which includes forecasting my company's financial results. 

Jim,

You misread it.   I said It most likely wasn’t a 90th percentile forecast yesterday afternoon, but it is now.  The now being Monday.   

I know this would go the way of CPC's equal chances in terms of public responses, but probability of exceedence or percentile handles the uncertainty of snowfall forecasting so much better than a single deterministic number or range.  I get this is more helpful to responders than it would be to the general public, but people see those snowfall maps (whether model or locally generated) and give them way (as in way) more skill than they deserve.

I used to love what one Met at Mt. Holly used to tell me when I used to use the Boston Snowfall Tool in Awips and it captured topographical and meteorological nuances.  he said to me, Tony that snowfall map is very precise, but inaccurate.  I couldnt disagree with him. 

 

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40 minutes ago, Parsley said:

Yeah, it’s a different world (vs. urbanization)  heading west on 78 or 80, especially approaching and west of 287. Reminds me of driving north on 476 once north of Plymouth meeting. 

B806729D-A2AB-4809-B81B-2FDDB6391BAB.png

It is twofold, farther away from the coast and also an increase in elevation (de facto colder).

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

It is twofold, farther away from the coast and also an increase in elevation (de facto colder).

True. 

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