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tombo82685

December 1st-2nd maybe winter storm.

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In terms of trends, on the eps 0z was a touch snowier than 12z eps, but nothing like 18z. Looked like the ull energy wasn't as strong thus it took a bit longer to get coastal low going, so everything was delayed in going off. Something we don't want. We need that coastal low to get going fast as possible. Anyways, here is the trend from 0z europ to 6z euro now. Couple noticeable changes again. Stronger ridging out west. ULL looks a hair slower, maybe  bit southwest too. 50/50 low looks to have a bit more influence. Also,  more ridging over the top as you're getting less interaction with the 50/50 low and tpv to the north.  Just my guess, it looks like the ULL would take a further south pass on 6z from 0z going off this. 

5ddfb9e38713f.gif

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big increase on 6z eps snow amounts, as it's colder for one thing and it has an ULL pass just like 18z. Also, timing is a bit slower too. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-5439200.png

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2 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

big increase on 6z eps snow amounts, as it's colder for one thing and it has an ULL pass just like 18z. Also, timing is a bit slower too. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-5439200.png

Indi’s

 

EA7F7E6A-FD4C-4533-9D08-9098D2A787A7.png.1f666327538a5fef84ce6393eb08e5e4.png2D2C6D0A-050F-4667-A684-A7E910FEBD23.png.bb5231b44ce301da3f4e6402cc70ffaf.png

 

let’s see if we can get the 12z suite to play ball. 
 

going to start a new thread in the short term for the 12z runs. 

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18 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

big increase on 6z eps snow amounts, as it's colder for one thing and it has an ULL pass just like 18z. Also, timing is a bit slower too.

Nice but wonder if the WxBell snowmap is too bullish on the S edge

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4 minutes ago, phillysports11 said:

 It's amazing seeing how one run look like its falling apart and next run BOOM were back in  business. I'll take a couple inches  or even 5! Hopefully runs stay consistent. 

I'd like to see a sounding run have this.   Regardless, UKMET/GGEM are more bullish for NE PA & NW NJ than they were yesterday also.

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Nice but wonder if the WxBell snowmap is too bullish on the S edge

No clue honestly. It’s all driven by the ull. There is def an off run vs main run split here 

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This is ptw indiv members. The mean looks to high imo because I don’t think we get much on the front end like some have. In general though it’s all about the ull 

8431AFF0-B72B-4981-A3CB-4E56E2EF9F05.png

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11 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Nice but wonder if the WxBell snowmap is too bullish on the S edge

Ensembles wont have it, but this is an event one is better off looking at Kuchera (if only Cobb was available) vs a straight 10:1 as the front end is going to have mixed pcpn types where it does non liquid. Back end/ULL no problem either snow or rain.  Even if weatherbell is better than others, sleet/freezing rain is not easily accounted.

 

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Ensembles wont have it, but this is an event one is better off looking at Kuchera (if only Cobb was available) vs a straight 10:1 as the front end is going to have mixed pcpn types where it does non liquid. Back end/ULL no problem either snow or rain.  Even if weatherbell is better than others, sleet/freezing rain is not easily accounted.

 

Yeah, that is my concern. GFS too warm and most snowmaps for other models too bullish on S edge,

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00z 26th EPS 

28 of 51 members with measurable at PHL

13 of 51 members with 2" or more

3 of 51 members with 6" or more

1 of 51 members with 10" or more

 

00z 27th EPS 

35 of 51 members with measurable at PHL

11 of 51 members with 2" or more

3 of 51 members with 6" or more

0 of 51 members with 10" or more

Greatest front end snow 2.7";  There is one pure 6" or more back end; the other two are combos of both.

 

00z 28th EPS

35 of 51 members with measurable at PHL

11 of 51 members with 2" or more

1 of 51 members with 6" or more

0 of 51 members with 10" or more

Greatest front end snow 2.0"

 

00z 26th GEFS

17 of 21 members with measurable

5 of 21 members with 2" or more

1 of 21 members with 6" or more

 

00z GEFS  27th

17 of 21 members with measurable

1 of 21 members with 2" or more

Operational GFS (5.2") snowier than any ensemble member by 3.1".

 

00z GEFS  28th

12 of 21 members with measurable

1 of 21 members with 2" or more

 

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Ensembles wont have it, but this is an event one is better off looking at Kuchera (if only Cobb was available) vs a straight 10:1 as the front end is going to have mixed pcpn types where it does non liquid. Back end/ULL no problem either snow or rain.  Even if weatherbell is better than others, sleet/freezing rain is not easily accounted.

 

Yea I would never forecast this. I just look at it more like how much qpf is expected as frozen vs non frozen. Ratios will be less than 10-1 if this occurs. Coming during the day with marginal temps as well. The front end hits I’m discounting right now because it looks to warm unless there are colder members aloft. This is all about the ULL

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5 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Yeah, that is my concern. GFS too warm and most snowmaps for other models too bullish on S edge,

Maybe a bit too conservative (but then again the EC/EPS is not winning any qpf awards this month anyway), but a snow depth map might a middle of the road expectation.  Again this is eons away and nothing is etched in stone, though latitude I believe will still help.

Last two EPS snow depth maps.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_depth-5374400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_depth-5374400.pngd.png

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One trend that I have notice from 24hrs ago is you're starting to get a bit more of a classic banana high across the top. This is also a direct result of a stronger pna ridge out west which linking with it across the top. This is doing 3 things. It's blocking the primary from going further north, it's giving you a CAD signature, albeit weak. Also will force ULL further south. Prior runs outside 24 hrs ago had this ULL semi phasing in with the 50/50 and tpv low. We need that to stay separate and wan't to continue to build heights across the top as it will continue to force the primary further south and give a colder scenario. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp-5201600 (3).gif

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14 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe a bit too conservative (but then again the EC/EPS is not winning any qpf awards this month anyway), but a snow depth map might a middle of the road expectation.  Again this is eons away and nothing is etched in stone, though latitude I believe will still help.

Last two EPS snow depth map

Good idea to be conservative at this point. I'll take my 1" off the top map and run. 

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fwiw, the eps indiv members that have the higher front end hit also have a stronger banana hgih and CAD situation which is causing a colder start at surface and midlevels. Those members also start coastal development much further south too as it's feeling the effects of the CAD, thus more frozen

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

One trend that I have notice from 24hrs ago is you're starting to get a bit more of a classic banana high across the top. This is also a direct result of a stronger pna ridge out west which linking with it across the top. This is doing 3 things. It's blocking the primary from going further north, it's giving you a CAD signature, albeit weak. Also will force ULL further south. Prior runs outside 24 hrs ago had this ULL semi phasing in with the 50/50 and tpv low. We need that to stay separate and wan't to continue to build heights across the top as it will continue to force the primary further south and give a colder scenario.

Looks icy at the start, N+W

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Just now, Chubbs said:

Looks icy at the start, N+W

yes it does, unless we trend stronger with high across the top I think thats going to be the main issue for front end. 

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@tombo82685 better HP building in over Canada on this run. 
 

mall gonna come down to timing. The earlier it gets its act together, the better for us. 

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This run drives the primary up a little further, so I imagine thermals are warmer initially here...

A38E725C-F87B-4389-B7FF-B7C0C6A0AFC0.gif

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