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Rainshadow

Meteorological Winter Pattern Discussion, A December That Is December Or A Nino November?

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5 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

I mean... it wouldn’t be the worst thing. Yea, it screws the pooch for the 18th. But the associated wave break it produces helps a lot downstream with the NAO and the Scandinavian ridging process. Would help speed things up. 

true, but just talking for the 18th, I'm selling on that look IMO

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Below is every other day from last nights EPS. A high amplitude blocky pattern with AO-/NAO-. Per the day 10 EPS, looks like we will get a reload torch period as cold air shifts from North America to Siberia. Looks bad, but could be good, if Oshkosh Sea low is re-invigorated leading to another round of EPO ridging and strat disturbance. In any case the AO-/NAO- regime seems to have legs.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_fh24-240.gif

 

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23 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Below is every other day from last nights EPS. A high amplitude blocky pattern with AO-/NAO-. Per the day 10 EPS, looks like we will get a reload torch period as cold air shifts from North America to Siberia. Looks bad, but could be good, if Oshkosh Sea low is re-invigorated leading to another round of EPO ridging and strat disturbance. In any case the AO-/NAO- regime seems to have legs.

 

 

 

We go from this at day 10

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-6886400.png.4d82cc69c9415cfc18e51de9bce36425.png

to this at day 15,  some -nao/-ao action. Pacific look starts shifting around

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7318400.png

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Whole loop from day 10 to 15. Can see with the -nao the east kind of gets spared the worst of pac flow as the -nao is keeping below normal hgts close by. It's not a cold look, just not a torch one and one that could offer chances 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1576022400-1576886400-1577318400-10.gif

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1576022400-1576886400-1577318400-10.gif

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either way you look at it, it's a win. If eps are right, we have winter storm to track. If the GEFS are right and we phase the storm with tpv, sure we rain, but Gigi gets Barney in a consolation prize. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6735200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6756800.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

either way you look at it, it's a win. If eps are right, we have winter storm to track. If the GEFS are right and we phase the storm with tpv, sure we rain, but Gigi gets Barney in a consolation prize. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6735200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-6756800.png

I don't know if I can survive the GFS's Barney for tomorrow to see that one.  You might have to thaw me out of my cryogenically frozen state.

 

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I don't know if I can survive the GFS's Barney for tomorrow to see that one.  You might have to thaw me out of my cryogenically frozen state.

 

Can't do that, you have a poker game to run

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00z Monday run

GEFS:  Below Normal 850 temp anomalies arrive on the 11th and leave on the 13th, above normal 850mb anomalies on 14th & 15th and then struggle to hang on thru the 17th (two days longer), then below normal anomalies back on the 17th last into the 23rd (a net gain of two days), then above normal anomalies for Christmas Eve when the run ends.

GEPS: Same as GEFS through December 17th, except for a chillier 15th.  New below normal anomalies on the 17th thru the 19th  Then above to near normal 850mb anomalies thru the end of its run on Christmas Eve. 

EPS:  Similar to both through December 17th.  Arrival of below normal 850mb temp anomalies a day later on the 18th becoming a one day wonder. Then above normal 850mb temp anomalies on the 18th thru the end of its run on the 23rd. + EPO / -PNA / +NAO

MV site has a weaker MJO still getting to warmer phases 3 & 4.  This morning's NAEFS 12/17-12/24 continue high confidence of near normal temperatures.      NASA & EC progs thru 10 days:  Wave 1 amplitude is forecast to continue subsiding;  wave 2 intensity continues to be outlooked to increase.  On day 10 for the first time since Mid November its amplitude is outlooked to be stronger than wave 1. 

 

00z Wednesday run

GEFS:  After a shell of Barney, above normal 850mb anomalies arrive on the 13th (day earlier). below normal anomalies on 15th into 16th preceding Tombosystem and above normal 16th into 17th, then pretty much non stop below normal 850mb anomalies back on the 18th thru Christmas Day (a net gain of two days), then near normal on Boxing Day.

Leaving Neptune and going to Venus:

GEPS: Above normal 850mb temp anomalies after shell of barney December 13th thru 15th. Below normal 850mb temp anomalies on 15th then struggle to get above on the 16th & 17th  Below normal anomalies on the 18th thru the 20th (a day later, no net gain). Then above normal 850mb temp anomalies thru the end of its run on Boxing Day. 

Leaving Venus and going back to Planet Earth

EPS:  Similar to GEPS thru the 15th.  Above normal 850mb temp anomalies later on the 16th into the 17th.  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies on the 18th thru the 20th (two days longer). Then above normal 850mb temp anomalies on the 20th thru the end of its run on Christmas Day (Yes a two day can kick, two days later for this).

Kind of a not far from neutral + EPO / -PNA / -NAO look at the end.  Colder than two days ago.

 

MV site has a weaker MJO borderline  phase 2,3 in warmer phases 3 next week & phase 4 Christmas week.  Right now there really is not much convection in the Indian Ocean, so it may be a moot point; have to see if it gets more invigorated going forward.  This morning's NAEFS 12/19-12/26 continue high confidence of near normal temperatures.  GEFS & GEPS canceling each other out.     NASA & EC progs thru 10 days:  Wave 1 amplitude is forecast to continue falling;  strongest wave 2 of this season outlooked to reach early December 2018 intensity on the 21st.  That week averaged -7F in PHL.

So there is a mode conflict between the ensembles and the outlooked wave 2 hit for Christmas week.  A colder trend in the ensembles would have higher confidence than average for la la land.

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-nao helping to keep below normal hgts close to the east coast in the 5 day mean while the pacific looks like vomit

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-7361600.png

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looks like eps starting to jump onto a possible Barney shot right after next weeks storm. Thats a direct discharge from the arctic

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6735200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-6670400.png

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Just amazing how in this pattern and thanks to now blocking over Greenland the east refuses to go into any prolonged warm pattern. Just keeps getting beaten back

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also something to note, this barney threat has some legs with the strat too. Wave 2 amplitude increases right around time of Barney possibilities 

 

ens_nh-hgtwaves_010hPa_20191211.png

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Let’s see if this has some legs. Some subsidence entering the IOD region , and that standing wave becoming not so standing.(that’s a scientific term 😂). 
 

weak signal for now, but it would be a positive going forward. Get some forcings back into the west Pac, which would improve and stabilize a -EPO pattern. We’ll revisit this beginning of next week to see how it looks. 

A02481EC-9200-4E4A-911E-BE534C1B11F0.png
 

just to add what we’re looking at. Subsidence is the orange in the bottom left. Lift (blue) into the 120-140 region. We want that big blue/purple blob over 60E to dissipate/weaken. 564662D3-CF8F-488A-A565-5491E97EB7D4.jpeg.7b2d04a04375a041080f940448b7a9c4.jpeg

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33 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Let’s see if this has some legs. Some subsidence entering the IOD region , and that standing wave becoming not so standing.(that’s a scientific term 😂). 
 

weak signal for now, but it would be a positive going forward. Get some forcings back into the west Pac, which would improve and stabilize a -EPO pattern. We’ll revisit this beginning of next week to see how it looks. 


 

just to add what we’re looking at. Subsidence is the orange in the bottom left. Lift (blue) into the 120-140 region. We want that big blue/purple blob over 60E to dissipate/weaken. 

Yea there looks to may be finally a legit mjo wave try to emerge around end of dec in phase 5/6, which is warm for us but would most likely go into colder phases

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it's like who do you root for. One is to warm, one is to cold

ELk0HivX0AAEAvS.png

ELk0Hi1X0AAEe_z.png

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

it's like who do you root for. One is to warm, one is to cold

ELk0HivX0AAEAvS.png

ELk0Hi1X0AAEe_z.png

The GFS cold bias is atrocious. I feel bad for the developers of the latest version because something went awry.

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2 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

The GFS cold bias is atrocious. I feel bad for the developers of the latest version because something went awry.

That’s the gefs they haven’t been upgraded yet. But gfs does have a bad cold bias. Gefs cold bias is almost as bad as eps warm bias

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Any early indications for the week between Christmas and New Years? Trying to plan a vacation north vs. south. Won't go north if cold and snow chances look below average.

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out in weenie land, but thats getting close to a split at 10mb of pv. If we had a stronger wave 2 hit, might get it done. But you can see the 2 daughter pv's 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-6972800.png.903db492c6e3e24da8e0533fc13208bd.png

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

looks like eps starting to jump onto a possible Barney shot right after next weeks storm. Thats a direct discharge from the arctic

Barney on roids, see if he makes an appearance, one time Barney today actually turned out to be a teletubby

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png.78ad159ee30526e5c6063fac9a0143e1.png

 

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