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Rainshadow

GFS Verification Of Barney I & Barney II

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Here is a running table of the GFS's lowest predicted thickness as well as max temps.  Word of caution about 11/8, that is an afternoon max temp. The daytime max temp may occur at midnight.  If one takes away those (I dont know what to say) non sounding runs, the model has been pretty consistent.  Rather high thicknesses for such low maxes, mainly because the cold air is more shallow and concentrated below 850mb.  The GFS can overdo this, although the Euro is also close. BTW prior to Halloween, there were not many runs that had it this cold as the GFS was (knock me over with a feather) too progressive/zonal with the cold air.

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The record low maximum temperature for PHL for 11/8 is 41F set in 1927 and for 11/9 it is 40F set in 1976.  That was one brutally cold Oct-Jan. 

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I am going to keep the same format for Barney II.  I thought about min temps, but that will be more variable than max temps pending snow cover, sky coverage and winds.  There is not going to be snow coverage (barring something very strange) with Barney I for mins, so I decided to keep it a max comparison.

I tried to start about the same forecast point in the future. Well time will tell, but just to put some historical perspective on consecutive days with max temps less than 32F.  The current November record is 2 days set in 1891 and 1880.  The two coldest months of November only had 1 and coincidentally they both were on November 30th.  November 4th GFS started consistently forecasting sub 520 thicknesses, although lowest thick forecast goes to 00z run on the 3rd: 503.

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Record low max temps 40F on 11/12,  35F on 11/13 & 11/14 & 11/15, 31F on 11/16 & 34F on 11/17.  

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Barney I in the books.  GFS 2m temp forecasts were very good inside of 96 hours.  OTOH, there was only one run out of 35 runs that came in with a too warm a predicted 2m max temp.  Contrast that with summer...

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