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tombo82685

Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond)

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

ukie is interesting for upcoming storm. Snow threat in Poconos/interior northeast

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GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

That is quite the bullish run. Interesting because it had been dr. poo poo with the last two threats. This is a dosey doe with the other models.

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Euro op has closed low barreling across the country late next week.  Hard for it to gain latitude given blockiness downstream and resulting confluence.  So much for euro hanging energy in the SW too long, this puppy is hauling.  Definitely potential if it plays out somewhat like this

ecmwf_z500a_atl_fh168-240.gif.140f97172ca183ec0f563bd6ba7ebda7.gif

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if we can pop a -nao and have a decent looking pacific that can transport a legit airmass instead of pac puke, next weekend has a bit of a chance. If we don't get the pacific help, I don't see much in the next 15 days. 

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On 11/13/2019 at 6:25 PM, tombo82685 said:

EPS are starting to show some potential next weekend for something. Would like to give it a few runs since that was some big changes at h5 this run, but if that is correct expect frozen precip chances to start going up

This is how you can possibly get it done for something next weekend. GFS illustrates how it can work

So first off, we have an expansive block across the top. We can see the low heights into Alaska which is bringing in pac puke underneath the block. We have a split flow out west with a big closed low sitting off the Baja. Downstream this will try and pop a se ridge ahead of any shortwave ejecting out. Underneath the block and north of the great lakes we have a legit, albeit brief, cold airmass that originates from the nw territories. So there is our fresh cold airmass. We then have a strong piece of energy that came off the big closed low off the baja, this piece of energy is over new mexico. We also have a large 50/50 low that is helping to suppress height rises from the diggign energy in the southwest and off the baja

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4413200.png.fc44282b9d7d789b8c69e3e477b6280e.png

Next time period, we still have our alaskan trough which is bringing the pac puke in. We have are expansive block across the top holding in 50/50 lows. We still have out closed low trough sitting off baja trying to initiate a se ridge. The brief cold shot from the nw territories is swinging through the northeast with a good cold airmass. This is helping to fight off any height rises trying to occur in response to the strong piece of energy in the sourthern plains. You can see if the -nao wasn't there this storm would be a cutter all the way as the heights out ahead of this want to rise. The closed low swinging acrss the northeast is supressing the heights along the east coast and that will act as our new 50/50 low caught under the block. We also have a decent ridge spike along the west coast. It's not in a good spot  for a snow track as it would argue for a storm to cut. With the 50/50 low caught underneath the block it will force the low to the south of it and not allow it to cut to the north. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4478000.png.4e4c704702a1111c47bde56bd85f6e2f.png

We can see the main players now, block across the top. Big 50/50 low caught underneath the block suppressing heights preventing the low ejecting out of the southern plains from cutting to the lakes. Key is timing the energy ejecting out with the low swinging through the lakes. Closer together they are, better chance the storm ejecting out stays underneath us. If the 50/50 low gets way out ahead of this, we will lose our cold airmass as pac puke is waiting to eject in. It will also give a pathway for the low ejecting out of the plains to come west too. 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-4553600.png.691f3cc54f92b8d56f4b784cf339d712.png

 

In general, it's a period of interest. Chances aren't great right now, but it's not a 0%. If we had a more expansive area of cold and not pac puke waiting to eject in, I would be a bit more optimistic. The chance is there, and this is how you can get it done. 

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18z gfs is for the weenies.  That closed low ejecting out of the SW phases with a northern disturbance and dumps some snow.  Still an outlier but potential still in place with the -NAO blocking the flow

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Man, if this was about 3 weeks later, we would be sounding the alarms... the constant CWB’s (cyclonic wave breaks)over the Atlantic Canadian maritimes is pretty awesome. Constant 50/50 lows reinforcing the NAO Block. That’s a special pattern...

 

Reason on why I say 3 weeks later is just normal climo for the coastal plain. Not getting my hopes up. But that 24TH threat has some support on the ensembles. Long ways to go. But big time miller A on that 18z run. 

95520D3C-94C0-4B9F-BC44-F0E201F7B92B.gif

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29 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Man, if this was about 3 weeks later, we would be sounding the alarms... the constant CWB’s (cyclonic wave breaks)over the Atlantic Canadian maritimes is pretty awesome. Constant 50/50 lows reinforcing the NAO Block. That’s a special pattern...

 

Reason on why I say 3 weeks later is just normal climo for the coastal plain. Not getting my hopes up. But that 24TH threat has some support on the ensembles. Long ways to go. But big time miller A on that 18z run. 

95520D3C-94C0-4B9F-BC44-F0E201F7B92B.gif

Hard not to subdue expectations given climo...some of us probably dont want a storm this early given fear of jinxing real winter.  So the board remains gun shy until a euro d5 solution hits us head on.

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9 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

Man, if this was about 3 weeks later, we would be sounding the alarms... the constant CWB’s (cyclonic wave breaks)over the Atlantic Canadian maritimes is pretty awesome. Constant 50/50 lows reinforcing the NAO Block. That’s a special pattern...

 

Reason on why I say 3 weeks later is just normal climo for the coastal plain. Not getting my hopes up. But that 24TH threat has some support on the ensembles. Long ways to go. But big time miller A on that 18z run.

Yup too bad its November, classic Mid-Atlantic snow  pattern on D8 GEFS with 50/50 and Tenn Valley wave. A solid storm pattern in general with split flow and strong waves in both branches.

gef192.gif

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Here are some of the 06 gefs individuals. A narrow window balancing strength of storm/cold air push and timing.

gef180.gif

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Here are some of the 06 gefs individuals. A narrow window balancing strength of storm/cold air push and timing.

gef180.gif

Is this from a paid or free site?

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26 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Is this from a paid or free site?

an old freebie - psu-ewall

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18 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Yup too bad its November, classic Mid-Atlantic snow  pattern on D8 GEFS with 50/50 and Tenn Valley wave. A solid storm pattern in general with split flow and strong waves in both branches.

 

If this were jan or feb I agree. This time of year into probably most of dec just not going to cut it. Good pattern for the elevated interior though

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I love living in "LA LA Land"...      

IF we can generate enough snow on Thanksgiving Day then I there will be plenty of leftovers for me.:bop:

 

image.png.4b1b048f6ed57470921d067b8ed43922.png

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12z CMC is close for the narrow 6-7-day window. Ukie/gfs with weaker versions.

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png

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Still an outside shot at some frozen early next week...interaction of northern/southern stream will take a few days to solidify.  Closed SW low ejects and opens up.  Need to walk the line between not too close from departing weekend storm, which provides some cold air, as it will shred it and go OTS, and not too far otherwise it will pump heights up ahead of it and warm the boundary layer.  If northern energy partially phases into southern, it should help it gain some latitude, and if still under the influence of the previous storms departing flow, maybe we get some snow or ice to start.  

In reality, this may be way too many words for a complete non-event, but not much else to perk up about

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Ukie hits the area with snow, although I didn't see temps through the column, not sure if it's counting mix as snow.  Euro forms a nice little storm on the tailing boundary of the departing weekend storm, hits the northern tier w/ frozen, CMC is 1/2 a day more progressive and a miss south.....worth keeping an eye on

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4 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Ukie hits the area with snow, although I didn't see temps through the column, not sure if it's counting mix as snow.  Euro forms a nice little storm on the tailing boundary of the departing weekend storm, hits the northern tier w/ frozen, CMC is 1/2 a day more progressive and a miss south.....worth keeping an eye on

There are a few eps members with some snow into parts of the area. 

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

There are a few eps members with some snow into parts of the area. 

The idea of a clean CFP is pretty much gone with all models having a significant wave (One can see how this would work well in January/February).  Better to be Mitch this weekend.  Half of the GEFS members have measurable snow at PHL, but until the EPS gets more bullish, this looks more like a cold November rain locally.

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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The idea of a clean CFP is pretty much gone with all models having a significant wave (One can see how this would work well in January/February).  Better to be Mitch this weekend.  Half of the GEFS members have measurable snow at PHL, but until the EPS gets more bullish, this looks more like a cold November rain locally.

Pacific garbage airmass ftw. I’m selling 

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All the models outside of euro (still to come) have a really nice low track. We just have 0 cold to work with unless the storm trends stronger and can pull cold air in. Then you worry about it shifting nw 

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

All the models outside of euro (still to come) have a really nice low track. We just have 0 cold to work with unless the storm trends stronger and can pull cold air in. Then you worry about it shifting nw 

12z Euro has a closed h5 low, mid levels are warm but dews start low, so with wet bulbing sleet is possible.  Storm redevelops from WV to off the coast, so that might shut precip down up north.  Euro has a nice band of snow in new england as storm ramps up.

ecmwf_z500a_eus_6.png

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9 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

12z Euro has a closed h5 low, mid levels are warm but dews start low, so with wet bulbing sleet is possible.  Storm redevelops from WV to off the coast, so that might shut precip down up north.  Euro has a nice band of snow in new england as storm ramps up.

ecmwf_z500a_eus_6.png

Problem is the primary low goes into PA. That’s where all the warmth gets pulled in from. You need that to die quicker but also stronger storm to bring cold air into system. Curious to see if eps show any hits 

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Man that is one helluva Midwest Blizzard Day 7-8. Kind of a weird pattern. The Atlantic seems decent, but the Pacific & PNA pattern is garbage and all the real cold air seems locked up over there. 

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Eps are pretty meh. Flatter look so system isn’t able to bring cold air into system. So just a very cold rain

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21 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

Man that is one helluva Midwest Blizzard Day 7-8. Kind of a weird pattern. The Atlantic seems decent, but the Pacific & PNA pattern is garbage and all the real cold air seems locked up over there. 

That’s because the pacific matters way more than the Atlantic even though we have blocking. 

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