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tombo82685

Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond)

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The whole TPV orientation and where it enters the US really hurt this from what it originally looked like. While we still have our wave of low pressure riding up the front because of the shift west of the tpv it brings in se ridging and warms the BL and keeps the storm track west.  That change started to occur 2 days ago when the ukmet jumped on it. 

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9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

The whole TPV orientation and where it enters the US really hurt this from what it originally looked like. While we still have our wave of low pressure riding up the front because of the shift west of the tpv it brings in se ridging and warms the BL and keeps the storm track west.  That change started to occur 2 days ago when the ukmet jumped on it. 

If it's any solace Gigi's figs are still getting mauled by Barney II

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1 minute ago, susqushawn said:

If it's any solace Gigi's figs are still getting mauled by Barney II

That does help a lot 

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After these last 2 “events” (well, 1 pending), gonna only have to believe models showing events from inside 84 hours...😂

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21 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

After these last 2 “events” (well, 1 pending), gonna only have to believe models showing events from inside 84 hours...😂

Both were no where near lock down mode and never made it inside 4 days so hopefully no one took it to heart. Still was nice to have something to track for a little while 

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Both were no where near lock down mode and never made it inside 4 days so hopefully no one took it to heart. Still was nice to have something to track for a little while 

N trend on these first 2 events. Something to monitor going forward.

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1 minute ago, Chubbs said:

N trend on these first 2 events. Something to monitor going forward.

North trends in November & December are almost a natural occurrence.  What is more disconcerting is the weaker performance overall of models vs last year at this time.  I know this is NYC centric (I wanted to show these maps to Nick Stefano), but it took even the Euro until about 72-84hrs before to get a clue.

 

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

After these last 2 “events” (well, 1 pending), gonna only have to believe models showing events from inside 84 hours...😂

What else is new?

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35 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

North trends in November & December are almost a natural occurrence.  What is more disconcerting is the weaker performance overall of models vs last year at this time.  I know this is NYC centric (I wanted to show these maps to Nick Stefano), but it took even the Euro until about 72-84hrs before to get a clue.

Yikes.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Both were no where near lock down mode and never made it inside 4 days so hopefully no one took it to heart. Still was nice to have something to track for a little while 

We saw the same issues last year as well. Lots of fluctuation in the medium range with guidance. Should take a bit more cautious approach this year, and not live and die by each run. 

For the record, this board is usually pretty tame for the most part. Just noting the volatility in guidance. 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

North trends in November & December are almost a natural occurrence.  What is more disconcerting is the weaker performance overall of models vs last year at this time.  I know this is NYC centric (I wanted to show these maps to Nick Stefano), but it took even the Euro until about 72-84hrs before to get a clue.

Nov+Dec trends make sense with SST lag. Have to curb our enthusiasm till we see model snow in the southeast.

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3 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Nov+Dec trends make sense with SST lag. Have to curb our enthusiasm till we see model snow in the southeast.

Or with the GFS model snow in Puerto Rico.  Apparently it looks like Gulf Coast snow is not far enough south.

gfs_asnow_us_29.png.297b7f26cdd90a00b7253782c74d165a.png

gfs_asnow_us_20.png.74a4d36143c8bf0a3e11bca3dfb7a8a1.png

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

We saw the same issues last year as well. Lots of fluctuation in the medium range with guidance. Should take a bit more cautious approach this year, and not live and die by each run. 

For the record, this board is usually pretty tame for the most part. Just noting the volatility in guidance. 

Yea, thats why I made it that any snow threat from day 5 out stays in long range thread because of model variability. In all seriousness the shifts ares till within realm of possibilities at day 5 plus. Now if we saw this at day 2, then yea. 

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea, thats why I made it that any snow threat from day 5 out stays in long range thread because of model variability. In all seriousness the shifts ares till within realm of possibilities at day 5 plus. Now if we saw this at day 2, then yea. 

The difference though IMO is you obviously cant take a model in the +5 day range at face value, but I have learned since I started this hobby that regardless if the specifics are right the models tend to give you a sense of a time frame where a certain shortwave has the space to deliver. Like from 9-10 days out I assumed there was a chance with this event. 

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Just when I was going to post that the UKMET had been west of us all along.  Dr. Solomon went east with the day run.   Its boundary layer temps are predicted to remain above freezing outside of Poconos/NW NJ while it is precipitating.  It does bring something like a 1017 into PA which helps warm the boundary, so that 96hr position looks like another predicted wave on the front.  This is good for Mitch?PaWxNut more work needed to the southeast.

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GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif.900af2f1561a38b26c0b03f9146075a9.gif

 

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Just when I was going to post that the UKMET had been west of us all along.  Dr. Solomon went east with the day run.   Its boundary layer temps are predicted to remain above freezing outside of Poconos/NW NJ while it is precipitating.  It does bring something like a 1017 into PA which helps warm the boundary, so that 96hr position looks like another predicted wave on the front.  This is good for Mitch?PaWxNut more work needed to the southeast.

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GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif.900af2f1561a38b26c0b03f9146075a9.gif

 

This is too far northwest on average now with the modeling. The UK is off to a good start this cooler season. Too bad no one else uses it here. Where did you get that UK precip map? 

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34 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

This is too far northwest on average now with the modeling. The UK is off to a good start this cooler season. Too bad no one else uses it here. Where did you get that UK precip map? 

Weather.us has ukmet pcpn maps.   That map posted (ukmet is sometimes missing) is from https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

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