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tombo82685

Winter storm threats (day 5 and beyond)

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Haven’t looked to close at this but it’s. Or a bad setup as long as it remains on progressive side. If cold digs south a ton it’s wagons north 

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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Closer in look at euro 

2D6DB0E4-AF19-4F62-A3FE-0337BBB230E9.png

After seeing how much the Euro has botched events up during October (not alone) and the GFS is more interested in forecasting for Neptune than Earth, from a following perspective, something is going to remain there (there have been ensemble members with snow for a couple of days); for a general decent idea of the 500mb pattern, it's Monday at the earliest.  

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There was a bit of an uptick in the eps for snowfall, but still rather meh south of poconos. Mitch and sne looking good this far out for first possible snow of the year. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-total_snow_10to1-3344000.png

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The control was among the snowiest last night for PHL.  OP EC not in sync with ensemble mean for last night's run. GEFS mean also holding around 7 of 21 with measurable snow for PHL.     Total number of  EPS members with measurable snow for PHL was 18 of 51 vs 12 of 51 on yesterday's day run.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_240hr-3603200.png.9e5a9841837ea6f48ca5f484afc59215.png

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19 minutes ago, Qtown Snow said:

Need work for this one

Good chance the gfs gives us "fake" snow at some point in the next day or two.

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More interesting for you all now. I still expect this to come back north a bit. EPS did shift south overall but the big hitters are in my area thus the mean is higher further north.  

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12 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

More interesting for you all now. I still expect this to come back north a bit. EPS did shift south overall but the big hitters are in my area thus the mean is higher further north.  

I didn't look at BGM per se (vs places between us) being in the bullsye, it looked like the 06z EPS went back to almost exclusively a northwest of PHL clustering, premise of wave induced rain changing to snow before ending.   I am being totally diplomatic, I have zero confidence in any GFS pcpn solution outside of 84 hours and thermal solution outside of 6 days. 

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I would toss the gfs so far it may land on Gigi's doorstep. GFS scream again of just to progressive and blasting cold everywhere crushing the wave. 

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Good chance the gfs gives us "fake" snow at some point in the next day or two.

You'll have to settle for fake North Carolina snow on this run.

The 12z UKMET doesn't look that sexy, but then again the magic window of some model semblance when it comes to precipitation location skill lately has been inside of 90 hours.

 

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24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You'll have to settle for fake North Carolina snow on this run.

The 12z UKMET doesn't look that sexy, but then again the magic window of some model semblance when it comes to precipitation location skill lately has been inside of 90 hours.

 

Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. 

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13 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. 

Well you have two models gung ho and two models meh.  So we have the EC to decide.  Then we can do it all over again in 6 hours.

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43 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well you have two models gung ho and two models meh.  So we have the EC to decide.  Then we can do it all over again in 6 hours.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mitchg said:

Yup, couldn't tell much on UK. CMC got a little too excited. 

The EC is closer to the CMC than the UKMET.  Most of the GFS ensemble members are closer in line with the EC than its own let's make a model with a more progressive bias even more progressive.  Anyway Charlie's "fake" snow GFS run is probably a run or two away from happening.  FWIW (a little bit, but not much) the heaviest predicted snow swath is across the northern Poconos into the Mid Hudson Valley. 

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3 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

EURO looks like a happy medium as expected. Not sure about thermals though, its a bit faster than GFS as well. 

It is a toned down version from yesterday's day run.  PHL Intl no measurable.  Some light accums in NW burbs, best toward Andy, then 2-5" for NW NJ/Lehigh Valley/Poconos.   

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I don't have precip but that's a cold air mass with a weak low in a good spot in lala land...awesome cold 12z euro run

ecmwf_T850_eus_10.png

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27 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

I don't have precip but that's a cold air mass with a weak low in a good spot in lala land...awesome cold 12z euro run

ecmwf_T850_eus_10.png

Looks like 4-8 on euro 

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17 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like 4-8 on euro 

Funny if the winter golf forecast was snowed out.

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14 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Funny if the winter golf forecast was snowed out.

Day 9 & Euro,  purrrrrrrrrrrrfect together.   Two things it got going for it:  Monmouth County has the bullseye and VAY > Gilly.

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11 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Day 9 & Euro,  purrrrrrrrrrrrfect together.   Two things it got going for it:  Monmouth County has the bullseye and VAY > Gilly.

CAn you please stop that

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Ensemble wise there are comparable number of members that have measurable for both systems for PHL (about 14 or 15 out of 51).  The control had no measurable for the first event and about 3 inches with day 9 number 9 number 9.

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Funny if the winter golf forecast was snowed out.

Do you remember last year when the Euro had the November snow when we were golfing, what forecast day it was?

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