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Rainshadow

First Test Of Snow (In Illinois)

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I know this is not within our area and also there is the warm ground issue with a 10:1 ratio on these maps.  But it's worth looking how good or bad the models are with this one in Illinois and Iowa.  The little map is the Euro.  Its Kuchera was slightly snowier.

index.gif.73585c5f886c71809a0d9ee85b8a8439.gif

1.png.c0ea772077a16c43728200f0a73effc4.pnggem_asnow_us_15.png.b300e6c9eaf89e53a40a3129f04fe37c.pngicon_asnow_us_29.png.192be7bf0803c509f60aabd8af44d4a1.png112.JPG.2508570fa6da9f5903d2701926d24241.JPG

 

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This is the whole event for older GFS versions that included Iowa and Wisconsin.  Looks like 4-6" tops. (3-4" more widespread).

1.JPG.250ea320361adc974b3376d0bbe213bc.JPG

 

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23 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I know this is not within our area and also there is the warm ground issue with a 10:1 ratio on these maps.  But it's worth looking how good or bad the models are with this one in Illinois and Iowa.  The little map is the Euro.  Its Kuchera was slightly snowier.

index.gif.73585c5f886c71809a0d9ee85b8a8439.gif

1.png.c0ea772077a16c43728200f0a73effc4.pnggem_asnow_us_15.png.b300e6c9eaf89e53a40a3129f04fe37c.pngicon_asnow_us_29.png.192be7bf0803c509f60aabd8af44d4a1.png112.JPG.2508570fa6da9f5903d2701926d24241.JPG

 

Still snowing in Illinois this morning.

1.JPG.b7d45af5c673b1440155a2b35463fd73.JPG

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Can't wait until we start seeing these maps over our area, though I hope the models don't overdo it all winter. We all know that you can't put the genie back inside of the bottle once people start posting the highest output for their backyard from a model on social media.

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Just now, greg ralls said:

Can't wait until we start seeing these maps over our area, though I hope the models don't overdo it all winter. We all know that you can't put the genie back inside of the bottle once people start posting the highest output for their backyard from a model on social media.

You mean like Weatherboy did for today when there was a GFS run that had it snowing.  (I am not kidding).

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

You mean like Weatherboy did for today when there was a GFS run that had it snowing.  (I am not kidding).

You mean you didn't believe Weatherboy?? C'mon now, its the GFS we are talking about. :ohmy:

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4 hours ago, cbelke said:

You mean you didn't believe Weatherboy?? C'mon now, its the GFS we are talking about. :ohmy:

It was the 360hr forecast, if It was the 324hr I would have been all over it.

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On 10/30/2019 at 9:29 AM, Rainshadow said:

I know this is not within our area and also there is the warm ground issue with a 10:1 ratio on these maps.  But it's worth looking how good or bad the models are with this one in Illinois and Iowa.  The little map is the Euro.  Its Kuchera was slightly snowier.

index.gif.73585c5f886c71809a0d9ee85b8a8439.gif

1.png.c0ea772077a16c43728200f0a73effc4.pnggem_asnow_us_15.png.b300e6c9eaf89e53a40a3129f04fe37c.pngicon_asnow_us_29.png.192be7bf0803c509f60aabd8af44d4a1.png112.JPG.2508570fa6da9f5903d2701926d24241.JPG

 

Overall not bad. This was the final run before the snow started in Illinois.  Not sure other than following the GFS how it did prior.  There were some 8-10" within that predicted stripe.  Nothing new that the ICON weas too low and in general the geographic area of 6" or more too much. 

1.JPG.cf837d67257bdbea44c6f40f82d46fcc.JPG

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