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Rainshadow5.8

2019-20 Cold Season Model QPF/Snowfall Fcstg Performance. March 28th Event. A Dry Modeling Bias Event With The GEFS Coming In First & SREF In Last.

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Lol, give the NAM a coastal low and watch it shoot itself in the foot.  Nothing to see hear another last place finish.  For the second event in a row the suddenly even keeled SREF came in first.  This is one example where another model might have done better let's say at Chris's house than at PHL.  The pcpn distribution was more variable than usual.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Lol, give the NAM a coastal low and watch it shoot itself in the foot.  Nothing to see hear another last place finish.  For the second event in a row the suddenly even keeled SREF came in first.  This is one example where another model might have done better let's say at Chris's house than at PHL.  The pcpn distribution was more variable than usual.

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FWIW, those precip totals in that map are like 3 times higher than what actually fell. Thinking bright banding caused that 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

FWIW, those precip totals in that map are like 3 times higher than what actually fell. Thinking bright banding caused that 

2nd event in a row that happened. PHL was one category too high, I guess the rest were too.

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On 3/18/2020 at 12:02 PM, tombo82685 said:

 

We can start Monday's event with the 00z run this morning (21st).  The NAM site I use has snow for PHL, so include snow if any.

 

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I was waiting for the CFP to clear. I guess the NAM has one wheelhouse.  If a low pressure system moves thru the Saint Lawrence Valley, it has a chance to be the most accurate model.  In this case out of the six, it did come in first place.  You can't keep a good WEFS down, by being the wettest, it came in last.

 

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euro

3/21 0z: 1

3/21 12z: 1.5

3/22 0z: 1.2

3/22 12z: .63

3/23 0z: 1.1

eps

3/21 0z: .92 snow .2

3/21 12z: 1.09 snow .1

3/22 0z: 1.19 snow .1

3/22 12z: .91snow .1

3/23 0z: .85 snow .1

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/21 0z: 1

3/21 12z: 1.5

eps

3/21 0z: .92 snow .2

3/21 12z: 1.09 snow .1

Barring something weird, we are going to surpass our views from last season.  I thank everyone especially given there was no snow to really evaluate.

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On 3/21/2020 at 6:00 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/21 0z: 1

3/21 12z: 1.5

3/22 0z: 1.2

eps

3/21 0z: .92 snow .2

3/21 12z: 1.09 snow .1

3/22 0z: 1.19 snow .1

3/23 00z can be the last run for this event and the first run for the Wednesday event.

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euro

3/23 0z: 1

3/23 12z: .4

3/24 0z: .4

3/24 12z: .47

3/25 0z: .21

eps

3/23 0z: .66

3/23 12z: .51

3/24 0z: .48

3/24 12z: .52

3/25 0z: .27

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On 3/23/2020 at 5:59 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

3/23 0z: 1

3/23 12z: .4

eps

3/23 0z: .66

3/23 12z: .51

I guess we have (or I have) all these events to distract us (me) from other worldly events.  Anyway there is a Friday system (TU GFS) that can be started with the 12z today (24th).   You can make the 00z run tonight (00z/25th) the last one for Wednesday's rain. 

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Well, this low definitely was not in the NAM's wheelhouse and it crashed and burned.  This is if anything the NAM's Achilles Heel (coastal Carolina lows).  Last place on qpf and last place on snow (yes it was forecasting snow for PHL).  In a strange new world, the SREF came in first on qpf and any model not called the NAM did much better with the non snow at PHL.

 

 

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euro

3/24 12z: .03

3/25 0z: .02

3/25 12z: .06

3/26 0z: 0

3/26 12Z: .02

3/27 0z: .02

eps

3/24 12z: .08

3/25 0z: .12

3/25 12z: .1

3/26 0z: .03

3/26 12Z: .03

3/27 0z: .05

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gfs owned the euro on this event. Bent it over and made it say uncle

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs owned the euro on this event. Bent it over and made it say uncle

I heard it even got the ptype right in State College.

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs owned the euro on this event. Bent it over and made it say uncle

BTW the Saturday event can start with this early morning's 00z (26th) run.  Looks like we can go thru 00z/27th with Friday's one.

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euro

3/26 0z: .63

3/26 12Z: .69

3/27 0z: .87

3/27 12z: .69

3/28 0z:  .6

eps

3/26 0z: .58

3/26 12Z: .54

3/27 0z: .66

3/27 12z: .58

3/28 0z: .68

 

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As Tom said, the GFS as much as any model schooled the others.  I couldn't get an 18z time stamp on the 25th for the Euro, but this was the difference between the GFS, GGEM & cough NAM.  The SREF because the ARW(s) decided to go wild this time saved the NAM from a last place finish.

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and gfs poo'd the bed with this morning's system. Sun is back to rising in the east

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Well for anything the GFS does poorly, the WEFS says hold my beer.  The WEFS came in last place with this morning's "event" and the OP Euro came in first.  Because the low was in a better C place (Canada) vs a not so good C place (Carolina coast), the NAM was competitive.

 

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On 3/27/2020 at 6:12 AM, tombo82685 said:

and gfs poo'd the bed with this morning's system. Sun is back to rising in the east

I have seen only <.05" from the GFS/GEFS for tomorrow, so I am guessing we are safe?  I have to still do Saturday's.

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I have seen only <.05" from the GFS/GEFS for tomorrow, so I am guessing we are safe?  I have to still do Saturday's.

likewise, right now on eps best chance of .1+ is sunday/mon timeframe

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

likewise, right now on eps best chance of .1+ is sunday/mon timeframe

Okay.  We get a break.  I am about to post weekend system.

 

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This one was more of a case of a misplaced axis.  But it is what it is.  This is only the second time this cold season that a QPF event ended up being wetter than the GEFS Mean and the GEFS Mean won!  Last time was 12/16/19 (I included table).  This was also the first time that the models were all too dry since January 25th.  I can't go back and look at the Euro, but in the GFS (looked at GGEM too) case it is because its predicted axis of heavier rain was too north.   The Dec 2019 system was also another w-e system with 2ndry development near us.  The SREF which was wayyyy dry came in last place. The arw(s) were no help with this event.

 

 

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On 3/30/2020 at 6:01 PM, tombo82685 said:

likewise, right now on eps best chance of .1+ is sunday/mon timeframe

Tomorrow"s (it is getting late anyway), I have not seen anything at .1" or higher.   Even Sunday on GFS now down to .01".  I might cut the grass on Saturday.

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