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Rainshadow

2019-20 Cold Season Model QPF/Snowfall Fcstg Performance. 2/18Non-Event. The NAM Was Best At Forecasting Nothing. The SREF Came In Last.

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On 2/11/2020 at 10:19 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

2/10 12z: .35

2/11 0z: .4

2/11 12z: .31

2/12 0z: .59

eps

2/10 12z: .43

2/11 0z: .57

2/11 12z: .48

2/12 0z: .6

I thought maybe we could sneak in the 00z run this evening, but 12z run today (12th) will be the last.

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GFS on its way to owning the WEFS with this event.  Not sure who is going to be first, but I know who is going to be last.  WEFS we are talking to you.

1.JPG.0c6dd89147eddd424df0c513674fcfb3.JPG

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Even by WEFS standards this was pretty bad.  It was last by a large margin.  I had to double check I was not accidentally including the previous event forecasts into this one. (I didn't).  The GFS (above post) came in 1st, but the NAM (last run cost it first, again) and OP EC were pretty competitive.  Hard to believe models would be too wet with a low coming out of the Gulf Coast,  but then again this was a positive tilt trof event and the models/ensembles (yes you WEFs) wet bias really goes into a higher gear with patterns like this.

 

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gfs_z500_vort_us_2.png

past48.png

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On 2/11/2020 at 10:19 AM, tombo82685 said:

euro

2/10 12z: .35

2/11 0z: .4

2/11 12z: .31

2/12 0z: .59

2/12 12z: .5

eps

2/10 12z: .43

2/11 0z: .57

2/11 12z: .48

2/12 0z: .6

2/12 12z: .61

We can start the Tuesday event with the 00z run this morning.  (16th). 

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euro

2/16 0z: .14

2/16 12z: .04

2/17 0z: .11

2/17 12z: .1

2/18 0z: .03

2/18 12z: .02

eps

2/16 0z: .09

2/16 12z: .07

2/17 0z: .08

2/17 12z: .09

2/18 0z: .05

2/18 12z: .03

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13 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro

2/16 0z: .14

2/16 12z: .04

2/17 0z: .11

eps

2/16 0z: .09

2/16 12z: .07

2/17 0z: .08

Two arw(s) have rain ending as snow on Wednesday morning.  SREF mean is 0.1". 

We can go thru 12z run on Tuesday with this.

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On 2/16/2020 at 8:24 PM, tombo82685 said:

euro

2/16 0z: .14

2/16 12z: .04

2/17 0z: .11

2/17 12z: .1

2/18 9z: .03

eps

2/16 0z: .09

2/16 12z: .07

2/17 0z: .08

2/17 12z: .09

2/19 0z: .05

Yeah 12z run today the last.

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The field goal kick was good as precip split the uprights around the Delaware Valley.  The NAM came in first place.  If you notice its first place finishes, they never involve a low that passes along the coast east of us (North Carolina, we are talking to you).  More often than not, it is scenarios like this, light precip and a surface low nowhere near the Atlantic.  At the opposite end of the spectrum Wet (SREF) and Wetter (GEFS) battled it out for last place and the SREF "won" coming it last.  It is not a given that an ensemble system has to come in last with light pcpn events, the EPS came in second.  

 

1.JPG

past48.png

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