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Chubbs

Oct 10-12 Subtropical Storm Melissa

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29 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro and eps still bullish on a good soaking tomorrow. Not sure if it’s out to lunch or not. Gfs doesn’t have nearly the coverage the euro has nor amounts. Ukmet has heaviest rain mainly west of town. Ggem looks like gfs. Thinking rain tomorrow but not as heavy as euro/eps depicting.

Then again the Euro has half the rain it had from the night before.  Regardless of qpf, hard to fathom how the NJ/DE coast avoid moderate flooding (if low prob something worse) out of this, plus beach erosion.

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This is GFS based guidance.  Again it's guidance, so not sure about that major ( >/= 8.0 FT) for Friday.  Then again it is only Tuesday, but moderate seems like a fairly confident outcome at this point.

672749105_.JPG.7c66a56544ba65c0c6212e78db08ed2a.JPG

Top ten tides at Atlantic City

2.JPG.3d5d91c9c23cc5658492b4d4a498167b.JPG

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Looks like 6z euro cut back a good bit of qpf right on cue. More in line with gfs now 

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Looks like 6z euro cut back a good bit of qpf right on cue. More in line with gfs now 

I think the 06z run did that yesterday too only to have the 12z run go arky again. It is going to be a very interesting cool season qpf contest.

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38 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

This is GFS based guidance.  Again it's guidance, so not sure about that major ( >/= 8.0 FT) for Friday.  Then again it is only Tuesday, but moderate seems like a fairly confident outcome at this point.

672749105_.JPG.7c66a56544ba65c0c6212e78db08ed2a.JPG

Top ten tides at Atlantic City

2.JPG.3d5d91c9c23cc5658492b4d4a498167b.JPG

I'd agree with the confidence in moderate flood stage, especially with a solid 72 hours of onshore flow. NWS forecast only goes through Thursday and predicts a crest of 7 feet, but the forecast seem to creep higher closer to the event and Friday's tide should be even higher, so I would think a crest of at least 7.5 feet is do-able. For perspective, last week we had a crest of 6.82 feet and that was enough to close the Black Horse Pike and White Horse Pike leading out of Atlantic City.

acyn4_hg.png

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More bark than bite with this radar. Ageostropic flow advecting down drier air. Basically CAD setup. Decent lower level dry punch that is taking a bite out of what would normally be some heavy rain with those echoes. 

EB6CD59A-EA1E-4ADB-91A4-877CCE2FC929.png

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

More bark than bite with this radar. Ageostropic flow advecting down drier air. Basically CAD setup. Decent lower level dry punch that is taking a bite out of what would normally be some heavy rain with those echoes. 

EB6CD59A-EA1E-4ADB-91A4-877CCE2FC929.png

Then Euro QPF for today is going to be awful.  Even the 00z run 0.01" is a head scratcher though better than the >1" it was dishing.

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.04" overnight with measurable rain the last 4 days but only adding up to 0.73"

Light rain now under the echoes Tom mentions above temp at 51.6

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Then Euro QPF for today is going to be awful.  Even the 00z run 0.01" is a head scratcher though better than the >1" it was dishing.

I think we have a trend here. If inside 3 days and the euro is atleat 2 times wetter than the gfs which hasn’t missed a rain event it hasn’t loved, the euro is probably out to lunch. 

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I think we have a trend here. If inside 3 days and the euro is atleat 2 times wetter than the gfs which hasn’t missed a rain event it hasn’t loved, the euro is probably out to lunch. 

I was wondering about its temperature forecasts also.  There was an upgrade in June.  Well working well at 500mb. 

What still is working, is the tidal flooding forecasts.  This is a long predicted stretch of minor to moderate tidal flooding. Major at ACY is 8 feet.

444.JPG.7f8a2b0795e03a37834aafcca3a63ded.JPG

 

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The euro did the same with the hurricane around Labor Day. Went nuts on some rogue rain band while gfs was yawning

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The Lawn Gods have ensured me at least one more mowing by finally, finally, finally completely wetting everything down here with rain.

I can't believe how few such rains we've had down here since the end of August. 

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Here are the peak winds, late thurs. Could have been worse, low is far enough northeast to spare NJ/DE beaches the worst.

nj_wind_15.png

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0.14 IMBY. Came in a quick downpour at 4:45 that was loud enough to stir me from sleep.  Gorgeous morning otherwise.  Haven't mowed in three weeks, though that will now change this weekend.  Hopefully for the last time this season.

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nothing like .4 radar estimates with only .03 actually falling in gilly

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0.13". Two lows far offshore this am. One low, a little closer in could have been trouble.

twolows.jpg

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Here are the peak winds, late thurs. Could have been worse, low is far enough northeast to spare NJ/DE beaches the worst.

nj_wind_15.png

I will agree with you that it could have been worse.  But these predicted peak gusts look low.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

nothing like .4 radar estimates with only .03 actually falling in gilly

whopping .02" here.

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3 hours ago, PRINCETON ANGLER said:

Was there a Euro upgrade? I’m wondering why it’s going all NAM lately?

In June.  After seeing the Euro qpf for this event and wondering what was going on, I went back to the EC site to see when the last upgrade was.

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The euro did the same with the hurricane around Labor Day. Went nuts on some rogue rain band while gfs was yawning

Sometimes its better to fake convection and be generally too low than to be close to the resolution side of convection and go ballistic and be all wet.  Granted this was not surface based upright convective, but it was the 500mb trof/short wave aloft that was the trigger for today's precipitation and it had a convective look to it.

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

whopping .02" here.

That's nuthin'!!   .01"

Funny how we are wagering on who gets the least amount of precip these days.

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7 minutes ago, cbelke said:

That's nuthin'!!   .01"

Funny how we are wagering on who gets the least amount of precip these days.

Meanwhile, the other blocked low:  (ICON is always good for "at least this much".)

icon_asnow_wus_29.png.b0c47c83b833532ed6c86b1d8d7fbfad.png

namconus_asnow_wus_29.png.e050aa17cda3eb5a6ec6a5b45a74273c.png

gem_asnow_wus_16.png

gfs_asnow_wus_16.png

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This is a surprising late in the forecast game for the Euro to "get a clue".  Usually it locks in the big picture at about 120 hours, not 72 hours. This system, the GFS is on its way to owning it...

index.gif.90823c90689f7020329366dfd564ffca.gif

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