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Chubbs

Oct 10-12 Subtropical Storm Melissa

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Models flagging an offshore storm, possibly subtropical, later this week. Euro below in its usual further SW position. Weather here uncertain, but at minimum will create surf/marine impacts.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh24-144.gif

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The middle of this week is unraveling quickly. What once looked like a nice stretch of days is turning into onshore marine refuse at the least.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Even Friday evening, still there:

434343443.JPG.e5bb8ffb505fb3df85c0982963fd8b0c.JPG

Hoping for a further N solution. Could be problematic for the shore, with strong high to NE.

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20 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

 

Hoping for a further N solution. Could be problematic for the shore, with strong high to NE.

Yeah checked upcoming full moon is on the 13th, so it could be worse. Regardless a GFS solution would be better than the lingering farther to the SW solutions of the UK/EC.

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah checked upcoming full moon is on the 13th, so it could be worse. Regardless a GFS solution would be better than the lingering farther to the SW solutions of the UK/EC.

2. Another non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to develop over
the western North Atlantic between Bermuda and the east coast of the
United States by the middle of the week.  The low could acquire
some subtropical characteristics later in the week while it drifts
northward off the east coast of the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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Getting into the time of year too of where did that come from solutions start happening.  I must admit there was a day 9 Euro solution that had something not nice for the middle of the week.  Maybe the day 9 snide is over (well at least once).  Also a massive snowstorm is predicted for MT/ND/MN and points north in nearby Canada.

 

 

index.gif

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Getting into the time of year too of where did that come from solutions start happening.  I must admit there was a day 9 Euro solution that had something not nice for the middle of the week.  Maybe the day 9 snide is over (well at least once).  Also a massive snowstorm is predicted for MT/ND/MN and points north in nearby Canada.

Caught me by surprise. Was thinking about going fishing offshore next thursday and checked the marine forecast.

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Not sure this will get close enough to bring widespread heavy rain outside of some sort of tucked in meso low. But with with strong high to the north and if the low stays to the south it will bring a tight pressure gradient and onshore flow from several days if true. Cloudy skies and I would imagine periods of marine puke and possibly rain if a little meso low forms or not. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Not sure this will get close enough to bring widespread heavy rain outside of some sort of tucked in meso low. But with with strong high to the north and if the low stays to the south it will bring a tight pressure gradient and onshore flow from several days if true. Cloudy skies and I would imagine periods of marine puke and possibly rain if a little meso low forms or not. 

Yeah this is really more about the 500mb trof/low possibly developing a second low or just providing a good exhaust environment for rising air with the onshore than with the offshore low itself.  I know yesterday at work when I saw the Euro I thought no rain and was surprised to see all of that measurable before looking aloft.

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Main impact is high tides/waves. Not unusual for a noreaster but prolonged over several days. This product only goes to wed.

njatl.gif

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Main impact is high tides/waves. Not unusual for a noreaster but prolonged over several days. This product only goes to wed.

njatl.gif

Yeah, that is not the end of it by any means.

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12 hours ago, Qtown Snow said:

12z euro was not that interested

00z Euro went qpf ballistic for Wednesday a 3" bullseye over Paul's house with an axis of heavy rain through your backyard. It also has a 6" bullseye right over Baltimore. Not its finest hour as no other OP model comes close to that.

 

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For PHL proper, the I am drunk again Euro and UKMET are wetter than the GFS/NAM/GGEM/ICON for Wednesday.  Some of the latter are completely dry. The next chance for rain is centered on Friday as that low is predicted by most models to retrograde.  That aside, there is no difference with the predicted onshore onslaught of marine puke air (below normal temps, not much sun) and the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion along the shore.  To continue with Charlie's chart, this is the GFS storm surge guidance forecast and 7 feet above man lower low water is the onset of moderate tidal flooding for Atlantic City.

 

njatl.gif

 

Wednesday Evening

1.JPG

Friday Evening

2.JPG

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

For PHL proper, the I am drunk again Euro and UKMET are wetter than the GFS/NAM/GGEM/ICON for Wednesday.  Some of the latter are completely dry. The next chance for rain is centered on Friday as that low is predicted by most models to retrograde.  That aside, there is no difference with the predicted onshore onslaught of marine puke air (below normal temps, not much sun) and the potential for coastal flooding and beach erosion along the shore.  To continue with Charlie's chart, this is the GFS storm surge guidance forecast and 7 feet above man lower low water is the onset of moderate tidal flooding for Atlantic City.

 

 

 

Wednesday Evening

 

Friday Evening

 

Just a wee bit of an outlier. The 6z eps has a general 1.5-2" of rain from today through saturday morning with best chance on Wednesday then some on thursday

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So, the dog in my avatar, her sister, the wife, and I are invading PhillyWx.com Country this week for the annual Greyhounds Reach the Beach event in Dewey/Rehoboth Wed-Sun. So...

Vacation/Fishing Guy Me: This really sucks, hope it's further east and doesn't retrograde.

Weather Nerd Me: Awesome! Can't wait to see that pounding surf!

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17 minutes ago, JamieO said:

So, the dog in my avatar, her sister, the wife, and I are invading PhillyWx.com Country this week for the annual Greyhounds Reach the Beach event in Dewey/Rehoboth Wed-Sun. So...

Vacation/Fishing Guy Me: This really sucks, hope it's further east and doesn't retrograde.

Weather Nerd Me: Awesome! Can't wait to see that pounding surf!

Well the golfer in me just cancelled our Cape May trip for the middle of this week.  I timed that nice fall weather trip perfectly.........

The surf won't underperform.

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22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Just a wee bit of an outlier. The 6z eps has a general 1.5-2" of rain from today through saturday morning with best chance on Wednesday then some on thursday

Just a wee bit.  06z EC just lost 90% of its qpf for Paul.

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Wet euro run again. 2-5” over the area mainly from philly northeast. Backs the Friday system closer and really hammers sne and nyc area. We get a good rain from Wednesday meso low which is supported by eps 

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This doesn't cover the back up on Thursday night / Friday completely.  This also includes some morning rain today.

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Euro and eps still bullish on a good soaking tomorrow. Not sure if it’s out to lunch or not. Gfs doesn’t have nearly the coverage the euro has nor amounts. Ukmet has heaviest rain mainly west of town. Ggem looks like gfs. Thinking rain tomorrow but not as heavy as euro/eps depicting.

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