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Rainshadow

Dorian & Puerto Rico & Florida & The Carolinas

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10 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

1.JPG.db9914f223a82326b6e84372b19e7dff.JPG

Definitely would not have expected Sandbridge and Norfolk to have the same max wind gust.

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A rare bust for the ACT forecasting method.

 Public Information Statement
 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
 507 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019
 
 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS...
 
 Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider             
 
 ...Delaware...
 
 ...Sussex County...
 Lewes                        49 MPH    0218 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 Dewey Beach                  46 MPH    0111 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 Lewes NOS                    45 MPH    0212 PM 09/06   NOS-NWLON            
 Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 42 MPH    0135 PM 09/06   DEOS                 
 Rehoboth Beach               41 MPH    1220 PM 09/06   DEDOT                
 Bethany Beach, DE-Boardwalk  40 MPH    0200 PM 09/06   DEOS                 
 Georgetown                   39 MPH    0202 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
 
 ...New Jersey...
 
 ...Atlantic County...
 Atlantic City Airport        40 MPH    0259 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
 
 ...Cape May County...
 Ludlam Bay                   40 MPH    0445 PM 09/06   WXFLOW 
 Ocean City                   40 MPH    0947 AM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 
 ...Monmouth County...
 1 E Manasquan                42 MPH    0505 PM 09/06   Mesonet              
 
 ...Ocean County...
 Rutgers                      50 MPH    0428 PM 09/06   WXFLOW  
 Barnegat Inlet Light         49 MPH    0651 PM 09/06   WXFLOW             
 Tuckerton                    48 MPH    0544 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 Trixies                      46 MPH    0413 PM 09/06   WXFLOW  
 Kite Island                  46 MPH    0343 PM 09/06   WXFLOW  
 Long Beach Island            46 MPH    0607 PM 09/06   WXFLOW            
 Harvey Cedars                44 MPH    0450 PM 09/06   Mesonet              
 Seaside Park                 43 MPH    0516 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 South Seaside Park           42 MPH    0442 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 Beach Haven                  41 MPH    0721 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 Seaside Heights              40 MPH    0630 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 North Beach Haven            40 MPH    0629 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 Mantoloking                  39 MPH    0503 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 
 ...Delaware...
 
 ...Maritime Stations...
 18 E Fenwick Island          40 MPH    0850 PM 09/06   NDBC 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

A rare bust for the ACT forecasting method.


 Public Information Statement
 National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
 507 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019
 
 ...HIGHEST WIND GUST REPORTS...
 
 Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider             
 
 ...Delaware...
 
 ...Sussex County...
 Lewes                        49 MPH    0218 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 Dewey Beach                  46 MPH    0111 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 Lewes NOS                    45 MPH    0212 PM 09/06   NOS-NWLON            
 Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 42 MPH    0135 PM 09/06   DEOS                 
 Rehoboth Beach               41 MPH    1220 PM 09/06   DEDOT                
 Bethany Beach, DE-Boardwalk  40 MPH    0200 PM 09/06   DEOS                 
 Georgetown                   39 MPH    0202 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
 
 ...New Jersey...
 
 ...Atlantic County...
 Atlantic City Airport        40 MPH    0259 PM 09/06   ASOS                 
 
 ...Cape May County...
 Ludlam Bay                   40 MPH    0445 PM 09/06   WXFLOW 
 Ocean City                   40 MPH    0947 AM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 
 ...Monmouth County...
 1 E Manasquan                42 MPH    0505 PM 09/06   Mesonet              
 
 ...Ocean County...
 Rutgers                      50 MPH    0428 PM 09/06   WXFLOW  
 Barnegat Inlet Light         49 MPH    0651 PM 09/06   WXFLOW             
 Tuckerton                    48 MPH    0544 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 Trixies                      46 MPH    0413 PM 09/06   WXFLOW  
 Kite Island                  46 MPH    0343 PM 09/06   WXFLOW  
 Long Beach Island            46 MPH    0607 PM 09/06   WXFLOW            
 Harvey Cedars                44 MPH    0450 PM 09/06   Mesonet              
 Seaside Park                 43 MPH    0516 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 South Seaside Park           42 MPH    0442 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 Beach Haven                  41 MPH    0721 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 Seaside Heights              40 MPH    0630 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 North Beach Haven            40 MPH    0629 PM 09/06   CWOP                 
 Mantoloking                  39 MPH    0503 PM 09/06   WXFLOW               
 
 ...Delaware...
 
 ...Maritime Stations...
 18 E Fenwick Island          40 MPH    0850 PM 09/06   NDBC 

 

 

I think one can conclude that the ACT (I recall it was the T part of the model that failed with this) summer/tropical outlook was a bit too conservative overall.

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For anyone following #Dorian, I’m sure you know @iCyclone (Josh Morgerman) and @ExtremeStorms (Jim Edds), if not personally, from our days at AmWx and EUSWX.  Both chased the storm to the Bahamas, Josh to Abaco and Jim to Hope Town, and both had successfully intercepted the core.  Jim recently tweeted out these photos.  As a note, the watch he’s wearing calibrated and matched the reading of a calibrated Kestrel.  The other image is an all time Hall of Fame weather photo, and speaks for itself.  Fortunately both Jim and Josh made it home safely...

 

 

78DAFA74-EF8B-46C8-986A-BED430D22687.jpeg

11A20765-8AA5-4278-8E23-E044A7008987.jpeg

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Wow. Dorian is about to make landfall right over Halifax with 100 mph winds. 

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