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Rainshadow

Dorian & Puerto Rico & Florida & The Carolinas

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12z and 18z euro still dropping steady rains over area. Gfs still saying no 

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Could see Dorian get bumped up to cat 3 here. Pressure dropping and unflagged dropsonde of 100kts sfmr

EEC0C9E4-95A6-4FDC-BD49-A26E0D2C76C1.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

12z and 18z euro still dropping steady rains over area. Gfs still saying no 

This is binary, one will be right and one will be wrong.

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WE are talking about using post cards to determine first downs at this point as the model tracks on a global scale are thisclose.  But the Euro 24hr 500mb forecast looks better than the GFS with the western ridge. Not sure about the 591 high on the GFS if it is a stand alone.

500_190905_00.gif.92370d60b9a571ed0bc3cb158fafa3ce.gif

ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_2.png

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Barring a wobble, it looks like Dorian's farthest west longitude will be 79.8.  11 pm advisory is 79.6.

Models looking good with 12z adjustment off of the GA coast.  HWRF did not do well with earlier runs bringing Dorian to Cape Canaveral.

 

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While Dorian trended to the east of model projections off of the Florida & Georgia coast, they all have less of a recurvature and what looks like a Cape Lookout if not Cape Fear hit and some even pass it into or just west of Pamlico Sound. 

For us the chances for rain from Dorian in the non GFS models has increased & the PHL Euro qpf for this morning is less and near its ensemble mean.

 

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It's always fascinated me just how far the clouds from large hurricanes travel from the center. In the case of Dorian, the whole way up into EPA and SNE.

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LOCATION...32.1N 79.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH MOVEMENT...NNE 8 MPH...CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB.
24H        31.9N 79.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H        32.1N 79.2W   95 KT 110 MPH  (heck of a 48hr forecast)
72H        32.0N 79.4W   95 KT 110 MPH  (not too shabby either) 
96H        32.5N 79.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H       33.5N 78.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

 

 

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On 9/4/2019 at 6:58 AM, tombo82685 said:

Yea bottoms it out at 935 I’d be shocked if we got more than a 10mph increase in winds. Probably like 5mph back up to 110. To large of a Storm as it takes more pressure drop to get wind response from Dorian. 

The bottom ended up being around 955mb, a 9mb intensification. Tell the Euro to stop taking Kool-Aid from the old GFS.

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The bottom ended up being around 955mb, a 9mb intensification. Tell the Euro to stop taking Kool-Aid from the old GFS.

Can you please tell it, I’m busy right now 

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Ukmet just shifted towards the dry gfs, big coup for the gfs coming?

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NOUS42 KCHS 051802
PNSCHS
GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-060555-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
155 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

...HIGHEST WIND GUSTS FROM HURRICANE DORIAN AS OF 155 PM...

Location                     Speed     Time/Date       Provider

...Georgia...

...Chatham County...
North Tybee Island           60 MPH    0139 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Fort Pulaski                 57 MPH    0148 AM 09/05   NOS-NWLON
South Tybee Island           56 MPH    0847 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Savannah Intl Airport        45 MPH    1005 AM 09/05   ASOS
Hunter Army Air Field        45 MPH    0629 AM 09/05   AWOS
Savannah NWR                 41 MPH    0923 AM 09/05   RAWS

...South Carolina...

...Beaufort County...
Hilton Head Airport          67 MPH    0135 AM 09/05   AWOS
Beaufort                     61 MPH    0942 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Beaufort                     52 MPH    0215 AM 09/05   AWOS
Etv Beaufort                 45 MPH    0520 AM 09/05   MESOWEST
Hilton Head Island           42 MPH    0517 AM 09/05   CWOP

...Berkeley County...
Moncks Corner                51 MPH    0515 AM 09/05   AWOS

...Charleston County...
Charleston Intl Airport      69 MPH    1148 AM 09/05   ASOS
Charleston                   67 MPH    1148 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Sullivans Island             66 MPH    1123 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Isle of Palms                63 MPH    0115 AM 09/05   CWOP
3 ESE Secessionville         62 MPH    1100 PM 09/04   NDBC
Isle of Palms                61 MPH    1241 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Ace Basin                    60 MPH    0655 AM 09/05   RAWS
Charleston, SC               59 MPH    0518 AM 09/05   NOS-NWLON
Mount Pleasant               59 MPH    1255 PM 09/05   AWOS
Sullivans Island             46 MPH    1220 PM 09/05   AWS
Charleston                   46 MPH    0415 AM 09/05   CWOP
Wambaw                       39 MPH    1247 PM 09/05   RAWS

...Colleton County...
Walterboro                   40 MPH    0915 AM 09/05   AWOS

...Dorchester County...
2 NW Summerville             61 MPH    0818 AM 09/05   CWOP
Summerville                  44 MPH    0455 AM 09/05   AWOS

...Georgia...

...Maritime Stations...
Buoy 41008                   67 MPH    0950 PM 09/04   NDBC

...South Carolina...
6 ESE Dewees Island          92 MPH    1253 PM 09/05   NDBC
5 ESE Fripp Island           92 MPH    0808 AM 09/05   NDBC
Buoy 41004                   87 MPH    0840 AM 09/05   NDBC
Shutes Folly                 80 MPH    1228 PM 09/05   WXFLOW
Fort Sumter                  80 MPH    1206 PM 09/05   WXFLOW
Folly Beach                  67 MPH    1217 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
Calibogue Sound              59 MPH    0235 AM 09/05   WXFLOW
&&

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Can you please tell it, I’m busy right now 

As you should.:cheers:

As for tomorrow's pcpn chances locally, this is the Euro's theme song:

 

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Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
300 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

NOAA buoy 41004 recently measured sustained winds of 85 mph (137
km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h) in the southern eyewall of
Dorian.

The Weatherflow site in Winyah Bay, SC recently reported a wind gust
of 88 mph (142 km/h) at a height of 50 ft.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 78.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

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