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Rainshadow

Dorian & Puerto Rico & Florida & The Carolinas

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The first sign of the Armageddon, the Canadian dissipates Dorian, while the other models now keep some semblance of it and the UKMET is off to the intensity races again with a tropical system.

 

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Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch are already in affect for Puerto Rico.  Hopefully its track remains far enough south of the island.  Then we have the does it or does it not go through the shredder on Hispaniola and then a fairly steady track (as of now) forecast toward Florida.

 

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2 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Looking at the visible sat, shear is not a problem. May get to Cat 2

I’ll take the under

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I’ll take the under

I'm thinking TS status all the way to Florida until it re-emerges in the Gulf.

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7 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I'm thinking TS status all the way to Florida until it re-emerges in the Gulf.

I could see a weak cat 1 hurricane. Who knows, intensity forecasts are such a crap shoot 

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I could see a weak cat 1 hurricane. Who knows, intensity forecasts are such a crap shoot 

Easier to guess when fig crushing cold will set in. 

Interesting the GFS forecasts it to hug the coast of Florida and ride it up to the outer banks of NC and out to see. That just seems to easy and convenient at this point. 

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

Easier to guess when fig crushing cold will set in. 

Interesting the GFS forecasts it to hug the coast of Florida and ride it up to the outer banks of NC and out to see. That just seems to easy and convenient at this point. 

I thought initially the GFS was just being the GFS, but the center relocation farther north has opened a can of worms.  For poor Puerto Rico, it has increased the likelihood of a direct hit and a non-Gulf final track chances have increased.

 

 

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Not to get too speculative and I am certainly not a tropical expert, but I associate a turn from a NW track back to a WNW or W track (as Dorian may do as it approaches Florida) with strengthening in many Atlantic hurricanes.  It seems like once they are being steered by a ridge to the north that conditions can turn conducive to strengthening, regardless of what models may think.

Some examples from memory and quick research:  Floyd 1999, Isabel 2003, Jeanne 2004, Katrina 2005 (before Florida),  Irma 2017.  These storms were generally further out in the Atlantic than Dorian will be so that may be a factor.

Ike 2008 (out in the Atlantic, long before landfall in Texas) seems to be a counter example where the storm was pushed toward the WSW by a strong ridge but was somewhat disrupted by shear.

Again, not a forecast and environmental conditions may preclude this type of strengthening for Dorian, but just making an observation based on some past storms.

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Up early in the Azores. Euro just in. Looks like an active tracking week.

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7 hours ago, gravitywave98 said:

Not to get too speculative and I am certainly not a tropical expert, but I associate a turn from a NW track back to a WNW or W track (as Dorian may do as it approaches Florida) with strengthening in many Atlantic hurricanes.  It seems like once they are being steered by a ridge to the north that conditions can turn conducive to strengthening, regardless of what models may think.

Some examples from memory and quick research:  Floyd 1999, Isabel 2003, Jeanne 2004, Katrina 2005 (before Florida),  Irma 2017.  These storms were generally further out in the Atlantic than Dorian will be so that may be a factor.

Ike 2008 (out in the Atlantic, long before landfall in Texas) seems to be a counter example where the storm was pushed toward the WSW by a strong ridge but was somewhat disrupted by shear.

Again, not a forecast and environmental conditions may preclude this type of strengthening for Dorian, but just making an observation based on some past storms.

I can't say I have noticed, but your post makes meteorological sense.  All things being equal for a tropical system to be pushed back to the south, there must be a ridge north of it.  Not only would that provide at least a northward side exhaust, but in general keep it tracking in areas that typically have less shear.

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Speaking of ridges to the north, in spite a more northwest turn initially, the models other than the op GFS build a strong enough ridge north of Dorian to eventually move it back to the west into Florida.  IIRC this new GFS initially had Irma turning well out to sea, so we may be seeing a rightward bias with this model if Dorian hits Florida. All the models have had a left of track bias the past 24 hours.

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UKMET Day 7:  (The tropical storm symbols north of Dorian day 7 position is Erin).

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I thought initially the GFS was just being the GFS, but the center relocation farther north has opened a can of worms.  For poor Puerto Rico, it has increased the likelihood of a direct hit and a non-Gulf final track chances have increased.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well, my original thought was the high in the central US would help suppress it South and steer it out in the Gulf of Mexico, however, it now looks like the high will be further East and help Dorian stay on the East Coast of Florida. It does appear like other models are in agreement with a coastal hugger. 

 

That shift a bit to the North with Dorian's center will be a mess for Puerto Rico, which hasn't recovered from last year yet. Not a good situation.

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26 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Well, my original thought was the high in the central US would help suppress it South and steer it out in the Gulf of Mexico, however, it now looks like the high will be further East and help Dorian stay on the East Coast of Florida. It does appear like other models are in agreement with a coastal hugger. 

 

That shift a bit to the North with Dorian's center will be a mess for Puerto Rico, which hasn't recovered from last year yet. Not a good situation.

Now that Dorian looks like it will miss the shredder, it's yikes on the intensity.

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A closer look at the individual Euro ensemble members. Many of these would be Cat 1 or Cat 2 strength, but since Dorian is such a small storm it's possible the coarser resolution of the global models is "missing" some of Dorian's features that would allow it to be even stronger than what's shown here.

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26 minutes ago, ACwx said:

A closer look at the individual Euro ensemble members. Many of these would be Cat 1 or Cat 2 strength, but since Dorian is such a small storm it's possible the coarser resolution of the global models is "missing" some of Dorian's features that would allow it to be even stronger than what's shown here.

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Yeah, it is (and projected to be) a pretty compact storm.  Plus models stink with intensity forecasts.  I liked it when the models were asked about Dorian, they went who?; who? late last week.

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This is an example of the predicted tight wind field  (<1 degree of latitude, looks like about 50 miles) with Dorian, not what I think is an accurate landfall forecast.  I don't know and never will at 108 hours in the future.

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Puerto Rico & the USVI has been sadly amazing how they have been Velcro for tropical systems lately.

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28 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah, it is (and projected to be) a pretty compact storm.  Plus models stink with intensity forecasts.  I liked it when the models were asked about Dorian, they went who?; who? late last week.

NHC has been slowly ratcheting up intensity projection and hinting it could be conserivative.  Bath water and a more moist atmosphere awaits past PR.  Almost feels like a little catch up is being played, SE residents might be caught a bit off guard

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It's been interesting to note that in the short-term, the forecast path has consistently moved farther east. Just 2 days ago the storm was supposed to cross Hispaniola, now it may miss Puerto Rico completely to its east.

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Someone on the Stormtrack forum noted the op GFS track was odd given that it shows the same jet configuration as the other models that show a more westerly track.

 

NHC noted that the size of the storm was expected to increase as well.

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21 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

Someone on the Stormtrack forum noted the op GFS track was odd given that it shows the same jet configuration as the other models that show a more westerly track.

 

NHC noted that the size of the storm was expected to increase as well.

If it goes through an ERC it will help increase its size

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6z euro was weaker with approach to FL, strong tropical system weak cat 1

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6z eps, only one with cat 2/3 strength as of now. As I stated last night, intensity forecasts from models are horrible. Best to just watch the trends from recon. 

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