Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Sign in to follow this  
CameronCat

30 day accuracy?

Recommended Posts

This question arose from a casual conversation with a friend.

A year or so ago, there was some consternation in the Met community about Accu-weather (and perhaps some other services) attempting to stretch detail forecasting well beyond the usual 7-10 day period; they now take it out to around 30 days.

My question: has anybody tracked the accuracy of those very long-lead predictions? How often did they get it right from 3 or 4 weeks out? 

Thanks for any help provided. This is one of those "just wondering" questions but the answer might be interesting.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, CameronCat said:

This question arose from a casual conversation with a friend.

A year or so ago, there was some consternation in the Met community about Accu-weather (and perhaps some other services) attempting to stretch detail forecasting well beyond the usual 7-10 day period; they now take it out to around 30 days.

My question: has anybody tracked the accuracy of those very long-lead predictions? How often did they get it right from 3 or 4 weeks out? 

Thanks for any help provided. This is one of those "just wondering" questions but the answer might be interesting.

 

I would imagine if one applied statistical methodology to evaluate a daily forecast probability of precipitation skill's it would drop down to random chance somewhere around day 9.  I haven't done it in a while but weekly outlooks don't start showing some significant temperature improvement until we go from week 3 to week 2.  This is not to say one can't get the general pattern right in week 3 or 4, but narrowing down specificity to a day........

  1.JPG.22a719ff687c0010c3c64a0eff8f025e.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you -- that's about what I thought.
My conversation partner put(s) way-more credence in the extended long range forecasts than they merit. 
I need to convince him that "sayin' don't make it so."


Thanks again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...