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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussion, A November That Is November.

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16 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I see the gfs starting to sniff out some 40s next weekend for lows. The start of fig annihilation. 

All I see are 70s and 80s.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

All I see are 70s and 80s.

Put your glasses back on then 

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Put your glasses back on then 

Yikes, now I see 90s.

55555.JPG.1cfbf2739898f53a2513fb448206a589.JPG

Its PHX, not PHL.

 

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Euro going 90s bonkers in the middle of next week (Wed/Thu).  GFS predicted 850s would support 90 on Wednesday also, but the predicted 925s do not.  The OP Euro run is living on the 95th percentile, EPS would support a close to 90 (89 or 88) for Wednesday, but not Thursday.  

Beyond that, we are heading toward warmer MJO phases. We are in Phase 4 now, and phase 7 & 8 are statistically supported for warmer weather locally.  This is not happening next week, too soon, but supports the warmer weeklies for the second half of the month. 

Also now that the seeds have been planted and Dorian grew, the current MJO state would suppress tropical activity.

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38 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Euro going 90s bonkers in the middle of next week (Wed/Thu).  GFS predicted 850s would support 90 on Wednesday also, but the predicted 925s do not.  The OP Euro run is living on the 95th percentile, EPS would support a close to 90 (89 or 88) for Wednesday, but not Thursday.  

Beyond that, we are heading toward warmer MJO phases. We are in Phase 4 now, and phase 7 & 8 are statistically supported for warmer weather locally.  This is not happening next week, too soon, but supports the warmer weeklies for the second half of the month. 

Also now that the seeds have been planted and Dorian grew, the current MJO state would suppress tropical activity.

90s are over I thought I told you that already

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

90s are over I thought I told you that already

I told you we need to have an intervention for him. Deny him access to any model that predicts anything above the 80's. 

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5 minutes ago, cbelke said:

I told you we need to have an intervention for him. Deny him access to any model that predicts anything above the 80's. 

Why do you think he loves 90s so much?

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Why do you think he loves 90s so much?

I don't know. I guess its either the figs or he WANTS an intervention.

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The OP EC & GFS have dropped predicted 90s for next week, although both threaten it on Wednesday & Thursday.  It looks close as of now, but given it is mid September my guess is without a slam dunk thermal look at this point, we should fall short.  But in terms of overall warmer pattern, that is still there, the EPS ends with 8 consecutive days of above normal temps outlooked.

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After this weekend, the GEFS is pretty much non-stop above normal 500mb heights (until that tropical system late in the run) and non stop above normal 850mb temps (a slight dip to normalcy next weekend) thru the end of its run on September 23rd.  A Bermuda high set-up and while we are well into la la land, we are also in the season.

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_59.png.51e6f291403d2f6872c789559db14710.png

 

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We will see how this goes forward as it is in la la la la land.  GEFS & EPS have above normal 500mb heights thru the 22nd and then bring an Aleutian Low, WRN NOAM Ridge, East NOAM trof (some tropical related) configuration from the 23rd thru the end of its run on the 26th. 

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GFS trying to bring in the mother of all September troughs into the US near the end of the month - 534dm lines nearly into Iowa. There has been some pretty interesting interactions with a trough and tropical system several days before this as well showing up on the GFS.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

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2 hours ago, ACwx said:

GFS trying to bring in the mother of all September troughs into the US near the end of the month - 534dm lines nearly into Iowa. There has been some pretty interesting interactions with a trough and tropical system several days before this as well showing up on the GFS.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

Just  wait til January. The trof will extend to Chile 

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5 hours ago, ACwx said:

GFS trying to bring in the mother of all September troughs into the US near the end of the month - 534dm lines nearly into Iowa. There has been some pretty interesting interactions with a trough and tropical system several days before this as well showing up on the GFS.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png

Thing of beauty, I love la la land.  GFS has been trying to blast cold Canadian air in past d8 for a week now...I keep hoping it will get closer in time but not quite yet.  Just a matter of time before we get our first genuine cool blast

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Honestly, the heat in September is nothing out of the ordinary. If you look back through history plenty of years where September averaged 3 or more days of 90 plus. Where I think the issue as of late has been is the higher mins skew things as well as if we don't get 90s we get mid to upper 80s well into september. We really don't get that true taste of fall it seems till late

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14 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Honestly, the heat in September is nothing out of the ordinary. If you look back through history plenty of years where September averaged 3 or more days of 90 plus. Where I think the issue as of late has been is the higher mins skew things as well as if we don't get 90s we get mid to upper 80s well into september. We really don't get that true taste of fall it seems till late

Six of the ten warmest Septembers on record for Philadelphia have occurred within the last 10 years.  Maximums it's 3 out of 10; minimums it's 6 out of 10.

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Two days of 90 or higher for September is the long term, entire period of record, mean.  Not that we are necessarily done.

If we lower the bar to # of days of 80 or higher, we have had already 9 days.  The period of record mean is 12 days.  The last September to not reach double digits was 2009.

Now if we flip this to the number of days that the minimum temperature was 60 degrees or higher:

We have already had 11 (out of 12 possible days).  The POR mean is 17 days.  The last four Septembers have all been in the 20s. The last truly below average was 2013 with just 10 days.  2014 would have matched the POR mean thru that year.  1881 holds that record with 29 days.

 

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We get so warped with all of this warmth, it is easy to forget the normal high for today (13th) for PHL is 79F.  On last night's EPS today is the coolest predicted day in the bunch.  The last 8 days end with above normal temps outlooked. The hottest predicted day (next threat for 90 or coming close) is Monday.

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56 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Six of the ten warmest Septembers on record for Philadelphia have occurred within the last 10 years.  Maximums it's 3 out of 10; minimums it's 6 out of 10.

Yea I don't doubt that and I figured the mins were skewing it. I was speaking in terms of 90 days that us getting them in September is on par pretty much. 

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I don't doubt that and I figured the mins were skewing it. I was speaking in terms of 90 days that us getting them in September is on par pretty much. 

Yeah if we end up here, it is right in line with the POR mean.  But, we still have 16 more days to go and this lovely looking Augtember on the EC:

ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png.ebfaccc50fd10cc349850bc1645235cc.png

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EPS continuing its warm look for the second half of this month, all above normal max temps outlooked the 20th thru the 28th with let's say threats of 90 on the 21st thru the 25th.  The GEFS is not as warm, but still above normal thru the 26th.  This warmth does have MJO legs as phases 7-1 are statistically significant for warmth in Augtember.

3.JPG.ee6ec4ffe9d2004bc78bb37ee054634e.JPG

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No change in the warmer theme of the last 10 days of both the EPS & GEFS which go thru the 29th.  As in last night, the GEFS was still above normal, but not as above normal as the EPS.  Both though are zeroing in on a pretty warm signal from the 21st thru the 23rd. Might you, Monday (tomorrow0 once looked like a 90 threat and now looks like "only" the mid 80s.

The OP EC would support a 90 or higher on both the 22nd & 23rd.  OP GFS would fall short. OP GFS then continues its eastern deep trof theme look after that in la la land.

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