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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussion, A November That Is November.

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6 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Do you guys like when the  -nao hooks up with the se ridge? Pretty solid connection with phase 1 of mjo of cold west, se ridge east

Yes, if it means a few more fishing/golfing days before winter sets in.

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Interesting to evaluate the GFS trend over the past 29 runs (7 days)...although I could only post an image reflecting half of that for some reason, here was a basic analysis:

1) a -PNA (or neutral) was the more predominant depiction overall, approximately 21 of the 29 runs had neutral or negative

2) the area above Hawaii flipped from a persistent ridge, to a trough, over only about 4-6 model runs (1-1.5 days).  This in turn built a phantom +PNA that prompted visions of an eastern trough.  Pretty incredible to see how impactful that was, and something to potentially monitor down the road.  

3) the -NAO has strengthened to a closed 543 dam cell...we should be within a more accurate teleconnection window so a -NAO appears likely next week, and will likely go to waste, thanks to a hostile Pac

I'm most curious on #2 as to what caused such a drastic flip flop that had significant implications on our projected sensible weather.   Was it MJO driven?  Beyond my pay grade

It also re-emphasized to me the importance of letting trends play out over at least 2 days on mid-long range modeling to smooth out the expected variability.  I had my snow colored glasses on and just wanted to see cold all the while seeing the Pac flow consistently pounding Canada with above avg 850's while we were somehow eeking out BN down to the surface.  I latched on to the cold prospects over that 2-day stretch when the majority of guidance over time reflected otherwise.

Inkedb46f76ee-0168-416d-968c-965192f5a833.gif

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36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ugly ugly ugly eps run for extended 

Perfect.  Right on cue.  Get the crap out of the way then 12/20 on we're in deep pow

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Ugly ugly ugly eps run for extended 

Here is the 5 day mean of it

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5374400.png

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Also, big torch alert for the day before Thanksgving/thanksgiving itself. Looks warm as a big cutter heads west of us due to -epo dump out west. 

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Just now, daniel said:

Doesn’t look that bad to me tbh 

you have a +epo/+ao/-pna/-nao. Flow is straight off the pacific, no cold really anywhere in the US. All locked up north. I mean it's not a torch, but thats still an ugly look

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with all that blue everywhere, thats the 850 anamoly lol. Thats why seeing blue on h5 is decieving, can mean cold, but can also just mean stormy active weather. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5374400.png

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

you have a +epo/+ao/-pna/-nao. Flow is straight off the pacific, no cold really anywhere in the US. All locked up north. I mean it's not a torch, but thats still an ugly look

It's a forecast, but it's a flip "as is", an Aleutian Ridge is not cold here.  Yeah those 850 departures are tied to that deep deep system as of now forecast just before Thanksgiving.  You get that strong an alleged storm going west of us, we will torch (and be pretty soaked) preceding it.   

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Anyways, this was based off the 0z gefs from today, but getting some members now starting to show a SSW. They are definite outliers, but worth noting. As a whole for the mean, big decrease in strength of the PV

latest_u1060_ens.png

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euro isn't there yet, definite weakening of PV, but not close to SSW yet. Massive warm anomalies over north america and half of the pole

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-4942400.png

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I did start a Meteorological winter thread.  If what you are talking about is exclusively in November, keep using this thread, but if it bleeds into December is about December, please use the new thread:

 

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I did start a Meteorological winter thread.  If what you are talking about is exclusively in November, keep using this thread, but if it bleeds into December is about December, please use the new thread:

 

I feel like we should just lock this up and carry everything into the winter thread. Your call. 

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2 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

I feel like we should just lock this up and carry everything into the winter thread. Your call. 

I can do that later, that is fine by me.

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