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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussion, A November That Is November.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The 10-15 day period looks interesting on the EPS, I would say more middle to later part of this period. Granted we are way out here, so this will change. Looking at it right now it's a pretty decent setup for a stormy maybe wintry storm for someone in the east. My only concern would be cold air availability. But we have a split flow in the jet, northern stream bringing the cold and southern jet bringing the disturbances. You can also see we have a legit -nao here as well as 50/50 low to a degree. Can see the below normal hgts in the south indicating a disturbance tracking out of the southwest.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4726400.png.5e741edcb0b57a8f044b817730357ed7.png

Euro Op has a wintry mix d8-10 range, it's quite a battleground between warm/cold.  Let's see how it evolves as the timeframes draws nearer.  It does appear to some extent every time a full on torch attempts to plant roots, the flow keeps buckling and some near to below creeps in.  It's not a great pattern by any stretch, but it is fighting tooth and nail to avoid the 1st half of last winter's look ugh

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Gefs in motion trend towards a building +PNA which is the saving grace from zonal Pac flow.  -NAO attempts to build but EPS not as enthusiastic despite a similar overall look.  

At d10 I'm looking for what areas are consistent vs fluctuating.  +EPO is a consistent look over AK, the PNA region appears the most variable.  The PV does not retreat entirerly to the arctic which is logical especially with a +PNA, furthermore if a -NAO appears.  Split flow could create an active period and baroclinic zone likely nearby.  Latitude helps in this setup in Nov.  Not a torchy look...washes out to near avg.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240_trend.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

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Like the southern stream activity this week. Approaching a good Atlantic pattern also. Hints of things to come?

euro96.gif

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48 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Gefs in motion trend towards a building +PNA which is the saving grace from zonal Pac flow.  -NAO attempts to build but EPS not as enthusiastic despite a similar overall look.  

At d10 I'm looking for what areas are consistent vs fluctuating.  +EPO is a consistent look over AK, the PNA region appears the most variable.  The PV does not retreat entirerly to the arctic which is logical especially with a +PNA, furthermore if a -NAO appears.  Split flow could create an active period and baroclinic zone likely nearby.  Latitude helps in this setup in Nov.  Not a torchy look...washes out to near avg.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240_trend.gif

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png

You'll find the Pacific Ocean side more often stabler than the rest of NOAM and then especially the NAO.

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11 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Euro Op has a wintry mix d8-10 range, it's quite a battleground between warm/cold.  Let's see how it evolves as the timeframes draws nearer.  It does appear to some extent every time a full on torch attempts to plant roots, the flow keeps buckling and some near to below creeps in.  It's not a great pattern by any stretch, but it is fighting tooth and nail to avoid the 1st half of last winter's look ugh

Not for anything, but the OP EC has become Mary (as in quite contrary) day 8-10 with sensible weather.  It kept its streak of fantasy cyber day 9 winter storms going yesterday.  I know the idea was not bad, but close only counts in horseshoes.   I'll call this a pattern flip or reboot because of the EPO switch and as far as the teleconnectiven skill period goes (about day 8 or day 9) it is close to wysiwyg, doesn't look particularly cold, doesn't look particularly warm.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Man that’s a stout -nao on the WEFS

Just plants its roots.  Hopefully it develops and we'll see if the Pac cooperates simultaneously.  A weenie can dream.

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00z Sunday run

GEFS  Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th.  Remaining below normal thru the 17th.  Weekend aftershock more north than on Thursday.  Above normal anomalies arrive on the 18th (two days earlier) with near to above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th.  The back end is up for conjecture, but the front end is reaching modeling skill.

GEPS  Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th.  Remaining below normal thru the 16th.  Above normal anomalies arrive on the 17th (a day later) with above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th.  

EPS  Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peak morning of the 13th.  Remaining below normal thru the weekend (strongest of aftershock for next Friday/Saturday vs other models), then near to above normal 850mb anomalies thru the end of its run on the 24th.

 While all the models outlook a Scandinavian ridge at the end of their outlook, the PV retreats to near Alaska and thwarts any ridge bridge from occurring.  The Aleutian low is either too north (EC), not there (GGEM) or replaced by deep low and trof over Alaska and its gulf (GEFS). 

This morning's NAEFS starts to roll over to warm confidence 11/18-11/25 losing the bitter coldness of this upcoming week. 

 

Today  (00z Wednesday run)

GEFS  Below to near normal 850mb temp anomalies last throughout its run (28th) except for one day wonders on the 15th, 19th & 21st.   This looks to be in response to a more -NAO in its outlook period beyond day 7.

GEPS  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies prevail (except for 15th) into Sunday the 17th, then near to above normal anomalies until Saturday the 23rd. Then anomalies bandy back/forth centered close to near normal through the end of its run on the 28th.  The end of the persistent above normal anomalies are two days earlier than on Sunday.

EPS  850mb Thermal pattern similar to the GEPS except below normal 850mb anomalies arrive a day earlier, on the 22nd, then near or below  thru the end of its run on the 27th.  EPS & GEPS look very vanilla beyond day 10.  The 12z EPS came in colder for Thanksgiving Week.

GEFS return to cold is more stout -NAO driven,  EPS cold is more +PNA/Aleutian low driven,  GEPS -NAO is about as strong as the GEFS, but its more Pacific flow air.  -NAO is never any models strong point,  so I would wait until this gets within day 9 to know confidently.    It is hard to say about the GEFS NAO bias as it has been negative when the NAO has been positive and positive when the NAO has been negative.  So this month it has had a negative bias so far.

This morning's NAEFS 11/21-11/28 is most confident of near normal temperatures, so a cool down (last three days added?) trend. 

 

 

 

 

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On 11/13/2019 at 3:06 PM, Rainshadow said:

00z Sunday run

GEFS  Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th.  Remaining below normal thru the 17th.  Weekend aftershock more north than on Thursday.  Above normal anomalies arrive on the 18th (two days earlier) with near to above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th.  The back end is up for conjecture, but the front end is reaching modeling skill.

GEPS  Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peaks morning of the 13th.  Remaining below normal thru the 16th.  Above normal anomalies arrive on the 17th (a day later) with above normal anomalies persisting through the end of its run on the 25th.  

EPS  Barney II surge of below normal 850mb temp anomalies begins around Noon on the 12th, peak morning of the 13th.  Remaining below normal thru the weekend (strongest of aftershock for next Friday/Saturday vs other models), then near to above normal 850mb anomalies thru the end of its run on the 24th.

 While all the models outlook a Scandinavian ridge at the end of their outlook, the PV retreats to near Alaska and thwarts any ridge bridge from occurring.  The Aleutian low is either too north (EC), not there (GGEM) or replaced by deep low and trof over Alaska and its gulf (GEFS). 

This morning's NAEFS starts to roll over to warm confidence 11/18-11/25 losing the bitter coldness of this upcoming week. 

 

Today  (00z Wednesday run)

GEFS  Below to near normal 850mb temp anomalies last throughout its run (28th) except for one day wonders on the 15th, 19th & 21st.   This looks to be in response to a more -NAO in its outlook period beyond day 7.

GEPS  Below normal 850mb temp anomalies prevail (except for 15th) into Sunday the 17th, then near to above normal anomalies until Saturday the 23rd. Then anomalies bandy back/forth centered close to near normal through the end of its run on the 28th.  The end of the persistent above normal anomalies are two days earlier than on Sunday.

EPS  850mb Thermal pattern similar to the GEPS except below normal 850mb anomalies arrive a day earlier, on the 22nd, then near or below  thru the end of its run on the 27th.  EPS & GEPS look very vanilla beyond day 10.  The 12z EPS came in colder for Thanksgiving Week.

GEFS return to cold is more stout -NAO driven,  EPS cold is more +PNA/Aleutian low driven,  GEPS -NAO is about as strong as the GEFS, but its more Pacific flow air.  -NAO is never any models strong point,  so I would wait until this gets within day 9 to know confidently.    It is hard to say about the GEFS NAO bias as it has been negative when the NAO has been positive and positive when the NAO has been negative.  So this month it has had a negative bias so far.

This morning's NAEFS 11/21-11/28 is most confident of near normal temperatures, so a cool down (last three days added?) trend. 

 

 

 

 

Where do you find EPS beyond hr240?  

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Big cold shift in eps from 0z  just saw this on twitter haven’t dissected h5 but by looking at those changes looks like More pna ridging and nao blocking 

9C1675A0-A437-4E12-A36E-5164D3C8198E.png

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48 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Big cold shift in eps from 0z  just saw this on twitter haven’t dissected h5 but by looking at those changes looks like More pna ridging and nao blocking 

9C1675A0-A437-4E12-A36E-5164D3C8198E.png

 

 

Possibly snow in Mexico?!

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Where do you find EPS beyond hr240?  

On wxbell.  In reality once one gets beyond 240hrs, it’s science fiction often.  I just like to drive myself nuts saying, hey it’s not the same as it was three days ago. Heck the EPS was not the same as it was 12 hours ago.

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27 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

On wxbell.  In reality once one gets beyond 240hrs, it’s science fiction often.  I just like to drive myself nuts saying, hey it’s not the same as it was three days ago. Heck the EPS was not the same as it was 12 hours ago.

Ooo I didn’t think you paid for model data

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ooo I didn’t think you paid for model data

He got a smart phone and learned to send a text message. Now he is paying for model data?! No stopping him now! 

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8 minutes ago, cbelke said:

He got a smart phone and learned to send a text message. Now he is paying for model data?! No stopping him now! 

Yeah I can be wrong on multiple social media platforms at the same time woohoo! :smiley-dance013:

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Would like to see these changes stick for a few runs before getting exciting, but man that was a shift in major hemispheric players from 0z to 12z. More Aleutian low, which really pops the pna out west. Better -nao look too, thats a pretty decent look for some fun and games. Thats a cold flow right out of Canada, combine that with blocking over the top and a nice ridge out west. I said this last week and I'll hammer it on top of Gigi's head, you pop the Aleutian low, forget about trying to put a ridge into the east. The 0z run of the eps did have some signs of below normal hgts but you can see how you put the Aleutian low there how it really pops the pna out west. I think that is a common theme this winter somewhere around the west coast. The sst's say it should be as well as ridging into Alaska. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4899200 (1).gif

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah I can be wrong on multiple social media platforms at the same time woohoo! :smiley-dance013:

There is hope for you yet!!!

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In terms of the stratosphere, I think the gefs are rushing it to quickly. They are the most bullish out of all the models plotted. I have access to euro strat stuff and it's no where near the gefs look by day 10. So I would think as it gets closer it continues to back off. They all do agree though on a strong wave 1 hit to the PV that weakens it greatly. The gefs may be right in the end, but are rushing it IMO

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

pick your ens 

 

 

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5028800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4942400.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5050400.png

Gefs do appear to be rushing the -PNA...here's how the d10+ trended the past 3 days.  Showed similar look 3 days ago as above and has been slowly building that ridge out west.  

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh240_trend (1).gif

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To be frank, the eps seem like the odd man out after that run. Will be interesting to see what they show tonight.  It looks like the big difference between the eps and the other 2 is the handling of the low hgts in siberia/Alaska. EPS have the Aleutian low, while the geps and gefs are displaced much further west, more of a dateline trough. This in turn pushes the ridge out west further offshore and allows more of a -pna. Strictly just using the mjo as a guide, the eps slower speed and wanting to curl into COD (which I don't believe) may be a reason why its could be deepening the trough in the east. As it has this is phase 2 by the end of the period which is a colder phase for the east compared to 3. Like I stated before I like  a cold shot near Thanksgiving. Right now the kelvin wave is flying, which is typical of them. It entered phase 8 today, supposed to slow down a bit in phase 8/1.By the end of the ensemble period we should be near phase 3 entering DEC which would give more merit to the gefs and geps side of things IMO. If we do get a legit -nao, things will be cooler in the east, but I'm not sure I'm buying that deep of a trough eps are showing yet

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As figured,EPS lost the idea from 12z and went more towards the geps and gefs with more low heights in the southwest. Completely backed off the Aleutian low configuration. NAO domain slightly less impressive also. It's not a torch or warm pattern, not saying that but the deep trough it was showing seemed bogus from MJO standpoint. 

 

 ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4942400.png.f34ab1e3abc4d79b1d9f6f68973f5ea1.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4985600.png.9b38e92643190e2bdbf3d4454eb92e3e.png

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2 strong coastal storms on the euro. 2nd is still iffy. First will pound coast this weekend particularly NC+Va.

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13 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

2 strong coastal storms on the euro. 2nd is still iffy. First will pound coast this weekend particularly NC+Va.

big outlier on the mid week storm

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