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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussion, A November That Is November.

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Barney coming directly from Siberia 

EJCK6EMWoAIE1qP.png

Good ol Siberian Express. Old school. Lol.

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So now that we are closing in on mid November, where are headed for the second half of the month? If we look at the current 5 day h5 hgts anomalies from today to Friday. We can see on the map below we have our +pna pushing into the -epo domain then ridge bridge across the top over the pole into Scandinavia. All thise high latitude blocking displaces the cold anomalies that are normally at the pole and relocates it into the mid latitudes. We also have a nice Aleutian low which also teleconnects well to a +pna. All of this basically means there is going to be a nice trough in the east with potentially arctic intrusions with that big -epo, which we have gotten.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3819200.png.f85c6534c3547597a3e5b2eccd1db45f.png

Here is the next 5 days from nov 15th-20th. We still have our Aleutian low, but it's starting to shift out of the Aleutians and build more towards Siberia and into Alaska. Our PNA ridge has shifted westward off the west coast due to the shuffling of the Aleutian low. The big ridge bridge across the top has broken down and we now have low hgts on the north American side of things but still a big Scand ridge. Without the big poleward -epo and properly placed pna ridge, arctic air into the US should be at a minimum.  We should see some Pacific puke start entering the US, specifically the western US/canada into the plains as the ridge out west flattens out a bit in response to the lowering hgts in Alaska. The east will still be under nw flow to start the period but then more zonal to sw flow as the ridge out west retrogrades offshore pulling the trough in the means towards the plains/lakes. Even though there is below normal hgts in the east, the source region is right off the north pacific, so it's not a cold look, nor warm. 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4251200.png.850dcc79c81cea9700c9aa2c82751f96.png

Next is the 10-15 day period so from nov 20 to nov 25th. We still have our big scand ridge that grows even stronger. This is also starting to push into Greenland for an east base -nao look.  We lost the Aleutian low which has moved over Siberia/arctic circle area. The low hgts over this part of the area into Alaska will continue to promote some pacific flow into the US again. The ridge out west continues to be featured off shore mainly which promotes more of a trough into the plains/lakes so not ideal for noreaster developments or snow in this look. In this time period we will have to see how the nao domain starts to materialize as modelling is trying to build something is this timeframe. ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4683200.png.f3a2b7aeef3056f8dca90354bb802274.png

 

MJO currently is coming into phase 6 and will be getting into phase 7 by end of this week, then phase 8 and 1 for next week into the start of Thanksgiving. Phase 6 of the MJO favors zonal flow across the US and phase 7 favors cold push into the plains with a se ridge look. This fits well as to what the eps are starting to show for this weekend and beyond. We start with some PAC flow then as the pna ridge retrogrades westward the main trough axis pulls west as we start getting some se ridge looks. Phase 8 favors cold in the northeast, while phase 1 favors a -pna look.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png.2f47ccb26969d48626d9c01588c938cd.png

Looking at the Wave potential velocity maps, this wave should continue around again through phase 2 and so on. Phase 2 should occur by the end of November which is bias cold in the east but a transition phase.

ewp.gif.43cc5c657c184721068e1ea0ce74ee0e.gif

Looking at the strat we are at the peak of our wave 2 hit that helped in bringing multiple Barneys to the area. The wave 2 hits to the strat look to subside over the next week and we start to get a big wave 1 displacement event of the PV. 

ens_nh-hgtwaves_010hPa_20191110.png.6106edac2872f583ab8da1016e31ce0f.png

The euro by day 10 is just starting to sniff out the wave 1 look while the GEFS are going full bore on this. this is day 10 on the gefs, you can still see the wave 2 look on the temperature anomalies but the Siberian ridging is starting to take control. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-4272800.png.d79a8b8100ff32bd6e838d570d138877.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4272800.png.233fefaec49d14d7145e4f2d05a0b93c.png

By day 15, we have a full on PV displacement off the pole by a significant wave 1 hit as the pv gets displaced to Europegfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-4791200.png.3edafe3f54e388ae257318f6e9415f29.png

The temperature anomalies are getting close to SSW territory here as there is a robust warm signal over the pole.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4791200.png.3f027f96c478fd1855f7e7614dfeecb8.png

Right now we have a strong PV but the wave 2 hits we are seeing followed up by a big wave 1 hit weakens the pv zonal winds big time as it's in a free fall. If we were to follow up this big wave 1 hit up with a good wave 2 hit in December it could be enough to shred the PV at some point in Dec. 

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png.d1cec1477e1135b6885dbc6b2d21a5f7.png

 

So in conclusion, after the Barney shots of cold this week and then a secondary push this weekend we should moderate to around normal, some days a little below some a little above as we get the influence of PAC flow. As the ridge out west backs up offshore that should pull the trough a bit further west, so while it won't be a torch any stronger system will most likely cut to our west as we get a bit of se ridge in response to where the trough is. I think we may get another shot of colder air just prior to Thanksgiving or right around there in response to where the MJO goes. Strat induced effects to the weather I think will remain quite low and the pattern will be more controlled by the MJO. Any strat impacts I think will be more towards late Thanksgiving and start of December depending on how/if that wave 1 hit develops. One other wild card which may also be influenced by the strat would be in the nao domain. Have to start watching this once we get past Nov 20th as that big scand ridge may try and retrograde a bit into Greenland and also how the strat displacement evolves as well. 

 

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52 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

So now that we are closing in on mid November, where are headed for the second half of the month? If we look at the current 5 day h5 hgts anomalies from today to Friday. We can see on the map below we have our +pna pushing into the -epo domain then ridge bridge across the top over the pole into Scandinavia. All thise high latitude blocking displaces the cold anomalies that are normally at the pole and relocates it into the mid latitudes. We also have a nice Aleutian low which also teleconnects well to a +pna. All of this basically means there is going to be a nice trough in the east with potentially arctic intrusions with that big -epo, which we have gotten.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-3819200.png.f85c6534c3547597a3e5b2eccd1db45f.png

Here is the next 5 days from nov 15th-20th. We still have our Aleutian low, but it's starting to shift out of the Aleutians and build more towards Siberia and into Alaska. Our PNA ridge has shifted westward off the west coast due to the shuffling of the Aleutian low. The big ridge bridge across the top has broken down and we now have low hgts on the north American side of things but still a big Scand ridge. Without the big poleward -epo and properly placed pna ridge, arctic air into the US should be at a minimum.  We should see some Pacific puke start entering the US, specifically the western US/canada into the plains as the ridge out west flattens out a bit in response to the lowering hgts in Alaska. The east will still be under nw flow to start the period but then more zonal to sw flow as the ridge out west retrogrades offshore pulling the trough in the means towards the plains/lakes. Even though there is below normal hgts in the east, the source region is right off the north pacific, so it's not a cold look, nor warm. 

 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4251200.png.850dcc79c81cea9700c9aa2c82751f96.png

Next is the 10-15 day period so from nov 20 to nov 25th. We still have our big scand ridge that grows even stronger. This is also starting to push into Greenland for an east base -nao look.  We lost the Aleutian low which has moved over Siberia/arctic circle area. The low hgts over this part of the area into Alaska will continue to promote some pacific flow into the US again. The ridge out west continues to be featured off shore mainly which promotes more of a trough into the plains/lakes so not ideal for noreaster developments or snow in this look. In this time period we will have to see how the nao domain starts to materialize as modelling is trying to build something is this timeframe. ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-4683200.png.f3a2b7aeef3056f8dca90354bb802274.png

 

MJO currently is coming into phase 6 and will be getting into phase 7 by end of this week, then phase 8 and 1 for next week into the start of Thanksgiving. Phase 6 of the MJO favors zonal flow across the US and phase 7 favors cold push into the plains with a se ridge look. This fits well as to what the eps are starting to show for this weekend and beyond. We start with some PAC flow then as the pna ridge retrogrades westward the main trough axis pulls west as we start getting some se ridge looks. Phase 8 favors cold in the northeast, while phase 1 favors a -pna look.

twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png.2f47ccb26969d48626d9c01588c938cd.png

Looking at the Wave potential velocity maps, this wave should continue around again through phase 2 and so on. Phase 2 should occur by the end of November which is bias cold in the east but a transition phase.

ewp.gif.43cc5c657c184721068e1ea0ce74ee0e.gif

Looking at the strat we are at the peak of our wave 2 hit that helped in bringing multiple Barneys to the area. The wave 2 hits to the strat look to subside over the next week and we start to get a big wave 1 displacement event of the PV. 

ens_nh-hgtwaves_010hPa_20191110.png.6106edac2872f583ab8da1016e31ce0f.png

The euro by day 10 is just starting to sniff out the wave 1 look while the GEFS are going full bore on this. this is day 10 on the gefs, you can still see the wave 2 look on the temperature anomalies but the Siberian ridging is starting to take control. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-4272800.png.d79a8b8100ff32bd6e838d570d138877.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4272800.png.233fefaec49d14d7145e4f2d05a0b93c.png

By day 15, we have a full on PV displacement off the pole by a significant wave 1 hit as the pv gets displaced to Europegfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-4791200.png.3edafe3f54e388ae257318f6e9415f29.png

The temperature anomalies are getting close to SSW territory here as there is a robust warm signal over the pole.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4791200.png.3f027f96c478fd1855f7e7614dfeecb8.png

Right now we have a strong PV but the wave 2 hits we are seeing followed up by a big wave 1 hit weakens the pv zonal winds big time as it's in a free fall. If we were to follow up this big wave 1 hit up with a good wave 2 hit in December it could be enough to shred the PV at some point in Dec. 

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png.d1cec1477e1135b6885dbc6b2d21a5f7.png

 

So in conclusion, after the Barney shots of cold this week and then a secondary push this weekend we should moderate to around normal, some days a little below some a little above as we get the influence of PAC flow. As the ridge out west backs up offshore that should pull the trough a bit further west, so while it won't be a torch any stronger system will most likely cut to our west as we get a bit of se ridge in response to where the trough is. I think we may get another shot of colder air just prior to Thanksgiving or right around there in response to where the MJO goes. Strat induced effects to the weather I think will remain quite low and the pattern will be more controlled by the MJO. Any strat impacts I think will be more towards late Thanksgiving and start of December depending on how/if that wave 1 hit develops. One other wild card which may also be influenced by the strat would be in the nao domain. Have to start watching this once we get past Nov 20th as that big scand ridge may try and retrograde a bit into Greenland and also how the strat displacement evolves as well. 

 

Awesome post thank you 💪

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On 11/5/2019 at 7:57 AM, Rainshadow said:

And here we go.  The 33F GEFS high for Friday is now 39F (I'd go low 40s for the afternoon high, there might be a 1201 am high for the calendar day).   Now the models have switched their thermal wagons to the next great Barney after Veterans Day.  The coldest day will come close to fruition, the 06z GFS run of 128 consecutive hours of sub 528 thicknesses is garbage. 

 The models are excellent with the thermal patterns within about 8 or 9 days (coincidental with the start of teleconnection skill).  Gone are the days of cold/heat sneaking up on us as there will be too extreme runs shortly after day 8 or 9.  In the warm season too hot, in the cold season too cold.  The ensembles dont help with duration because their timing is off and it is easier for colder (warmer) solutions to carry excess weight and skew the averages/duration in the cold season/warm season especially if the NAO is positive (cold air doesn't get trapped).

Friday's PHL high was 42F and exactly 6 days later the run of consecutive hours of sub 528 thicknesses on the GFS is now 18 hours.   

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Just to add on some things here. Like Tom said, we should moderate a bit by 2nd half November. 
 

We have to watch the source region of Canada. 
 

 By days 10-15, Canada loses its fresh arctic intrusions, and really starts to moderate. I believe we saw this last December as well. This probably carries over into December. We should temper expectations, even if we see a -NAO develop later on. Not saying we torch, but prospects of fresh arctic air masses clashing with southern stream disturbances become less than favorable. 

2E310A73-F5D2-4717-AD10-D2FCF50E0711.png

279A747A-979C-482D-BB8C-34FDFDEB9F5A.png

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49 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Just to add on some things here. Like Tom said, we should moderate a bit by 2nd half November. 
 

We have to watch the source region of Canada. 
 

 By days 10-15, Canada loses its fresh arctic intrusions, and really starts to moderate. I believe we saw this last December as well. This probably carries over into December. We should temper expectations, even if we see a -NAO develop later on. Not saying we torch, but prospects of fresh arctic air masses clashing with southern stream disturbances become less than favorable. 

 

 

Yea there is going to be some pac flow into western Canada as that Aleutian low moves out a favorable area next week or so. Personally I don't think it's a permanent feature. SST just tell me there wants to be more of ridge out somewhere between alaska and the west coast. I think the bigger issue for December isn't pac flow but more of a -pna esp with where the mjo is headed 

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December looks troubling to me honestly. You already have the canonical nino that generally leans warm for the east. Throw a robust mjo going through torch phases and it may not be good. The unknown variables are nao domain and what happens in the strat which can alter everything

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On 10/31/2019 at 7:17 AM, tombo82685 said:

After this cold shot I would look for the pattern to flip to more of a zonal flow look by mid month or around there as we get into phase 6 of the mjo. Also the big poleward Alaskan ridge retrogrades and the tpv sweep that brings the cold into the area flips the nao around to positive. Would then expect a colder return to start in the plains that comes east for last week of Nov or start of December as the mjo swings around into colder phases. Mjo right now is in phase 3/4 currently heading to 5 by end of next week. By the end of 2nd full week of Nov should be in phase 6. Also have to see what occurs in the stratosphere as well. Any wave 1/2 hits and any warm phases of mjo can be counteracted. 

Zonal flow call back on Halloween for Mid month looks to pan out decently. Obviously got a bit colder than I thought and heck we all thought with wave 2 hits and how robust that poleward -epo got

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Zonal flow call back on Halloween for Mid month looks to pan out decently. Obviously got a bit colder than I thought and heck we all thought with wave 2 hits and how robust that poleward -epo got

This is one pattern progression that appeared beyond week 2 and held its own.  Granted we pretty much exhausted the -epo cold air with this second shot anyway.  I know the enso is not showing it, but this month has acted like a nino November, there are a number of nino Novembers that have been cold (even dud winter 1997-98).  It'd be a feat for November to dig out of this climo hole to be above normal for the month.

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

December looks troubling to me honestly. You already have the canonical nino that generally leans warm for the east. Throw a robust mjo going through torch phases and it may not be good. The unknown variables are nao domain and what happens in the strat which can alter everything

I don’t understand why everyone thinks the MJO is going into the torch phases for December. The gefs is the o it guidance showing it possibly going there but the subsistence over the eastern Indian Ocean may really hamper the torch phases. JMHO

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1 hour ago, daniel said:

I don’t understand why everyone thinks the MJO is going into the torch phases for December. The gefs is the o it guidance showing it possibly going there but the subsistence over the eastern Indian Ocean may really hamper the torch phases. JMHO

I may be wrong, who knows, but if you're going off these maps, be careful they have strong bias in week 2 to pull everything into the COD. To me its looks like the convection should make it around to warm phases for first part of December

 

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

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Also to note, this isn't a true MJO wave, this is a kelvin wave. Can see it being pictured here and also the speed is kind of giving it away too as it's flying right now through phases.

chi200.cfs.eqtr.png

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Gotta see how this progresses, should have a good idea if the gefs are on crack or not once we approach Thanksgiving week. The wave 1 displacement of the pv being shown by them is tremendous. So much so, it really kicks the pv in the but. We go from record strong to very weak with some members starting to get down towards wind reversal. This could have big implications for late december into January if this does occur. You can see the gefs continue by day 16 to just show a ton of warmth right over the pole. 

Big wave 1 hit coming, as wave 2 falls of

 

ens_nh-hgtwaves_010hPa_20191111.png.4a62272961738aa99a2a5708d6c7a7b7.png

 

heres the  temp anomalies off gefs for strat. This all comes from robust ridging in Siberia, (low sea ice+above normal snow cover response?) gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4294400.png.a6be1c3c301f9fa03bb0699d34496974.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4640000.png.591fd0ed29288805daf3f679823a2f36.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4899200.png.04462aab09e35f94f75929aaa742c7a3.png

 

Then we can see the response to the zonal winds of the pv just fall off the cliff

u_60N_10hpa_gefs.png.6651f185c22b0bac6b5bdc14574304ba.png

 

 

 

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Would not shock me if we get a SSW in December esp if we get an amplified mjo through phases 4-6. Seems like last year that was the trigger that just started things and looking in the past, seems like there is some correlation to when the MJO goes through IO into phases 3-5 it starts the process in years where the PV is susceptible to a ssw

I can only go back to 1989 up to 2012 in terms of looking at MJO plots, I didn't look at any SSW that occurred in  early March as it's impacts wouldn't of mattered. 

Since 89 we had a SSW in 89, 95, 01,04, 06, 08, 09, 10,13,18,19. I don't have the data for 13,18,19 but I do know last year had a strongly amped phase 4/5 mjo in later Dec

Out of all those dates, looks like 95 and 2010 were  the only one to not have an mjo pass in those phases

we start with 89, SSW mid feb, we get an mjo pass in phase 4/5 late feb.

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_1989.gif.3832675549210267ad323094b40d2c83.gif

1989_JFM.png.c30392d4346de92d20f7445820901fec.png

01 ssw in mid feb, mjo phases 4/5 late jan into early feb

 time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2001.gif.f3206ea589e31b6787f3b4b153a0c441.gif

2001_JFM.png.979a1b95e5e14426afb2cad8c0fbf2a0.png

04, ssw in early jan, mjo passes phases 4/5 in mid dec

 time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2004.gif.1bb890cba2e3f1b41e7c59b4240045d9.gif

2003_OND.png.db4e34d0e39850309f0dbc92b802c17c.png

06, ssw in later jan, mjo passes 4/5 in mid jan

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2006.gif.3dabc6ab68f87e03cf2f64d3759ac718.gif

2006_JFM.png.c49e63ed00f79fa2ea106cfa03713b89.png

08 ssw in mid to late feb, mjo passes phases 4/5 in early feb

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2008.gif.369919f66fb6cf4e44599ee6bdaee3c6.gif

2008_JFM.png.7ed3eed0350a0e1805421b8a4b2e34b0.png

09, ssw in late jan, mjo passes 4/5 in late jan

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2009.gif.b6915abf1fce7fa920e4618e7e0b2387.gif

2009_JFM.png.aeff8ecba2bcc2e62a293e74b8e2c2a3.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

time_pres_UGRD_MEAN_ALL_NH_2010.gif

2010_JFM.png

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11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Would not shock me if we get a SSW in December esp if we get an amplified mjo through phases 4-6. Seems like last year that was the trigger that just started things and looking in the past, seems like there is some correlation to when the MJO goes through IO into phases 3-5 it starts the process in years where the PV is susceptible to a ssw

I can only go back to 1989 up to 2012 in terms of looking at MJO plots, I didn't look at any SSW that occurred in  early March as it's impacts wouldn't of mattered. 

Since 89 we had a SSW in 89, 95, 01,04, 06, 08, 09, 10,13,18,19. I don't have the data for 13,18,19 but I do know last year had a strongly amped phase 4/5 mjo in later Dec

Out of all those dates, looks like 95 and 2010 were  the only one to not have an mjo pass in those phases

we start with 89, SSW mid feb, we get an mjo pass in phase 4/5 late feb.1 ssw in mid feb, mjo phases 4/5 late jan into early feb

 

Nice post! Per this paper, roughly a month between MJO3 and SSW.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144

 

mjossw.png

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Global temps this November (2018 includes gfs forecast for next 7 days) similar to last year. Will rest of winter follow?

nov2019.png

nov2018.png

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4 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Global temps this November (2018 includes gfs forecast for next 7 days) similar to last year. Will rest of winter follow?

 

 

lol, gulp

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Would not shock me if we get a SSW in December esp if we get an amplified mjo through phases 4-6. Seems like last year that was the trigger that just started things and looking in the past, seems like there is some correlation to when the MJO goes through IO into phases 3-5 it starts the process in years where the PV is susceptible to a ssw

I can only go back to 1989 up to 2012 in terms of looking at MJO plots, I didn't look at any SSW that occurred in  early March as it's impacts wouldn't of mattered. 

Since 89 we had a SSW in 89, 95, 01,04, 06, 08, 09, 10,13,18,19. I don't have the data for 13,18,19 but I do know last year had a strongly amped phase 4/5 mjo in later Dec

Out of all those dates, looks like 95 and 2010 were  the only one to not have an mjo pass in those phases

we start with 89, SSW mid feb, we get an mjo pass in phase 4/5 late feb.

 

Nice post said the figs never.

It does make sense given you probably get impacts from the convection extending both northward and upward.   Here are those recent year MJO(s):

 

1.JPG

1a.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

4.JPG

At least the GEFS has the GGEM going along with this.  Don't know if that is a good or bad thing.  I would guess the EPS would be more subdued with wave 1 only because it is taking the MJO into the COD.

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24 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Nice post said the figs never.

It does make sense given you probably get impacts from the convection extending both northward and upward.   Here are those recent year MJO(s):

 

1.JPG

1a.JPG

2.JPG

3.JPG

4.JPG

At least the GEFS has the GGEM going along with this.  Don't know if that is a good or bad thing.  I would guess the EPS would be more subdued with wave 1 only because it is taking the MJO into the COD.

That COD I'm selling on unless its recognizing break down of kelvin wave then refires a legit mjo wave towards phase 4 or so. But I think this waves continues to go

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

That COD I'm selling on unless its recognizing break down of kelvin wave then refires a legit mjo wave towards phase 4 or so. But I think this waves continues to go

Obvious COD bias with the models and MJO(s).

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Euro brings enough of a PNA spike in the long range to dump some additional below average 850's.   EPO is flipping to positive and Pac influence seems inevitable.  Once that ridge rolls over I see nothing stopping the Pac firehose from blasting the Conus, hope I'm wrong.  Could the Aleutian low keep pumping a ridge out ahead to keep the Pac at bay?  I just don't see any cross Polar possibilities with that AO/EPO setup

ecmwf_z500a_namer_fh168-240.gif

ecmwf_T850a_namer_fh168-240.gif

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4 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Euro brings enough of a PNA spike in the long range to dump some additional below average 850's.   EPO is flipping to positive and Pac influence seems inevitable.  Once that ridge rolls over I see nothing stopping the Pac firehose from blasting the Conus, hope I'm wrong.  Could the Aleutian low keep pumping a ridge out ahead to keep the Pac at bay?  I just don't see any cross Polar possibilities with that AO/EPO setup

 

 

The pac firehose is going to occur, but it won't be a torch here. I'm still thinking we get another brief cool period around Thanksgiving period

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The 10-15 day period looks interesting on the EPS, I would say more middle to later part of this period. Granted we are way out here, so this will change. Looking at it right now it's a pretty decent setup for a stormy maybe wintry storm for someone in the east. My only concern would be cold air availability. But we have a split flow in the jet, northern stream bringing the cold and southern jet bringing the disturbances. You can also see we have a legit -nao here as well as 50/50 low to a degree. Can see the below normal hgts in the south indicating a disturbance tracking out of the southwest.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4726400.png.5e741edcb0b57a8f044b817730357ed7.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

The 10-15 day period looks interesting on the EPS, I would say more middle to later part of this period. Granted we are way out here, so this will change. Looking at it right now it's a pretty decent setup for a stormy maybe wintry storm for someone in the east. My only concern would be cold air availability. But we have a split flow in the jet, northern stream bringing the cold and southern jet bringing the disturbances. You can also see we have a legit -nao here as well as 50/50 low to a degree. Can see the below normal hgts in the south indicating a disturbance tracking out of the southwest.ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-4726400.png.5e741edcb0b57a8f044b817730357ed7.png

I'll have to start monitoring the D+8 composite analogs.

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