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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussion, A November That Is November.

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Can't say I disagree with CPC with the way recent Septembers have gone and our bath water ocean temps. 

off14_temp.gif.685bf1cfe98499423e73363afe15aaee.gif

 

Anyway MJO wise looks like phase 1 or 2 to start the month; correlation not the best, but 2 is not a warm phase.

combined_image.png.bbc51c562bc7f0c89540d7668bdab7a3.png

Welcome to fall:

gfs-ens_z500a_us_62.png.6c81b23cf40fe8fd9b8f65bd38ad8652.png

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I suppose nearby anomalies could be worse.  Outside of the Gulf, the tropics look closer to normal.

sst.daily_anom.gif.530c1930a3f8c65ff2e320ea09c657d4.gif

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I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond.  Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish.  Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land.  Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away.

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png.62f4dbc4a9a87028c80011e1e1140802.pnggfs-ens_T850a_us_42.png.8c1c1cf86d9258fadb672b4ea121a36a.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

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13 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond.  Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish.  Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land.  Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away.

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png.62f4dbc4a9a87028c80011e1e1140802.pnggfs-ens_T850a_us_42.png.8c1c1cf86d9258fadb672b4ea121a36a.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

Forget where I wrote it but first ten days of September should verify normal to below. Mjo in cooler phases during that period. 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Forget where I wrote it but first ten days of September should verify normal to below. Mjo in cooler phases during that period. 

It has been the recent M.O. of a closer to normal first half and warmer than normal second half of months. 

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On 8/22/2019 at 7:10 AM, Rainshadow said:

I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond.  Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish.  Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land.  Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away.

gfs-ens_T850a_us_65.png.62f4dbc4a9a87028c80011e1e1140802.pnggfs-ens_T850a_us_42.png.8c1c1cf86d9258fadb672b4ea121a36a.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

Thermally it has to get within day 8 or so to keep the legs:

 

index.gif

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21 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

index.gif.41421cbfb78f2a30411145a00c1ec1a5.gif

Steady as she goes.   Could make for good beach weather Labor Day weekend before that front rolls through

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Steady as she goes.   Could make for good beach weather Labor Day weekend before that front rolls through

Barney got lurched westward last night.  Tom talks about the ensembles being influenced too much by the operational or control.  Just from a confidence stand point going forward where it matters more, I'd like to see a Omaha moment and not have it go east tomorrow night.

index.gif.491c1b070451f2a0f2b5a48b4a209933.gif

The Sunday evening part not as slow.  Looks like Barney drank a 5 hour energy for this run.

index2.gif.886b9aec24a157625bf38892cd250694.gif

 

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Barney May get delayed, but he will never be denied 

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Barney May get delayed, but he will never be denied 

Time soon to start modulating this new GFS.  Not sure if "the fix" did much to correct the already documented even more progressive bias.  We know the Euro can be slow.  So here is question #1:

The GFS is_____?

A)  Too fast

B )  Just right

C)  Aiming To Stay Ahead Of The JMA

gfs_T850a_us_29.png.0ed04a38b4baa3ab039288eb44f943a1.png

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

gem_T850a_us_29.png

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All I see is Barney maturing in the plains. Grazing in the fields getting his protein in before he lays the smack down on the figs 

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15 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Time soon to start modulating this new GFS.  Not sure if "the fix" did much to correct the already documented even more progressive bias.  We know the Euro can be slow.  So here is question #1:

The GFS is_____?

A)  Too fast

B )  Just right

C)  Aiming To Stay Ahead Of The JMA

gfs_T850a_us_29.png.0ed04a38b4baa3ab039288eb44f943a1.png

ecmwf_T850a_us_8.png

gem_T850a_us_29.png

Gfs to fast. Mjo supports a warm period but cool shot will not be denied 

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Barney losing some of his farther south CONUS fangs.   GFS has not and would be an ugly Sunday & Labor Day because of rain.

 

index.gif

index2.gif

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Barney losing some of his farther south CONUS fangs.   GFS has not and would be an ugly Sunday & Labor Day because of rain.

 

 

 

We won't get Barney here, doesn't support that depth of trough on the east coast the pattern. This has the look of into southern plains then kind of scoots north of us but we get some of it. Euro was pretty ugly for Sunday and Labor Day as well. 

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I don’t want to jinx it, but seeing these booming HP’S sprawling down from  Canada means we might actually have a early fall!?!?or seasonable. Still think we may have to contend with a random 90’s day or 2... but

A769BC14-4331-4F1C-ABC3-B7AE703884F0.gif

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2 hours ago, irishbri74 said:

I don’t want to jinx it, but seeing these booming HP’S sprawling down from  Canada means we might actually have a early fall!?!?or seasonable. Still think we may have to contend with a random 90’s day or 2... but

A769BC14-4331-4F1C-ABC3-B7AE703884F0.gif

Its tempting to believe a genuine early fall could occur.  Long term modeling has been predominantly favoring east coast troughing for several weeks.  Ready for my first night in the 40's

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11 hours ago, susqushawn said:

Its tempting to believe a genuine early fall could occur.  Long term modeling has been predominantly favoring east coast troughing for several weeks.  Ready for my first night in the 40's

Having big ol' highs build into southeast Canada used to be more of a September staple around here.  The MJO phases still favor cooler (than normal) weather for the first half of the month and if still the driver warmer (than normal) weather during the second half.  It wouldn't be an awful outcome negating 90s early which have been there for more than the last several Septembers and then have some 80s continue thru the month.

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On 8/22/2019 at 7:10 AM, Rainshadow said:

I was responding to Tom how the GEFS can't sniff cooler periods for us in the great beyond.  Granted can't verify a forecast with a forecast, but the trend for the start of September is Septemberish.  Have to watch if this goes more south than east and we are getting into la la land.  Regardless a much cooler look for the start of September than last year where 90s were just a couple of more days away.

 

I guess all things relative, it is still cooler looking than the start of last September, but the ensembles have trended toward at or above normal for Labor Day week.

index.gif.325ae00e5754b28b357cfad0927b65d7.gif

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This is still beyond lock down time, but after Dorian and its attending ridge to its north, the EPS trends cooler than normal from next Thursday onward.  Tom likes his 90s, so their best shot at it is this Friday and again next Wednesday,.

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