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Rainshadow

August 17th Til..... Yet Another Run of 90s On The Docket

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Well this time it is the strength of the Bermuda High that determines how long it lasts once the 90s probably arrive starting on Saturday the 17th.  The Euro has the strongest and gets progressively hotter thru the end of its run.  The UKMET in its usual and customary spot is a compromise and includes some tropical(?) system forming on the old front and entering Virginia. Other models are faster with relief next week.  The Euro usually does better with Bermuda ridges, but here I am hoping it is doing its usual too slow/too amplified bias past day 7.

 

 

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Looking for an end before it even starts, last night's (vs prev night) Euro came closer to the other modeling consensus of a decent CFP around Wednesdayish.  UKMET looks close to the Euro.  It dropped the off NC tropical system, but does pass some wave (with all that pcpn) thru Florida.

 

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23 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Looking for an end before it even starts, last night's (vs prev night) Euro came closer to the other modeling consensus of a decent CFP around Wednesdayish.  UKMET looks close to the Euro.  It dropped the off NC tropical system, but does pass some wave (with all that pcpn) thru Florida.

 

 

 

Thermally speaking, ukmet is around 90. Hoping euro with its 94/95 for sunday is overcooking it

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22 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Thermally speaking, ukmet is around 90. Hoping euro with its 94/95 for sunday is overcooking it

Based on the GFS predicted 850(s), mid 90s look doable and with the slowing of the cfp, Wednesday may join the 90s club. No wind GFS has mid 90s tomorrow; nevertheless 90 looks likely.

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1 minute ago, Rainshadow said:

Based on the GFS predicted 850(s), mid 90s look doable and with the slowing of the cfp, Wednesday may join the 90s club. No wind GFS has mid 90s tomorrow; nevertheless 90 looks likely.

Well euro was a bit over cooked. Came back down to 92-93 and I’ll take the under on mid 90s tomorrow on gfs 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Well euro was a bit over cooked. Came back down to 92-93 and I’ll take the under on mid 90s tomorrow on gfs 

The Euro for the following weekend looks scrumptious, even if we add 5F to it.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

The Euro for the following weekend looks scrumptious, even if we add 5F to it.

you will like the 6z gfs even better with 100 for Monday with 19c 850s lol

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

you will like the 6z gfs even better with 100 for Monday with 19c 850s lol

Probably also has it raining with 4% sky cover.

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euro continuing to come down to earth from that mid 94/96 sunday/monday combo. Now 91 and 93. Still sucks, but better than mid to possibly upper 90s. Wonder if leftover cloud cover from storms in central PA cloud us up in the AM a decent bit then some storm chances in afternoon keep temps in check in upper 80s to low 90s

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9 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro continuing to come down to earth from that mid 94/96 sunday/monday combo. Now 91 and 93. Still sucks, but better than mid to possibly upper 90s. Wonder if leftover cloud cover from storms in central PA cloud us up in the AM a decent bit then some storm chances in afternoon keep temps in check in upper 80s to low 90s

euro down again, upper 80s to low 90s as it's sniffing out some afternoon convection and clouds for Sunday. Monday and tuesday look to support mid 90s

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro down again, upper 80s to low 90s as it's sniffing out some afternoon convection and clouds for Sunday. Monday and tuesday look to support mid 90s

Nothing can sniff out convection like the current GFS:

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This was a"great" GFS run, more mid 90s outlooked last week of August.

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

euro down again, upper 80s to low 90s as it's sniffing out some afternoon convection and clouds for Sunday. Monday and tuesday look to support mid 90s

PHL getting to 88F yesterday was disturbing in this regime.  My WAG going forward starting today are 90/92/94/95/93/89. 

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

PHL getting to 88F yesterday was disturbing in this regime.  My WAG going forward starting today are 90/92/94/95/93/89. 

That looks good to me. I was commenting on that one euro run that was spitting out a 95 for Sunday, over cooked imo

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

That looks good to me. I was commenting on that one euro run that was spitting out a 95 for Sunday, over cooked imo

I think this current GFS run (12z Saturday) is going to have 18 consecutive days of highs in the 90s for its 16 day run.

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I think this current GFS run (12z Saturday) is going to have 18 consecutive days of highs in the 90s for its 16 day run.

Going to be tough, but I'll take the under

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47 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Going to be tough, but I'll take the under

In reality it was only the first 15 days of the 16 day run:  92, 93, 94, 96, 93, 93, 91, 93, 96, 92,  91, 92, 93, 93, 90.  Still want to take the under?:unsure2:

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

In reality it was only the first 15 days of the 16 day run:  92, 93, 94, 96, 93, 93, 91, 93, 96, 92,  91, 92, 93, 93, 90.  Still want to take the under?:unsure2:

even more so now

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

even more so now

Well the GFS is on an island come day 5/6 with a more concentrated closed low with very little relief for our latitude, while all of the other models (including the legacy GFS I might add) give us humidity relief on Thursday and a thermal relief to end the week.

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