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susqushawn

8/13 Double Barrel Risk Of YAWN

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Maybe your latitude, but places farther south are still under the proverbial gun.

Agreed. I'm not saying I'm out of the woods here, nor is anyone else. I was just noticing  the low tracking further South on most of the models and Tom was saying anything South of the track could be severe. I'm just going out on a limb (and hang myself) by saying the track is further South and the severity appears a bit more scattered.  :ohmy:

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5 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Agreed. I'm not saying I'm out of the woods here, nor is anyone else. I was just noticing  the low tracking further South on most of the models and Tom was saying anything South of the track could be severe. I'm just going out on a limb (and hang myself) by saying the track is further South and the severity appears a bit more scattered.  :ohmy:

Yup, you gotta be south of low track or you get stuck in cloud debris. South of town probably best chance as of right now. Also wonder about flood threat in the watch area if we keep most of storms south of that area.  Along and just north of storm track more stratiform rain 

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Anyways, 18z euro keeps most activity south of town. Also shows some morning shower/storm threat. 

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Going on gut and gauging the ever reliable bubble-ometer, I see plenty of reasons to cliff jump tomorrow while we're socked in with cloud cover but for completely unscientific reasons I do believe berks south gets spanked tomorrow. Not all of us, but I don't see a categorical whiff to the south.  Game on for this weenie.

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Spc takes enhanced away and pushes slight even south of philly now AIT

Just like December's snowstorm.  Enjoy Richmond.  Quite a shift in 1 day.  

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30 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Just like December's snowstorm.  Enjoy Richmond.  Quite a shift in 1 day.  

Like I said to Chris a couple days ago, gotta follow track of low pressure. If you're south of it, best shot of severe. It was pretty clear yesterday afternoon IMO that severe threat for city north was greatly reduced due to low track continued being pushed further south. Can't tap into warm sector

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5 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I just can’t stop yawning 

It would be nice to yawn for once here.

It is all convection, so a pretty large caveat and nothing new about how this new GFS is a constant qpf outlier.

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4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

It would be nice to yawn for once here.

It is all convection, so a pretty large caveat and nothing new about how this new GFS is a constant qpf outlier.

454545.JPG.a85c2501f9f8bdc4fddc9546e38a3e8f.JPG

Should be a good swath of rain this evening but I’m favoring south of tpk and esp south of the city 

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

Should be a good swath of rain this evening but I’m favoring south of tpk and esp south of the city 

The trend is your friend. 

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6 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The trend is your friend. 

No it isn’t, I want rain. My yard looks like the figs in mid January 

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23 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

No it isn’t, I want rain. My yard looks like the figs in mid January 

Ditto 

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36 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

No it isn’t, I want rain. My yard looks like the figs in mid January 

According to the GFS you are entering the period in which you will get measurable in 30 out of the next 36 hours, what could possibly go wrong?:what::chin:

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Surprised they still have flood watch up. I would push that south but not sure if flash flood guidance is low south of town 

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Surprised they still have flood watch up. I would push that south but not sure if flash flood guidance is low south of town 

Better draining soil.  Lol thread title change.

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I'm tired of cutting the grass and driving in crazy hard rain, so I'm not going to complain. Looks like Philadelphia is barely even in the Marginal Risk now and the Slight Risk was pushed even further south.

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