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Rainshadow

The Work Week (and Saturday?) Of 6/24, Summer Arrives

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Well one can't keep a good 90 down forever.  A rather lame CFP on Tuesday sets us up for a warm/hot stretch until the next CFP on the weekend. Heat ridge forecast to position itself in the southern Rockies gives us a salvo in the process.  The OP EC was a hot one, so don't know how much it pulled the EPS other than it did. We could threaten 90 on Tue & Wed and then have "better" chances second half of the week. Tue CFP pcpn looks rather typical and the end of the week pcpn chances not worth typing about now.

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Glad to hear we are "+" a couple of inches of rain compared to this time last year. Mosquito's are thriving right now. Good for them.

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4 hours ago, cbelke said:

Glad to hear we are "+" a couple of inches of rain compared to this time last year. Mosquito's are thriving right now. Good for them.

Are you glad on TTidbits the new GFS has 6 consecutive days of 90 plus highs for us starting Tuesday and on four of those days we manage to be hotter than both BWI & DCA?

Joking aside, I don't get why TTidbits runs hotter than other site with GFS 2M temps (Pivotal, EMC, Meteostar all lower).  It makes a poor forecast situation worse.  

Congrats PHL on being the hottest place in the entire Northeast on Wednesday. :rolleyes:

 

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I like the 10 degree difference between rdg/abe and philly. Not gonna happen. 

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Are you glad on TTidbits the new GFS has 6 consecutive days of 90 plus highs for us starting Tuesday and on four of those days we manage to be hotter than both BWI & DCA?

Joking aside, I don't get why TTidbits runs hotter than other site with GFS 2M temps (Pivotal, EMC, Meteostar all lower).  It makes a poor forecast situation worse.  

Congrats PHL on being the hottest place in the entire Northeast on Wednesday. :rolleyes:

 

 

 

the psu ewall site supports tidbits with 94-96

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

the psu ewall site supports tidbits with 94-96


A process at both sides (or the modeling files themselves) is amiss or we just moved to Venus:

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Meteostar has 92F which at least makes some consistency with an 850/925mb prediction of 16/23. This is a by product of the model not mixing the air mass enough.  Yeah the whole air mass could verify hotter in reality, but a 16/23 is not going to give you a 97, not this soggy year anyway.

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Just now, Rainshadow said:


A process at both sides (or the modeling files themselves) is amiss or we just moved to Venus:

Meteostar has 92F which at least makes some consistency with an 850/925mb prediction of 16/23. This is a by product of the model not mixing the air mass enough.  Yeah the whole air mass could verify hotter in reality, but a 16/23 is not going to give you a 97.

Yea I'm not saying the mid to upper 90s are correct just stating that e wall shows the same. 

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16 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Are you glad on TTidbits the new GFS has 6 consecutive days of 90 plus highs for us starting Tuesday and on four of those days we manage to be hotter than both BWI & DCA?

Joking aside, I don't get why TTidbits runs hotter than other site with GFS 2M temps (Pivotal, EMC, Meteostar all lower).  It makes a poor forecast situation worse.  

Congrats PHL on being the hottest place in the entire Northeast on Wednesday. :rolleyes:

 

 

 

Aren't they getting the same data sets? Why are they so different?

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euro supports mid to upper 90s later next week. eps a bit tamer with low 90s. Still ugly either way you put it. 

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea I'm not saying the mid to upper 90s are correct just stating that e wall shows the same. 

Oh I know.  An ugly air mass doesn't need an uglier boost.

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6 hours ago, cbelke said:

Aren't they getting the data sets? Why are they so different?

I honestly don't know.

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Euro temps support 90 plus Tuesday through Friday. Brings a cold front through Saturday. Op euro was cooler, mid 80s, eps would support low 90s. Both have a nice Sunday temp wise behind cool shot. 

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17 hours ago, cbelke said:

Aren't they getting the same data sets? Why are they so different?

No I don't miss the legacy GFS.  :unsure2:

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Euro temps support 90 plus Tuesday through Friday. Brings a cold front through Saturday. Op euro was cooler, mid 80s, eps would support low 90s. Both have a nice Sunday temp wise behind cool shot. 

I know you are saying what it is saying, know what I am saying? :blink2:  Semantical being an 89 vs 90 but Tuesday/Wednesday could fall short pending the timing of clouds/pcpn for Tuesday and how much (cough) cooler air is left aloft for Wednesday.  GFS wants to muster some storms with trof on Thursday, that shouldn't matter, it & Friday look like the more slam dunk 90s.  Yeah OP Euro for now was a faster outlier than the EPS & GFS as to the weekend cool down.  All have Sunday nicer.  

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PHL barely hanging on to a below normal June tempwise; next week will give us yet another warmer than 1981-2010 summer month.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

I know you are saying what it is saying, know what I am saying? :blink2:  Semantical being an 89 vs 90 but Tuesday/Wednesday could fall short pending the timing of clouds/pcpn for Tuesday and how much (cough) cooler air is left aloft for Wednesday.  GFS wants to muster some storms with trof on Thursday, that shouldn't matter, it & Friday look like the more slam dunk 90s.  Yeah OP Euro for now was a faster outlier than the EPS & GFS as to the weekend cool down.  All have Sunday nicer.  

I know what I’m saying, but is what your saying, is what I’m saying? Then we have to ask ourselves are our sayings the same as Chris’s saying?

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38 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I know what I’m saying, but is what your saying, is what I’m saying? Then we have to ask ourselves are our sayings the same as Chris’s saying?

How did I become involved? You know what I am saying? 

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1 hour ago, cbelke said:

How did I become involved? You know what I am saying? 

I’m trying to figure out what gigi is saying before I can figure out what you’re saying 

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14 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I’m trying to figure out what gigi is saying before I can figure out what you’re saying 

OUCH!!!

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I’m trying to figure out what gigi is saying before I can figure out what you’re saying 

Say what?

 

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Anyway congrats to a hyperventilating new GFS.  I moused over pivotal and it had a 100 over PHL too.  While there are no new soundings for the new GFGS, the old GFS gave this contradiction of the maxt macros which are usually pretty good and the actual 😣 forecast 2M temp.  Either way we are talking 90s.

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Lack of mixing (underforecasting wind, there will be more) turns into baking the asphalt at right hand turn superadiabatic rates.

I also do think that this FV3 is worse than the previous GFS when it comes to convective pcpn, it was dreadfully too low last week even though it was predicting hours upon hours of measurable and this only adds to the baked Alaska solutions.  If Tuesday pcpn underwhelms, that would assist a higher thru the 90s outcome. 

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Would rather have the every day rain than what we are staring down next week low to mid 90s, no thanks.

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Oh well 90+ have to happen sometime and I’ll run old central AC and cross my fingers. Don’t run AC all summer just on hot and humid days. One of these days it will give up the ghost, probably in the middle of a heatwave. Have not run AC yet this year.

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