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Rainshadow

FV3GFS Says I Can Forecast 100s IN PHL Too Thread!

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95F or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90F, 92F, 91F, 90F, 87F 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18 (89F) ;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.  wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 (93F)   with an 85F (66F) dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point); 99F on 7/18 (89F) (with 83F (77F) dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 (89F) & 7/19 (95F) ;  99F (96F) on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24

06z on 7/9...................101F on 7/20 (97F)  with an 84F (73F) dew point;  99F on 7/21 (98F) with an 81 (73F) dew point. 

                                        5 days of 97F+  7/18-7/22.    wrong, wrong, right, right, wrong

12z on 7/9...................100F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/9...................100F on 7/23; 99F on 7/25

00z on 7/10.................102F (97F) on 7/20 

12z on 7/11.................100F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)                                              108F (96F) in CAE on 7/21, congrats

06z on 7/12.................101F (98F) on 7/21 

12z on 7/12.................99F  on 7/20 (97F) ,  100F on 7/21 (98F) (Euro high 80F (98F) ), 100F on 7/22 (94F)   & 101F on 7/23. 

12z on 7/13.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20

00z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20;   GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/14................100F on 7/19 (95F) & 7/20 (97F) , 99F (94F)  on 7/22

00z on 7/15.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20;  GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21 

00z on 7/16................Euro 100F on 7/20 (97F) , 99F (98F) on 7/21

12z on 7/16.................Euro 101F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F) .

00z on 7/17................Euro 104F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)

12z on 7/17.................99F (97F) on 7/20,  100F on 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/18.................Euro 100F on 7/21 (98F)

  

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F (96F) on 7/17

18z on 7/6...................99F (98F) on 7/21 

18z on 7/12.................99F on 7/26

00z on 7/13.................Euro 99F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/15.................99F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/15.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/16.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21  (98F)

12z on 7/16................99F on 7/20 (97F) 

18z on 7/16................99F on 7/20  (97F)

00z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

06z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/17.................99F on 7/20 (97F)

00z on 7/18.................99F on 7/21  (98F) 

00z on 7/19.................Euro 99F on 7/20 (97F)

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95F or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90F, 92F, 91F, 90F, 87F 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18 (89F) ;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.  wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 (93F)   with an 85F (66F) dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point); 99F on 7/18 (89F) (with 83F (77F) dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 (89F) & 7/19 (95F) ;  99F (96F) on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24

06z on 7/9...................101F on 7/20 (97F)  with an 84F (73F) dew point;  99F on 7/21 (98F) with an 81 (73F) dew point. 

                                        5 days of 97F+  7/18-7/22.    wrong, wrong, right, right, wrong

12z on 7/9...................100F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/9...................100F on 7/23 (77F); 99F on 7/25

00z on 7/10.................102F (97F) on 7/20 

12z on 7/11.................100F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)                                              108F (96F) in CAE on 7/21, congrats

06z on 7/12.................101F (98F) on 7/21 

12z on 7/12.................99F  on 7/20 (97F) ,  100F on 7/21 (98F) (Euro high 80F (98F) ), 100F on 7/22 (94F)   & 101F on 7/23 (77F)

12z on 7/13.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20

00z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20;   GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/14................100F on 7/19 (95F) & 7/20 (97F) , 99F (94F)  on 7/22

00z on 7/15.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20;  GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21 

00z on 7/16................Euro 100F on 7/20 (97F) , 99F (98F) on 7/21

12z on 7/16.................Euro 101F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F) .

00z on 7/17................Euro 104F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)

12z on 7/17.................99F (97F) on 7/20,  100F on 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/18.................Euro 100F on 7/21 (98F)

  

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F (96F) on 7/17

18z on 7/6...................99F (98F) on 7/21 

18z on 7/12.................99F on 7/26

00z on 7/13.................Euro 99F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/15.................99F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/15.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/16.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21  (98F)

12z on 7/16................99F on 7/20 (97F) 

18z on 7/16................99F on 7/20  (97F)

00z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

06z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/17.................99F on 7/20 (97F)

00z on 7/18.................99F on 7/21  (98F) 

00z on 7/19.................Euro 99F on 7/20 (97F)

# of GFS Forecasts of 100F or higher:   25

# of ECMWF Forecasts of 100F or higher:  10

Actual # of 100 Degree Days @ PHL:  ZERO

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do you like when the gfs spits out .01 qpf for philly, yet has no cloud cover?

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On 7/26/2019 at 9:54 AM, tombo82685 said:

do you like when the gfs spits out .01 qpf for philly, yet has no cloud cover?

Lol, I have to find the other ridiculous run of the GFS I saw. 

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Lol, I have to find the other ridiculous run of the GFS I saw. 

Here, 26 consecutive three hour periods with measurable.  He said I can't wait for the new GFS.  He said the old GFS just forecast measurable non stop, what a farce.

00.JPG.5658ee36dd523e9bacc836d5e78918a3.JPG

He now says, bring back the old GFS.

 

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95F or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90F, 92F, 91F, 90F, 87F 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18 (89F) ;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.  wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 (93F)   with an 85F (66F) dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point); 99F on 7/18 (89F) (with 83F (77F) dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 (89F) & 7/19 (95F) ;  99F (96F) on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24  (85F)

06z on 7/9...................101F on 7/20 (97F)  with an 84F (73F) dew point;  99F on 7/21 (98F) with an 81 (73F) dew point. 

                                        5 days of 97F+  7/18-7/22.    wrong, wrong, right, right, wrong

12z on 7/9...................100F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/9...................100F on 7/23 (77F); 99F on 7/25 (87F)

00z on 7/10.................102F (97F) on 7/20 

12z on 7/11.................100F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)                                              108F (96F) in CAE on 7/21, congrats

06z on 7/12.................101F (98F) on 7/21 

12z on 7/12.................99F  on 7/20 (97F) ,  100F on 7/21 (98F) (Euro high 80F (98F) ), 100F on 7/22 (94F)   & 101F on 7/23 (77F)

12z on 7/13.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20

00z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20;   GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/14................100F on 7/19 (95F) & 7/20 (97F) , 99F (94F)  on 7/22

00z on 7/15.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20;  GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21 

00z on 7/16................Euro 100F on 7/20 (97F) , 99F (98F) on 7/21

12z on 7/16.................Euro 101F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F) .

00z on 7/17................Euro 104F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)

12z on 7/17.................99F (97F) on 7/20,  100F on 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/18.................Euro 100F on 7/21 (98F)

  

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F (96F) on 7/17

18z on 7/6...................99F (98F) on 7/21 

18z on 7/12.................99F (88F) on 7/26

00z on 7/13.................Euro 99F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/15.................99F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/15.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/16.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21  (98F)

12z on 7/16................99F on 7/20 (97F) 

18z on 7/16................99F on 7/20  (97F)

00z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

06z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/17.................99F on 7/20 (97F)

00z on 7/18.................99F on 7/21  (98F) 

00z on 7/19.................Euro 99F on 7/20 (97F)

06z on 8/7..................99F on 8/22  

# of GFS Forecasts of 100F or higher:   25

# of ECMWF Forecasts of 100F or higher:  10

Actual # of 100 Degree Days @ PHL:  ZERO

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Somehow it keeps on pouring in VAY, but the GFS keeps on saying, 100s for you:

Also measurable with clear skies, quite the feat for us.

4.JPG.5e91282ac83de56e5c556f592f850621.JPG

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Somehow it keeps on pouring in VAY, but the GFS keeps on saying, 100s for you:

Also measurable with clear skies, quite the feat for us.

 

Do you like when the 6z gfs has low 90s for philly, yet upper 70s to low 80s for highs in ptw on thursday ?

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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Do you like when the 6z gfs has low 90s for philly, yet upper 70s to low 80s for highs in ptw on thursday ?

You know, that urban heat island...  ;)

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95F or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90F, 92F, 91F, 90F, 87F 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18 (89F) ;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.  wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and wrong.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 (93F)   with an 85F (66F) dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point); 99F on 7/18 (89F) (with 83F (77F) dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (96F) (with 82F (70F) dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 (89F) & 7/19 (95F) ;  99F (96F) on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24  (85F)

06z on 7/9...................101F on 7/20 (97F)  with an 84F (73F) dew point;  99F on 7/21 (98F) with an 81 (73F) dew point. 

                                        5 days of 97F+  7/18-7/22.    wrong, wrong, right, right, wrong

12z on 7/9...................100F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/9...................100F on 7/23 (77F); 99F on 7/25 (87F)

00z on 7/10.................102F (97F) on 7/20 

12z on 7/11.................100F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)                                              108F (96F) in CAE on 7/21, congrats

06z on 7/12.................101F (98F) on 7/21 

12z on 7/12.................99F  on 7/20 (97F) ,  100F on 7/21 (98F) (Euro high 80F (98F) ), 100F on 7/22 (94F)   & 101F on 7/23 (77F)

12z on 7/13.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20

00z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/14.................Euro 100F (97F) on 7/20;   GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/14................100F on 7/19 (95F) & 7/20 (97F) , 99F (94F)  on 7/22

00z on 7/15.................Euro 101F (97F) on 7/20;  GFS 101F (98F) on 7/21 

00z on 7/16................Euro 100F on 7/20 (97F) , 99F (98F) on 7/21

12z on 7/16.................Euro 101F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F) .

00z on 7/17................Euro 104F on 7/20 (97F) , 102F on 7/21 (98F)

12z on 7/17.................99F (97F) on 7/20,  100F on 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/18.................Euro 100F on 7/21 (98F)

  

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F (96F) on 7/17

18z on 7/6...................99F (98F) on 7/21 

18z on 7/12.................99F (88F) on 7/26

00z on 7/13.................Euro 99F (97F) on 7/20

12z on 7/15.................99F (98F) on 7/21

18z on 7/15.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

00z on 7/16.................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21  (98F)

12z on 7/16................99F on 7/20 (97F) 

18z on 7/16................99F on 7/20  (97F)

00z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

06z on 7/17................99F on 7/20 (97F) & 7/21 (98F)

18z on 7/17.................99F on 7/20 (97F)

00z on 7/18.................99F on 7/21  (98F) 

00z on 7/19.................Euro 99F on 7/20 (97F)

06z on 8/7..................99F on 8/22   (92F)

# of GFS Forecasts of 100F or higher:   25

# of ECMWF Forecasts of 100F or higher:  10

Actual # of 100 Degree Days @ PHL:  ZERO

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