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Rainshadow

FV3GFS Says I Can Forecast 100s IN PHL Too Thread!

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This was a nostalgic 00z/17th run, first non stop precip in the short term and this in la la land:

45544545.JPG.12b657126489024b3e9f9c1bf8bc6411.JPG

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It was even hotter than the legacy GFS!!!  (First image)  Way to go FV3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1.JPG.c138018887e38697a40b285d98ff40f1.JPG

3.JPG.ce1d3fc0f6fd42f517c8e54458ef13b8.JPG

2.JPG.2635489eea4800ddb226578cf4a9f27d.JPG

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Well no corrections to a lack of mixing issue with the legacy GFS.  Look at this forecast sounding and the predicted winds.  I don't know what the bump in the rug would be to correcting this, 240 consecutive hours of rain, but it is same old same old.  Change the core, summer superduperadiabatic lapse rate hot bias remains.

gfs_T2m_neus_29.png.14716d05aecfcd01a370382b856623d3.png

index.png.f483bc2b0493a9c3c2b1fbec28bf83a3.png

ccccc.JPG.9cc439f2ba9f2cde0feaff9d58a201df.JPG

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F  on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, already wrong.

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.

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13 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F  on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, already wrong.

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.

Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, already wrong.

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, already wrong.

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F on 7/6 with a 78F dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

do you like that?

I like that it keeps me busy.  Something about an idle mind......

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On 6/27/2019 at 8:29 PM, Rainshadow said:

Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, already wrong.

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.

Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F on 7/6 with a 78F dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.  7/3-7/5 all 92F or lower.

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83 dew point).

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F on 7/6 with a 78F dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

 

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erification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.  7/3-7/5 all 92F or lower.

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83 dew point).

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F on 7/6 with a 78F dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F on 7/17.

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.  7/3-7/6 all 92F or lower.

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83 dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point)

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F on 7/6 with a 78F dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/6...................99F on 7/21

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90, 92, 91, 90, 87 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83 dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 & 7/19;  99F on 7/17.

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F on 7/6 with a 78F dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/6...................99F on 7/21

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On 7/5/2019 at 8:10 AM, Rainshadow said:

 

1.JPG.484d4ba49cc13575c0fc578f919c815c.JPG

 

06z 7/5, but it is a humid heat....

2.JPG.f4b37afde0ddbb61354358571e23aab2.JPG

Aw, a 133 degree heat index isn't that bad. All we need to do is spray all buildings with liquid nitrogen.

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3 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Aw, a 133 degree heat index isn't that bad. All we need to do is spray all buildings with liquid nitrogen.

At least PHL is avoiding the 80F dew point over Paul's house, this day. :rolleyes:

 

gfs_T2m_neus_65.png

gfs_Td2m_neus_65.png

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90, 92, 91, 90, 87 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83F dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 & 7/19;  99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24

00z or 06z 7/9 there will be some, maybe on both if we get a "good" run.

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/6...................99F on 7/21

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9 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95 or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90, 92, 91, 90, 87 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83F dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 & 7/19;  99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24

00z or 06z 7/9 there will be some, maybe on both if we get a "good" run.

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/6...................99F on 7/21

Thank you 06z GFS for not disappointing.  Nothing like being hotter than the legacy GFS, you go model!!!!!!

2323232.JPG.9b47b9bb84556a8168bf5f17c281e144.JPG

 

6.JPG

7.JPG

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Verification in parentheses

 

00z on 6/17................100F (92F) on 6/27;  9 consecutive days of 90+ 6/24-7/2, actual (4)

00z on 6/27...............101F on 7/5 (91F) ;   7/3-7/7 all 95F or higher.  7/3-7/7:  90F, 92F, 91F, 90F, 87F 

00z on 7/5.................100F on 7/18;  8 consecutive days of 98F or higher 7/13-7/20.

06z on 7/5.................100F on 7/16 with an 85F dew point.

06z on 7/6.................100F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point); 99F on 7/18 (with 83F dew point).

06z on 7/7.................101F on 7/17 (with 82F dew point)

00z on 7/8..................100F on 7/18 & 7/19;  99F on 7/17.

18z on 7/8..................100F on 7/24

06z on 7/9...................101F on 7/20 with an 84F dew point;  99F on 7/21 with an 81 dew point.  5 days of 97F+  7/18-7/22.

 

Honorable mentions

06z on 6/28.................99F (90F)  on 7/6 with a 78F (72F)   dew point at 2 pm in the afternoon.

12z on 7/6...................99F on 7/17

18z on 7/6...................99F on 7/21

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